灰色稳健总体最小二乘估计及高铁路基变形预测

最小二乘估计和部分变量误差模型的总体最小二乘估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在灰色白化微分方程的观测值和系数矩阵中,本文提出基于IGGⅢ抗差方案的部分变量总体最小二乘稳健估计。结合仿真数据和高铁路基观测数据,系统地比较稳健最小二乘、部分变量总体最小二乘、本文算法参数估计结果和算法稳定性。结果表明,本文算法预测精度高,可以应用到高铁路基沉降预测中。     

PS Vir:a short-period solar-like contact binary

We present multi-color photometric observations and a one-dimensional spectrum, acquired from March 2016 to May 2017, for the short-period eclipsing binary PS Vir, by using the 2.16-m,85-cm and 60-cm telescopes at Xinglong station, which is administered by National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The spectral type was determined as G2V from the onedimensional spectrum. The photometric solution was reduced from BV Rc light curves. The results imply that PS Vir is a W-subtype contact binary with a mass ratio of q = 0.305(±0.008) and a fill-out factor of f = 14.4(±1.8)%. The orbital period may be undergoing a cyclic oscillation with an amplitude of A = 0.0027(±0.0001) d and a modulated period of 11.7(±0.2) yr, which may result from the light-time effect due to a third body. The lower limit on mass for the assumed component is 0.12 M⊙.Moreover, the more massive component of PS Vir may be a bit more evolved star as determined from the mass-luminosity diagram.     

Binary Star Fractions from the LAMOST DR4

Stellar systems composed of single, double, triple or higher-order systems are rightfully regarded as the fundamental building blocks of the Milky Way. Binary stars play an important role in formation and evolution of the Galaxy. Through comparing the radial velocity variations from multiepoch observations, we analyze the binary fraction of dwarf stars observed with LAMOST. Effects of different model assumptions, such as orbital period distributions on the estimate of binary fractions,are investigated. The results based on log-normal distribution of orbital periods reproduce the previous complete analyses better than the power-law distribution. We find that the binary fraction increases with Teff and decreases with [Fe/H]. We first investigate the relation between α-elements and binary fraction in such a large sample as provided by LAMOST. The old stars with high [α/Fe] dominate with a higher binary fraction than young stars with low [α/Fe]. At the same mass, earlier forming stars possess a higher binary fraction than newly forming ones, which may be related with evolution of the Galaxy.     

Optimization Transmission Theory and Technical Pathways that Describe Multiscale Urban Agglomeration Spaces

Urban agglomerations are spatial entities that promote the development of ‘new urbanization' processes within China. In this context, the concept of ‘multiscale urban agglomeration spaces' encompasses three linked levels: macroscale urban agglomerations, mesoscale cities, and microscale urban centers. Applying a series of multidisciplinary integrated research methods drawn from geography, urban planning, and architecture, this paper reveals two intensive utilization laws that can be generalized to apply to multiscale urban agglomeration spaces, top-to-bottom ‘positive transmission' linkage and inside-to-outside ‘negative transmission' movement. This paper also proposes optimization transmission theory and policy decision technical pathways that can be applied to these three urban agglomeration spatial scales. Specific technical pathways of transmission include intensive expansion and simulated decision-making in macroscale urban agglomerations, ecology, production, and living space intensive layout and dynamic decision-making in mesoscale cities, and four cores(i.e., ‘single, ring, axis, and pole core') progressive linkage and intensive optimization decision-making in microscale urban centers. The theory and technical pathways proposed in this paper solve the technical problem of optimization and provide intensive methods that can be applied not only at the individual level but also at multiple scales in urban agglomeration spaces. This study also advances a series of comprehensive technical solutions that can be applied to both compact and smart growth cities as well as to urban agglomerations. Solid theoretical support is provided for the optimization of Chinese land development, urbanization, agricultural development, and ecological security.     

Spatial distribution of snow depth based on geographically weighted regression kriging in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow depth is a general input variable in many models of agriculture,hydrology,climate and ecology.This study makes use of observational data of snow depth and explanatory variables to compare the accuracy and effect of geographically weighted regression kriging(GWRK)and regression kriging(RK)in a spatial interpolation of regional snow depth.The auxiliary variables are analyzed using correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factor(VIF).Three variables,Height,topographic ruggedness index(TRI),and land surface temperature(LST),are used as explanatory variables to establish a regression model for snow depth.The estimated spatial distribution of snow depth in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains in China with a spatial resolution of 1 km is obtained.The results indicate that 1)the result of GWRK's accuracy is slightly higher than that of RK(R~2=0.55 vs.R~2=0.50,RMSE(root mean square error)=0.102 m vs.RMSE=0.077 m);2)for the subareas,GWRK and RK exhibit similar estimation results of snow depth.Areas in the Bayanbulak Basin with a snow depth greater than 0.15m are mainly distributed in an elevation range of 2632.00–3269.00 m and the snow in this area comprises 45.00–46.00% of the total amount of snow in this basin.However,the GWRK resulted in more detailed information on snow depth distribution than the RK.The final conclusion is that GWRK is better suited for estimating regional snow depth distribution.     

