台网遥测设备管理软件CALI编制与应用

本软件采用Ｆｏｘｐｒｏ２．５新一代数据库管理系统编写，主要用于遥测地震台网的设备管理及常规系统标定参数的计算，并已在１９９５年系统标定中得到了实践检验。     

振动采油工艺及增产效果分析

振动采油工艺是近两年研究开发的一种物理采油新工艺，尽管起步晚，增产机理还不清楚，但它的应用效果及推广前景引起了人们的关注和重视。本文就这一工艺研究开发进展情况作了概述，地增产效果进行了分析。     

数字滤波方法在月尺度数值预报中的应用：II.保留不同低频过程的效果比较

用数字滤波方法对观测资料序列进行处理，得到初始场用于Ｔ４２Ｌ９全球谱模式的月预报，以去除误差增长较快的高频扰动对低频过程的影响，并且利用多时刻的观测资料提取低频过程的信息。对冬季和夏季两个不同个例进行了实例，并比较了取不同长度的观测序列，截取不同周期的过程作为初值对预报效果的影响。结果说明，经过滤波后对低频分量和平均场的预报都有显著的改进。而且对于较长时效的预报，应保留更低频的过程（比如１０ｄ以上     

国外中期数值预报业务模式的性能及发展趋势

作者简单介绍了国内预报员较为熟悉的欧洲中期天气预报中心，美国国家气象中心和日本气象厅三个中期预报模式的性能及预报效果，包括近几年颇为流行的半拉格朗日时间积分方案，物理过程参数化方案的完善和改进，中期数值预报业务模式的发展趋势等。     

参考大气谱方法在国家气象中心谱模式上的应用

参考大气引入中期谱模式，能有效地减少截谱误差，提高预报精度。文章主要叙述了参考大气在国家气象中心业务预报谱模式上的进一步发展。计算结果表明，引入参考大气后，T63预报质量和降水的TS评分均有一定程度的提高。     

Predictability in limited area and global models

Summary Selected small domain LAM forecasts modulated by highly corrugated underlying topography, and driven by different state-of-science outer models suggest that uncertain outer model guidance for LAMs produces large, domain averaged sensitivity. A further literature survey indicates that many LAM forecasts are relatively insensitive to details of the local initial state, and that mesoscales show slight error growth, in contradiction to classical predictability theory. A series of global predictability experiments is presented in order to reconcile the contradiction. The experiments imply that, even in baroclinically unstable atmospheres, the most common sources of local error growth are associated with small uncertainties of the larger spatial scales rather than small uncertainties of the smaller spatial scales. Variable resolution, real-data experiments of barotropic versions of the global model display substantial mesoscale error growth, due principally to the effect of larger scales. The uncertainties possessing largest spatial scale appear as boundary uncertainties in LAMs, and explain the strong boundary sensitivity and weak local initial data sensitivity observed in many LAMs. We infer that accurate depiction of the largest spatial scales is a first order priority for accurate local prediction, and that for the advective portion of the dynamics, errors of the outer model that provides lateral boundary conditions may impose the largest current practical limitation for many LAM predictions.With 10 Figures     

Observation of gravity waves in a boreal forest

In this paper we report the results of the analysis of two 60-min wave events that occurred in a boreal aspen forest during the 1994 BOREAS (Boreal Ecosystems-Atmosphere Study) field experiment. High frequency wind and temperature data were provided by three 3-D sonic anemometer/thermometers and fourteen fine-wire thermocouples positioned within and above the forest. Wave phase speeds, estimated from information revealed by spectral analysis and linear plane wave equations, are 2.2 and 1.3 m s^-1 for the two events. The wavelengths are 130 m and 65 m respectively and are much larger than the vertical wave displacements. There is strong evidence from the present analysis and from the literature supporting our postulate that these waves are generated by shear instability. We propose that wind shear near the top of the stand is often large enough to reduce the gradient Richardson number below the critical value of 0.25 and thus is able to trigger the instability. When external conditions are favorable, the instability will grow into waves.     

外资：发展中国家城市化的新动力：珠江三角洲个案研究

城市化的研究历来都偏重于内力的营造，例如区域经济的不同发展步伐，乡村－市的人口流动，政府的地区性经济政策以及新城市的建设等。在资本、人力、技术和市场走向“全球化”的情况下，新的国际分工自１９８０年以来已成为一些发展中国家和地区的人口及经济活动急剧增长与集中的主要动力。本文对这一类型城市化的特点和空间形态作出了概括性的描述。     

长江和珠江三角洲经济发展的异同性

本文分析、比较长江三角洲和珠江三角洲两个地区经济发展定位、工业结构和区域协调的性质与机制等问题，并相应地提出一些对策建议。