低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

日冕物质抛射及其伴生的射电辐射观测特征

统计分析了太阳活动周下降段(2003～2005年)发生的76个共生CME的射电爆发事件.射电爆发资料来自国家天文台和Culgoora的微波和米波频谱仪.在76个事件中有50个快速CME和26个慢速CME.从中发现,快速CME和慢速CME的产率分别随着太阳活动周的降低而下降和上升,这可能说明CME的产率与太阳活动周中日冕磁结构的位形和位置变化有关.同时也发现,射电爆发的类型和寿命有一个变化规律,即随着频率的降低射电爆发的寿命变长,此特征支持了伴生CME的Ⅱ型爆发统一模型的思想.另外还发现在厘米一分米波范围,CME开始前后,容易发生射电Ⅲ型爆发或快速精细结构.这说明射电辐射的精细结构可能是CME的前兆现象或CME早期发展阶段由于磁重联引发的低日冕小尺度磁扰动的结果.     

CCD photometry of five X-ray selected BL Lacertae objects

We present the results of the monitoring of a sample of 5 HBLs in the B, V and R bands during 2003–2008. All sources in our monitoring project show significant rapid optical variations, except 1ES 1959+650, however; for 1ES 1959+650, the gamma-ray variability on a timescale of ～7 hours has been observed by Holder et al. (Astrophys. J. 583:L9, 2003). Using these variability timescales, we estimate the black hole masses for each source with the Kerr black hole theory.     

Endogenic Au-Ag polymetallic ore deposits and ore-bearing potentiality of strata

The problem of ore-bearing potentiality of the strata involves metallogenic theory and ore-search orientation. Studies of the spatial distribution of endogenic Au-Ag polymetallic ore deposits in North Hebei indicated that the strata in which ore deposits occurred range in age from Paleozoic, Proterozoic to Mesozoic. In addition the ore deposits are characterized as being strata-bound in nature. The arise and establishment of “extracting” viewpoint may be attributed to the following three reasons: 1) influence by the idea of “ore-source bed”; 2) limitation of analytical techniques in the 1980s’ (especially gold element); and 3) a small number of samples (sampling locations were mostly disturbed by mineralization). Studies have shown that ore-forming materials would most probably come from the deep interior of the Earth. Deep-seated ore-bearing materials including Au-Ag polymetals were brought to the shallow levels by way of mantle plume-mantle sub-plume-mantle branch structure multi-stage evolution, finally leading to the formation of ore deposits.     

Mode of a spherical cavity’s thermo-elastodynamic response in a saturated porous medium for non-torsional loads

The thermo-hydro-elastodynamic model (THED), in which the thermo-osmosis and thermal-filtration phenomenon in a two-phase porous thermoelastic medium can be considered, was previously presented by the authors [Ganbin Liu, Kanghe Xie, Rongyue Zheng. Model of nonlinear coupled thermo-hydro-elastodynamics response for a saturated poroelastic medium. Sci China (Ser E) 2009;52(8):2373–83] and is used in this paper to investigate the thermo-elastodynamic response of a spherical cavity in a saturated poroelastic medium when subjected to a time-dependent non-torsional thermal/mechanical source. The Separated Variable Method is introduced, and the non-zero displacement potentials are expanded in terms of the Legendre polynomial. Solutions for the displacement, temperature increment, pore pressure and stress are obtained in the domain of the Laplace transform. Numerical results are also performed for different modes and are compared with the results of the thermoelastic model (TED) to ascertain the validity and the difference between these two models.     

淮南板集煤矿F512断层导水性分析及地面注浆加固

板集煤矿F512断层落差70m,存在着导通上覆新生界松散层水与下伏太原组岩溶水的威胁,同时,断层带的破碎岩体也将对巷道掘进和支护带来困难。该矿先后施工了3个水文地质钻孔进行抽水和压水试验,根据岩心鉴定成果和岩石RQD值,认为断层带的岩心较为破碎;依据抽水过程中的流量变化、水位降深值和水位恢复值等指标及压水试验中透水率分析,发现该断层的导水性较差,具有弱渗透性。参考相邻矿区的经验,决定对断层破碎岩体采用地面注浆方法进行加固。整个工种注入水泥浆1 600m3,破碎岩体得到了有效加固,巷道掘进顺利通过了F512断层。     

高位钻场长钻孔在淮南刘庄煤矿瓦斯抽采中的应用

刘庄煤矿东二采区121102工作面所开采的11-2煤层为非突出煤层,但在工作面回采期间,存在瓦斯突出的可能。为防止工作回风巷尤其是上隅角瓦斯超限,确保工作面的正常生产,同时兼顾瓦斯资源的抽采利用,施工了最大长度496m,钻孔直径133mm的瓦斯抽采孔。实际应用表明,该孔投入使用后,整个工作面回采过程中均未发生过瓦斯超限现象,说明利用大口径长距离钻孔取代巷道抽放瓦斯是完全可行的。本文介绍的高位钻场长钻孔的设计、施工和瓦斯抽采情况,可以为今后同类工作面中长钻孔的施工提供借鉴。     

空心块体水沙动力及泥沙淤积特性研究

空心块体具有良好的阻水和促淤功能,近年来被广泛用于生态修复工程。本文结合水槽试验及Flow-3D数值模拟,分析了开敞型和半封闭型空心块体的阻水效应和泥沙淤积特性。结果表明:空心块体的开孔率对内部水流流速、紊动强度起主导作用,开孔率较小的半开敞型空心块体减速、制紊效果更强;开敞型和半封闭型空心块体近底层悬沙浓度分别增大56%和75%,两者均有利于促进泥沙在块体内部淤积,近底层水流紊动越强,泥沙淤积形态差异越大;空心块体所营造的低流速、泥沙微淤、内外连通的水沙环境是大型底栖生物的生境需求,半封闭型空心块体内部的低紊动水流结构更有利于大型底栖生物的栖息、繁衍。     

Dynamic Response Analysis and Vibration Control for A Fixed-Bottom Offshore Wind Turbine Subjected to Multiple External Excitations

For the offshore wind turbines installed in earthquake areas, their operation is affected by seismic loads in addition to wind and wave loads. Therefore, it is necessary to study the dynamic responses and vibration control of the wind turbines. In previous studies, the structural responses of offshore wind turbines are usually investigated in the parked case, while the blade rotation effect is usually not considered. The evaluation on the structural responses may be inaccurate under this conditi...     

Self-Weight Penetration Characteristics of the Suction Foundation with Different Diameters in Sand

During the self-weight penetration process of the suction foundation on the dense sand seabed, due to the shallow penetration depth, the excess seepage seawater from the outside to the inside of the foundation may cause the negative pressure penetration process failure. Increasing the self-weight penetration depth has become an important problem for the safe construction of the suction foundation. The new suction anchor foundation has been proposed, and the self-weight penetration characteristics of the traditional suction foundation and the new suction anchor foundation are studied and compared through laboratory experiments and analysis. For the above two foundation types, by considering five foundation diameters and two bottom shapes, 20 models are tested with the same penetration energy. The effects of different foundation diameters on the penetration depth, the soil plug characteristics, and the surrounding sand layer are studied. The results show that the penetration depth of the new suction foundation is smaller than that of the traditional suction foundation. With the same penetration energy, the penetration depth of the suction foundation becomes shallower as the diameter increases. The smaller the diameter of the suction foundation, the more likely it is to be fully plugged, and the smaller the height of the soil plug will be. In the stage of self-weight penetration, the impact cavity appears around the foundation, which may affect the stability of the suction foundation.