Nonlinear analytic solution for perturbed relative motion using differential equinoctial elements

This paper develops a nonlinear analytic solution for satellite relative motion in J₂-perturbed elliptic orbits by using the geometric method that can avoid directly solving the complex differential equations. The differential equinoctial elements (DEEs) are used to remove any singularities for zero-eccentricity or zero-inclination orbits. Based on the relationship between the relative states and the DEEs, state transition tensors (STTs) for transforming the osculating DEEs and propagating the mean DEEs have been derived. The formulation of these STTs has been split into a set of vector and matrix operations, which avoids directly expanding the complex second-order terms, and thus, the obtained STTs could be easy-to-understand and easy-to-code. Numerical results show that the proposed nonlinear solution is valid for zero-eccentricity and zero-inclination reference orbit and is more accurate than the previous linear or nonlinear methods for the long-term prediction of satellite relative motion.     

北斗在南/北极地区的基本定位性能评估

基于BDS、GPS系统的星座结构,对当前的BDS二代导航系统（BD2）、全部建成后的BDS系统在极地科考站（黄河站、昆仑站、中山站、长城站）和北极圈的可见卫星数、DOP值、定位精度等进行评估,并将建成后的BDS、GPS及其组合系统在南/北极的基本定位性能进行对比分析。仿真结果表明,当前的BD2只实现了极地的部分覆盖,对极地提供导航定位的能力有限,大范围内的定位精度大于30.0 m; BDS在极地的定位精度将与GPS相当,可见卫星数可达13颗左右,PDOP值优于1.6,定位精度优于8.0 m;GPS/BDS组合后在极地的PDOP值优于1.4,定位精度优于6.0 m。
     

基于GNSS的LEO卫星TRAIM可用性算法及分析

详细研究了基于GNSS的LEO卫星接收机授时自主完好性（TRAIM）故障检测数学模型以及可用性算法。以GPS和BDS组合为例,分别对500 km、650 km、800 km和1 400 km等几种典型轨道高度的卫星,开展基于GNSS的LEO卫星TRAIM可用性仿真分析。结果表明,在告警阈值100 ns时,基于GPS+BDS组合系统的TRAIM检测可用概率达到99.1%以上,基本满足LEO卫星TRIAM检测可用性需求。     

Avalanche activity and characteristics of its triggering factors in the western Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow avalanche is a serious threat to the safety of roads in alpine mountains. In the western Tianshan Mountains, large scale avalanches occur every year and affect road safety. There is an urgent need to identify the characteristics of triggering factors for avalanche activity in this region to improve road safety and the management of natural hazards. Based on the observation of avalanche activity along the national road G218 in the western Tianshan Mountains, avalanche event data in combination with meteorological, snowpack and earthquake data were collected and analyzed. The snow climate of the mountain range was examined using a recently developed snow climate classification scheme, and triggering conditions of snow avalanche in different snow climate regions were compared. The results show that snowfall is the most common triggering factor for a natural avalanche and there is high probability of avalanche release with snowfall exceeding 20.4 mm during a snowfall period. Consecutive rise in temperature within three days and daily mean temperature reaching 0.5°C in the following day imply a high probability of temperaturerise-triggered avalanche release. Earthquakes have a significant impact on the formation of large size avalanches in the area. For the period 2011-2017, five cases were identified as a consequence of earthquake with magnitudes of 3.3≤M_L≤5.1 and source-to-site distances of 19~139 km. The Tianshan Mountains are characterized by a continental snow climate with lower snow density, lower snow shear strength and high proportion depth hoar, which explains that both the snowfall and temperature for triggering avalanche release in the continental snow climate of the Tianshan Mountains are lower than that in maritime snow climate and transitional snow climate regions. The findings help forecast avalanche release for mitigating avalanche disaster and assessing the risk of avalanche disaster.     

相变存储材料Ge1Sb2Te4和Ge2Sb2Te5薄膜的结构和电学特性研究

采用射频磁控溅射方法制备了两种用于相变存储器的Ge₁Sb₂Te₄和Ge₂Sb₂Te₅相变薄膜材料,对其结构、电学输运性质和恒温下电阻随时间的变化关系进行了比较和分析.X射线衍射(XRD)和原子力显微镜(AFM)的结果表明:随着退火温度的升高,Ge₁Sb₂Te₄薄膜逐步晶化,由非晶态转变为多晶态,表面出现均匀的、