Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

Seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka and its applications to the M = 6.6 earthquake of 6 October 1987

The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

u

The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km³. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s².

Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO₃ and H₃BO₃ concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.

     

Optical variability of NGC 7469 in 1967–1987

Within the framework of a five-year campaign of coordinated multifrequency observations of the 3 Tauri star RU Lupi, we present results obtained in X-ray, UV, optical, and IR spectral regions. In five cases, simultaneous data from UV to IR were collected. Data analysis shows a large variability at different wavelengths both in the continuum and lines, stronger in the UV and weaker in the IR. Correlations among variations in the UV and optical continua have been found. Moreover flare-like events (FLEs), probably due to strong activity in the surface layers of the star and burst phenomena on large scale, were detected. No forbidden coronal lines were detected in UV and optical regions with IUE and ESO 1.4m CAT telescope, respectively. This means either the used instruments have not enough sensitivity to detect the predicted forbidden lines, or the low X-ray detected intensity — with ASTRON satellite (2–25 keV) — is due to the absorption of the X-rays in the circumstellar envelope. In this paper we will discuss these results within the framework of the current models.Based on observations with IUE satellite (VILSPA) and ESO telescopes.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain     

Astron observations of the Rapid Burster MXB 1730-335 and constraints on burster parameters from spectra of trailing bursts

We report on eight X-ray bursts detected by ASTRON from the Rapid Burster (RB) on 13 and 28 April and 16 August, 1983. Six of them (trailing bursts), with durations of 1.5–2 min, rise times of 5–10 s and intervals of 1–1.5 hours, exhibit spectral softening during the burst decay and may be related to the type I bursts. Two of the bursts (triangle bursts) observed on 28 April at interval of 28 min with much longer rise times (30–50 s) and longer durations (3 min), do not show distinct spectral softening. Persistent flux from RB on 16 August was estimated asF _p(2.0–2.4)×10^–9 erg cm^–2 s^–1. Spectral evolution of two trailing bursts was investigated by fitting their spectra in consecutive time intervals with the blackbody (BB), isothermal scattering photosphere (SP) and thermal bremsstrahlung (TB) models. Around the burst maxima the SP model fits the data best whereas in the burst tails the TB model is generally better. The BB model is worse than at least one of the two others. Interpretation of the burst spectra in terms of the BB radiation leads to improbably small neutron star mass and radius (M<0.86M ,R _NS<5 km) if the peak luminosity does not exceed the Eddington limit. Interpretation of the spectra around the burst maxima (3–15 s from the burst onset) in terms of an isothermal SP yields reasonable constraints onM,R _NS, and distanceD. For instance, for the hydrogen photosphere we obtainedM=(1.0–2.1)M R _NS=(7.1–16.4) km ifD=11 kpc. If one postulatesM=1.4M , thenD=(8.5–13) kpc for hydrogen photosphere; if, besides,D=11 kpc, thenR _NS=(8.1–13.3) km. It follows also from the SP-interpretation that the photosphere radius may increase up to 20–30 km in maxima of the trailing bursts when the luminosity becomes close to the Eddington luminosity.     

Diffuse cosmic gamma-ray background in the 28 ke V-4.1 MeV range from Kosmos 461 observations

Diffuse cosmic background and atmospheric gamma-radiation in the range 28 keV-4.1 MeV were studied with a scintillation spectrometer on board of the Kosmos 461 satellite. Separation of the cosmic and atmospheric components was made possible through a reliable determination of the geomagnetic dependences of albedo gamma-radiation: The spectrum of diffuse background in the energy range covered cannot be fitted with a common law. At energies below 400 keV the spectrum follows a power-law $$I = (5.6 \pm 0.5) \times 10^{ - 3} E^{ - (2.80 \pm 0.05)} cm^{ - 2} s^{ - 1} sr^{ - 1} MeV^{ - 1} .$$ Starting from 400 keV, this power-law breaks down; the spectrum revealing a clearly pronounced shoulder. Extrapolation of the power-law spectrum to higher energies shows that the gamma-ray component responsible for the change in the shape of the spectrum is quite strong, becoming predominant in the diffuse background in the range 1–100 MeV. The intensity of excess radiation is maximum in the region of 700–800 keV reaching ～1.8×10^?2 cm^?2s^?1sr^?1 MeV^?1. The shape of the high energy component spectrum of the diffuse background constructed using the data of Kosmos 461 and SAS-2 is in agreement with the hypotheses of the cosmological origin of the radiation.     

Cosmic neutrinos of ultra-high energies and detection possibility

The fluxes and spectra of galactic and extragalactic neutrinos at energy 10¹¹–10¹⁹ eV are calculated. In particular, the neutrino flux from the normal galaxies is calculated taking into account the spectral index distribution. The only assumption that seriously affects the calculated neutrino flux atE _v 10¹⁷ eV is the power-like generation spectrum of protons in the entire considered energy region.The normal galaxies with the accepted parameters generate the metagalactic equivalent electron component (electrons+their radiation) with energy density _e8.5×10^–7 eV cm^–3, while the density of the observed diffuse X-ray radiation alone is 100 times higher. This requires the existence of other neutrino sources and we found the minimized neutrino flux under two limitations: (1) the power-law generation spectrum of protons and (2) production of the observed energy density of the diffuse X-an -radiation. These requirements are met in the evolutionary model of origin of the metagalactic cosmic rays with modern energy density _M83.6×10^–7 eV cm^–3.The possibility of experiments with cosmic neutrinos of energyE _v 3×10¹⁷ eV is discussed. The upper bound on neutrino-nucleon cross-section <2.2×10^–29 cm² is obtained in evolutionary model from the observed zenith angular distribution of extensive air showers.In Appendix 2 the diffuse X-and -ray flux arising together with neutrino flux is calculated. It agrees with observed flux in the entire energy range from 1 keV up to 100 MeV.     

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Biostratigraphy of Jurassic-Cretaceous boundary sediments in the Eastern Crimea

The Dvuyakornaya Formation section in the eastern Crimea is described and subdivided into biostratigraphic units based on ammonites, foraminifers, and ostracodes. The lower part of the formation contains first discovered ammonites of the upper Kimmeridgian (Lingulaticears cf. procurvum (Ziegler), Pseudowaagenia gemmellariana Olóriz, Euvirgalithacoceras cf. tantalus (Herbich), Subplanites sp.) and Tithonian (?(Lingulaticeras efimovi (Rogov), Phylloceras consaguineum Gemmellaro, Oloriziceras cf. schneidi Tavera, and Paraulacosphinctes cf. transitorius (Oppel)). Based on the assemblage of characteristic ammonite species, the upper part of the formation is attributed to the Berriasian Jacobi Zone. Five biostratigraphic units (zones and beds with fauna) distinguished based on foraminifers are the Epistomina ventriosa-Melathrokerion eospirialis Beds and Anchispirocyclina lusitanica-Melathrokerion spirialis Zone in the upper Kimmeridgian-Tithonian, the Protopeneroplis ultragranulatus-Siphoninella antiqua, Frondicularia cuspidiata-Saracenaria inflanta zones, and Textularia crimica Beds in the Berriasian. The Cyrherelloidea tortuosa-Palaeocytheridea grossi Beds of the Upper Jurassic and Raymoorea peculiaris-Eucytherura ardescae-Protocythere revili Beds of the Berriasian are defined based on ostracodes. A new biostratigraphic scale is proposed for the upper Kimmeridgian-Berriasian of the eastern Crimea. The Dvyyakornaya Formation sediments are considered as deepwater facies accumulated on the continental slope.