Simulated responses of Pinus halepensis forest productivity to climatic change and CO2 increase using a statistical model

Tree ring chronologies provide long-term records of growth in natural environmental conditions and may be used to evaluate impacts of climatic change and CO₂ increase on forest productivity. This study focuses on 21 Pinus halepensis forest stands in calcareous Provence (in the south-east of France). A chronology of net primary productivity (NPP) both for the 20th century and for each stand was estimated using tree ring data (width and density). The response of each stand to climate in terms of NPP was statistically modelled using response functions. Anomalies between estimated NPP and NPP reconstructed by response functions were calculated to evaluate the fertilising effect of CO₂ increase on tree growth. The changes in anomalies during the 20th century were attributed to the effect of CO₂ increase. A multiplying factor (β) linking CO₂ concentration and stand productivity was then calculated, on the basis of the trend observed during the 20th century. In this study, the value of the β factor obtained under natural conditions (β=0.50) is consistent with those from controlled CO₂ enrichment experiments. Both response functions and the β factor were used to predict NPP changes for a 2×CO₂ scenario. The 2×CO₂ climate was obtained using predictions from Météo France's ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaled to Marseilles meteorological station. NPP increased significantly for nine stands solely when the climatic effect was taken into account. The main factors responsible for this enhancement were increased winter and early spring temperatures. When the fertilising effect of the CO₂ increase was added, NPP was significantly enhanced for 14 stands (i.e. NPP enhancement ranged from 8% to 55%). Although the effects of global change were slightly detectable during the 20th century, their acceleration is likely to lead to great changes in the future productivity of P. halepensis forests.     

The 15 August 2007 Peru Earthquake and Tsunami: Influence of the Source Characteristics on the Tsunami Heights

The tsunami caused by the 2007 Peru earthquake (M_w 8.0) provoked less damage than by the seismic shaking itself (numerous casualties due to the earthquake in the vicinity of Pisco). However, it propagated across the Pacific Ocean and small waves were observed on one tide gauge in Taiohae Bay (Nuku Hiva, Marquesas, French Polynesia). We invert seismological data to recover the rupture pattern in two steps. The first step uses surface waves to find a solution for the moment tensor, and the second step uses body waves to compute the slip distribution in the source area. We find the slip distribution to consist of two main slip patches in the source area. The inversion of surface waves yields a scalar moment of 8.9 10²⁰ Nm, and body-wave inversion gives 1.4 10²¹ Nm. The inversion of tsunami data recorded on a single deep ocean sensor also can be used to compute a fault slip pattern (yielding a scalar moment of 1.1 10²¹ Nm). We then use these different sources to model the tsunami propagation across the Pacific Ocean, especially towards Nuku Hiva. While the source model taken from the body-wave inversion yields computed tsunami waves systematically too low with respect to observations (on the central Pacific Ocean DART buoy as on the Polynesian tide gauge), the source model established from the surface-wave inversion is more efficient to fit the observations, confirming that the tsunami is sensitive to the low frequency component of the source. Finally we also discuss the modeling of the late tsunami arrivals in Taiohae Bay using several friction coefficients for the sea bottom.     

青藏高原东缘汶川地震断层陡坎类型与级联破裂模型(英文)

The post-earthquake field investigations reveal that the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake of 12th May 2008 ruptured three NE-striking imbricate reverse faults and another NW-trending reverse fault, along the middle Longmenshan fold-and-thrust belt at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau.     

Microseismic feasibility studies – assessing the probability of success of monitoring projects

In this paper we present a workflow for microseismic feasibility studies that allows a thorough assessment of the probability of success of the monitoring project to be made. The workflow includes the following elements: assessment of the value of information to establish the business case; identification of hardware options to investigate deployment options; survey of analogue cases to confirm the do‐ability of the project; modelling of event location errors and detectability to establish the most favourable array geometry; generation of full waveform synthetics to anticipate undesired seismic features. A study comprising all these elements provides the reference frame for discussions with service companies, limiting misunderstandings and avoiding missed opportunities.     

Control of the repeatability of high frequency multibeam echosounder backscatter by using natural reference areas

The increased use of backscatter measurements in time series for environmental monitoring necessitates the comparability of individual results. With the current lack of pre-calibrated multibeam echosounder systems for absolute backscatter measurement, a pragmatic solution is the use of natural reference areas for ensuring regular assessment of the backscatter measurement repeatability. This method mainly relies on the assumption of a sufficiently stable reference area regarding its backscatter signature. The aptitude of a natural area to provide a stable and uniform backscatter response must be carefully considered and demonstrated by a sufficiently long time-series of measurements. Furthermore, this approach requires a strict control of the acquisition and processing parameters. If all these conditions are met, stability check and relative calibration of a system are possible by comparison with the averaged backscatter values for the area. Based on a common multibeam echosounder and sampling campaign completed by available bathymetric and backscatter time series, the suitability as a backscatter reference area of three different candidates was evaluated. Two among them, Carré Renard and Kwinte, prove to be excellent choices, while the third one, Western Solent, lacks sufficient data over time, but remains a valuable candidate. The case studies and the available backscatter data on these areas prove the applicability of this method. The expansion of the number of commonly used reference areas and the growth of the number of multibeam echosounder controlled thereon could greatly contribute to the further development of quantitative applications based on multibeam echosounder backscatter measurements.