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941.
鼠疫疫源地的环境变化对鼠疫的传播扩散具有重要影响。本文基于2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年及2018年五期土地利用和年最大化合成NDVI数据,选取斑块面积占比、景观形状指数、最大斑块比例和斑块破碎度、周长面积分维数、蔓延度指数、多样性指数、均匀指数及聚集指数,定量分析了内蒙古长爪沙鼠疫源地土地利用格局和植被格局的结构特征及演变规律。结果表明:① 2000—2015年,内蒙古长爪沙鼠疫源地内土地利用整体稳定,变化较小,2015年后变化较大,主要表现为不同草地之间的转换。② 2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年NDVI介于(0.056,0.37]的草地在疫源地内占据主体地位,面积占比分别为77.45%、83.61%、83.03%和82.47%。到2018年,该类草地面积显著减少,面积占比下降到48.44%。与之对应,2000—2015年,NDVI介于(0.37,0.83]的草地面积占比为22.54%、16.39%、16.96%和17.4%,而2018年,该类草地的面积显著增加到51.34%。③ 2000—2015年,各草地类别表现出类内高聚集分布,类间分界明显的特征。到2018年,各类别草地向多个方向扩散,并在整个疫源地内趋于均衡分布,植被类内连通性增加,类间分界逐渐平滑。该变化使得内蒙古鼠疫流行风险呈增加态势。本研究对厘清长爪沙鼠疫源地地表景观和生态环境的变化、预测鼠疫潜在风险、预防人间鼠疫暴发具有科学参考价值。 相似文献
942.
以江苏省苏南地区为案例地,获取Airbnb网站房源数据,运用泰尔指数、DBSCAN聚类算法等分析方法,从多尺度视角对共享住宿价格的空间分异进行探讨,采用OLS回归模型和分位数回归模型从房源内部和房源外部相结合的角度对比分析共享住宿价格的影响因素。结果表明:(1)从苏南整体和各地市来看,共享住宿房源价格在城市内部和区县内部的差异较为明显,在城市之间和区县之间的差异较小;(2)不同价格水平共享住宿的空间聚类中心存在显著差异,高、中、低档次共享住宿对于水域的依赖逐渐降低,整体上,空间聚类中心呈现“东多西少,南多北少”分布;(3)共享住宿房源价格是内部属性和外部属性共同耦合驱动作用的结果,对比来看,房源价格受到内部属性如房源卫生间个数等指标的影响较大,受到外部属性的影响较小,同时不同影响因素对于同等价格水平共享住宿房源的作用方向和影响程度存在明显差异性和分层性。 相似文献
943.
In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO2 emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO2 emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO2 emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved. Policy relevance In signing the Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to the global 2°C target. Results from this article could be used to justify low-carbon development policies and negotiations. While many still doubt the feasibility of a low-carbon pathway to support the global 2°C target, the results suggest that such a pathway can be realistically achieved. This conclusion should increase confidence and guide the policy framework further to make possible China's low-carbon development. Related policies and measures, such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency, economic structure optimization, technology innovation, low-carbon investment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) development, should be further enhanced. Furthermore, China can play a larger role in the international negotiations process. In the global context, the 2°C target could be reaffirmed and a global regime on an emissions mitigation protocol could be framed with countries’ emissions target up to 2050. 相似文献
944.
945.
三种再分析资料的高空温度与中国探空温度资料的季节平均特征对比分析 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
利用中国105个测站的探空资料以及NCEP/NCAR、ERA和JRA三种再分析资料,采用线性趋势和EOF分析等多种统计分析方法,对再分析资料的季节平均高空温度在中国区域的可信度进行了分析.结果表明,在数值上,春、夏、秋季的分布形势较为相似,大多表现出NCEP资料在对流层上层与探空资料更为接近,ERA和JRA资料在对流层中下层与探空资料更为接近,而冬季与其他季节差别较大;在描述长期变化趋势方面,不同季节不同资料的情况不一致,特别是夏季我国南部地区的对流层中层存在较大范围的降温趋势;在不同区域上,相比于探空资料,三种再分析资料在我国北方的描述能力比南方好,东部比西部好;在时空变化特征方面,三种再分析资料第一模态的分布在不同季节差异较大,而第二模态的分布在各季节则较为一致,大多表现出整层温度南北反位相变化的特征. 相似文献
946.
Freshwater is recharged mainly by rainfall and stored inland for a period of time, which is directly affected by its storage capability. The storage capability of river basins has different spatiotemporal features that are important for the predictability of freshwater resources. However, the estimation of freshwater storage capability(FSC) remains a challenge due to the lack of observations and quantification indices. Here, we use a metric that characterizes hydrological "inertia"after rainfalls to analyze FSC over the 194 largest global major river basins based on satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) and simulations from the Community Land Model version 5(CLM5). During2003–16, the global land was observed to retain 28% of precipitation after one month based on GRACE observations, and the simulation depicts that the retained proportions decrease from 42% after one day to 26% after one month, with smaller FSC partly attributed to wetter conditions and higher vegetation densities. The root zone contributes about 40% to the global land FSC on daily to monthly time scales. As the time scale increases, the contribution from the surface soil decreases from 26% to 14%, while the contribution from the deep soil increases from 4% to 10%. Snow contributes over20% of land FSC, especially over high latitudes. With six decades of CLM5 long-term simulations, it is revealed that the change of FSC in most basins is related to internal climate variability. The FSC of river basins which displays the proportion of precipitation retained on land is worthy of further attention regarding the predictability of water resources. 相似文献
947.
