山东及附近海域构造环境剪应力场分析

利用山东数字地震台网的地震波形记录,选取2007年以来台网记录清晰的ML≥2．0数字地震波形资料,计算每次地震的环境剪应力值τ0和矩震级MW,并分析其相关关系;结合山东地区地质构造和地震活动性特点,对胶东半岛及北部海域、南黄海北部地区、沂沭带地区、冀鲁豫交界地区应力场分布和时空变化进行细致分析,并探讨其区域特征及与地震活动性的关系。     

Prediction of PM10 and SO2 exceedances to control air pollution in the Bay of Algeciras,Spain

In this paper, the authors apply different classification techniques in order to provide 24 h advance forecasts of the daily peaks of SO₂ and PM10 concentrations in the Bay of Algeciras. K-nearest-neighbours, multilayer neural network with backpropagation and support vector machines (SVMs) are the classification methods used. The aim of this research is to obtain a suitable prediction model that would enable us to predict the peaks of pollutant concentrations in critical meteorological situations caused by the widespread existing industry and population in the area. A resampling strategy with twofold crossvalidation has been applied, using different quality indexes to evaluate the performance of the prediction models. SVM models achieved better true positive rate and accuracy (ACC) quality indexes. Results of ACC index value of 0.795 for PM10 and 0.755 for SO₂ showed the ability of the model to predict peaks and non-peaks correctly.     

混凝土的入模温度和水化热对青藏直流输电线路冻土桩基温度特性的影响

施工过程中混凝土的入模温度和水化热对多年冻土区桩基施工期间的热稳定性具有重要影响. 针对该问题,利用有限元方法定量研究了±400 kV青藏直流输电线路冻土区锥柱基础入模温度、水化热和含冰量对桩基回冻过程、温度场变化和桩底融化深度的影响规律. 结果表明：水化热影响下,桩基中心温度在第3天达到最高,桩底滞后1 d,基坑表面受其影响较小,主要受环境温度影响;第24天,桩底出现最大融化层,随着入模温度增加,融化层厚度相应增加,入模温度为6℃时融化层厚度为34 cm,15℃时为55 cm;入模温度越高,回冻时间越长,当入模温度为6℃时,完全回冻需经历52 d,15℃时,回冻时间将增加7 d. 含冰量对桩底融化深度有影响,含冰量越大底部融化深度越小;冻土年平均地温是影响桩底融化深度的重要因素,少冰高温（-0.52℃）、低温（-1.5℃和-2.5℃）冻土条件下,最大融化层厚度分别为38 cm、34 cm和25 cm. 基于上述结果,在多年冻土地区的桩基工程,建议混凝土入模温度为6~8℃,底部碎石垫层至少40 cm.     

关于创建川滇水库地震监测预报研究实验场的建议

川滇两省水能资源开发量位居全国前茅,尤其是川滇交界区域的雅砻江、大渡河、金沙江流域的水能资源富甲全国,在西部大开发中的战略地位极其重要,国家即将在此建成一个位于全球破坏性地震多发区域的巨型水库密集区。具有全球难寻的监测、预报、研究水库地震的资源优势。建议用完全开放的创新思维,在此区域创建水库地震监测预报研究实验场,具有重要的防震减灾现实意义和历史意义。     

Palaeoenvironment of mid- to late Holocene loess deposit of the southern margin of the Tarim Basin,NW China

Holocene environmental history in the Tarim Basin and the Taklimakan Desert is known mainly from isolated eolian and lacustrine deposits and remain puzzling. Here we present an adequately preserved loess section, covering the past 5000 years, at a highland (2,850 m a.s.l) on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains. Pollen preserved in the section reveal a drying trend with significant moisture fluctuations around 3000–2600 cal yr BP and 1800 cal yr BP at the study site. Comparing the pollen, grain size from the same section provides a different scene occurred in the Tarim basin and the Taklimakan desert. Comparison of grain size to A/C ration of pollen suggests that active sand southward shifting in south margin of the desert is coincident with increasing moisture condition at the section locality, implying a casual link. This moisture pattern occurred at the upper and lower elevation of the slope is best explained by the vertical variation of local precipitation along the slope.     

Recent Advances in Predictability Studies in China （1999-2002）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed,which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealedby NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate,which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition,in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance and the correlation coefficient are calculated to explore the distribution characteristics of the mean-square errors.Finally, the predictability of short-term climate prediction is investigated by using statistical methods or numerical simulation methods. It is demonstrated that the predictability of short-term climate in China depends not only on the region of China being investigated, but also on the time scale and the atmospheric internal dynamical process.     

气象部门出纳日记账系统在国库集中支付中的应用

利用改进后的《出纳日记账处理系统》,按支出科目的类、款、项进行分类,登记零余额账户的银行存款日记账,达到《气象部门财政国库管理制度改革试点资金支付管理办法实施细则》关于登记银行日记账簿的要求。     

Accelerating the discontinuous Galerkin method for seismic wave propagation simulations using multiple GPUs with CUDA and MPI

We have successfully ported an arbitrary high-order discontinuous Galerkin method for solving the three-dimensional isotropic elastic wave equation on unstructured tetrahedral meshes to multiple Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) using the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) of NVIDIA and Message Passing Interface (MPI) and obtained a speedup factor of about 28.3 for the single-precision version of our codes and a speedup factor of about 14.9 for the double-precision version. The GPU used in the comparisons is NVIDIA Tesla C2070 Fermi, and the CPU used is Intel Xeon W5660. To effectively overlap inter-process communication with computation, we separate the elements on each subdomain into inner and outer elements and complete the computation on outer elements and fill the MPI buffer first. While the MPI messages travel across the network, the GPU performs computation on inner elements, and all other calculations that do not use information of outer elements from neighboring subdomains. A significant portion of the speedup also comes from a customized matrix–matrix multiplication kernel, which is used extensively throughout our program. Preliminary performance analysis on our parallel GPU codes shows favorable strong and weak scalabilities.     

Ecohydrological evolution model on riparian vegetation in hyperarid regions and its validation in the lower reach of Tarim River

The evolution of the ecohydrological system driven by external climatic forcing and internal feedbacks between vegetation and hydrology, which is more remarkable in arid and semiarid regions, has attracted substantial research attention in recent years. To examine critically the state‐of‐the‐art assumptions and dynamic equations used in the evolution study of an ecohydrological system, the rule of proceeding from simplicity to complexity should be followed. The riparian vegetation ecohydrological system in hyperarid regions (e.g. the lower Tarim River) can serve as a starting point given its simplicity, which has been seldom examined before in terms of system evolution. Further, the water transfer practice from 2000 to 2006 in the lower Tarim River serves as a valuable prototype experiment for model validation. This is because the remarkable changes in groundwater and vegetation in the area have taken place within a shorter period and thus can be easily observed. In the present study, the ecohydrological evolution model on riparian vegetation (ERV model) in hyperarid regions was proposed by coupling groundwater movement and vegetation dynamics. In the ERV model, the groundwater table serves as a critical feedback variable that determines the vegetation dynamics (colonization and mortality) and is determined by vegetation transpiration other than groundwater movement. The monitored groundwater table by wells and satellite‐observed vegetation coverage from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer are used for model validation. The simulation results show the good performance of the ERV model with uncalibrated parameters. It was also calibrated manually using a multiobjective method, and the fine‐tuned parameters are close to the uncalibrated ones, indicating the robustness of the model. The analysis shows further that the increased evapotranspiration is substantially due to the water transfer and thus the vegetation growth, which implies the importance of ecohydrological coupling for long‐term hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.