Estimating groundwater recharge beneath irrigated farmland using environmental tracers fluoride, chloride and sulfate 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Accurate recharge estimation is essential for effective groundwater management, especially in the North China Plain, where irrigation return flow is significant to vertical recharge but brings difficulty for recharge estimation. Three environmental tracers (F?, Cl? and SO4 2?) were used to estimate vertical recharge based on the mass balance and cumulative methods. Four boreholes were dry-drilled to 5–25 m depth beneath irrigated farmland and one was drilled to 5 m beneath non-irrigated woodland; soil samples were collected in all boreholes at set depths. The results indicated that F?, Cl? and SO4 2?were suitable tracers beneath the non-irrigated woodland, yielding recharge rates of 16.9, 18.8 and 19.4 mm/year, respectively. Recharge estimation was not straightforward when taking account of crop type, irrigation and/or fertilizer use. After comparing with previous research, conclusions were drawn: Cl? was an appropriate tracer for irrigated farmland when taking account of Cl? input from irrigation and absorption by crops; recharge rates were 65.9–126.8 mm/year. However, F? was a more suitable tracer for irrigated regions where account is made of the proportion of precipitation to irrigation return flow, provided low F? concentrations can be measured reliably. 相似文献
948.
Xing Zheng Wu 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(5):739-755
In probabilistic slope stability analysis, the influence of cross correlation of the soil strength parameters, cohesion and internal friction angle, on the reliability index has not been investigated fully. In this paper, an expedient technique is presented for probabilistic slope stability analysis that involves sampling a series of combinations of soil strength parameters through a copula as input to an existing conventional deterministic slope stability program. The approach organises the individual marginal probability density distributions of componential shear strength as a bivariate joint distribution by the copula function to characterise the dependence between shear strengths. The technique can be used to generate an arbitrarily large sample of soil strength parameters. Examples are provided to illustrate the use of the copula-based sampling method to estimate the reliability index of given slopes, and the computed results are compared with the first-order reliability method, considering the correlated random variables. A sensitivity study was conducted to assess the influence of correlational measurements on the reliability index. The approach is simple and can be applied in practice with little effort beyond what is necessary in a conventional analysis. 相似文献
949.
The Xinjie layered intrusion in the Panxi region,SW China,hosts both Fe-Ti oxide and platinum-group element(PGE) sulfide mineralization.The intrusion can be divided,from the base upward,into UnitsⅠ,ⅡandⅢ,in terms of mineral assemblages.UnitsⅠandⅡare mainly composed of wehrlite and clino-pyroxenite, whereas UnitⅢis mainly composed of gabbro.PGE sulfide-rich layers mainly occur in Unit I, whereas thick Fe-Ti oxide-rich layers mainly occur in UnitⅢ.An ilmenite-rich layer occurs at the top of UnitⅠ.Fe-Ti oxides include magnetite and ilmenite.Small amounts of cumulus and intercumulus magnetite occur in UnitsⅠandⅡ.Cumulus magnetite grains are commonly euhedral and enclosed within olivine and clinopyroxene.They have high Cr2O3 contents ranging from 6.02 to 22.5 wt.%,indicating that they are likely an early crystallized phase from magmas.Intercumulus magnetite that usually displays ilmenite exsolution occupies the interstices between cumulus olivine crystals and coexists with interstitial clinopyroxene and plagioclase.Intercumulus magnetite has Cr2O3 ranging from 1.65 to 6.18 wt.%, lower than cumulus magnetite.The intercumulus magnetite may have crystallized from the trapped liquid.Large amounts of magnetite in UnitⅢcontains Cr2O3(<0.28 wt.%) much lower than magnetite in UnitsⅠandⅡ.The magnetite in UnitⅢis proposed to be accumulated from a Fe-Ti-rich melt.The Fe-Ti-rich melt is estimated to contain 35.9 wt.%of SiO2,26.9 wt.%of FeOt,8.2 wt.%of TiO2,13.2 wt.%of CaO, 8.3 wt.%of MgO,5.5 wt.%of Al2O3 and 1.0 wt.%of P2O5.The composition is comparable with the Fe-rich melts in the Skaergaard and Sept Iles intrusions.Paired non-reactive microstructures,granophyre pockets and ilmenite-rich intergrowths,are representative of Si-rich melt and Fe-Ti-rich melt,and are the direct evidence for the existence of an immiscible Fe-Ti-rich melt that formed from an evolved ferro-basaltic magma. 相似文献
950.
由于网络上每天有海量的新闻报道产生,新闻推荐已经成为减轻用户信息负载、实现个性化新闻信息获取的重要途径,并被广泛用于新闻网站和新闻APP中以提升用户体验.不同于传统的商品推荐,在新闻推荐中新的新闻文章产生速度很快,而且新闻的语义信息需要结合整体新闻文本去理解,给传统的基于ID和基于特征的推荐算法带来了很大的挑战.此外,用户的新闻阅读兴趣存在高度多样性和动态性的特点,使得准确的用户建模变得非常困难.本文介绍了一些基于深度学习的个性化新闻推荐算法,并探讨了新闻推荐未来的一些可行的方向. 相似文献