长江三角洲夏季持续性高温预报方法的研究

采用1999～2008年逐日最高气温观测资料和NCEP逐日再分析资料,统计分析了长江三角洲地区近10a夏季温度的低频周期,揭示了对该地区夏季温度变化产生影响的区域和特征。研究表明,该地区夏季温度的低频周期为10-30d。通过相关分析在42．50～47．5°N、82．5°～90°E,42．5°～47．5°N、80°～90...     

共和盆地壳内部分熔融层存在的地球物理证据与干热岩资源区域性热源分析

新生代以来,共和盆地及其周缘造山带无火山、岩浆活动,印支期隐伏花岗岩体岩浆余热与放射性元素衰变生热等难以构成共和盆地干热岩资源的主要热源,而共和盆地又为一高温地热异常盆地.目前已基本探明了共和县恰卜恰与贵德县热水泉干热岩体2处,圈定出干热岩勘查目标靶区16处.区域重力和区域航磁调查、区域天然地震成像、盆地尺度天然地震背...     

中强震前后泉水中砷含量变化特征及其在地震预报中应用的可行性研究

作者在滇西红河断裂带北段布设了5个泉点,开展了砷含量变化的观测研究。通过近三年的观测,发现泉水中砷含量的变化能较好地反映该地区的中强地震活动,地震前泉水中砷含量明显增高。以澜沧7.6级地震为例,讨论了地震前后地下水中砷含量的异常特征及异常机理,并对其在地震预报中应用的可行性进行了论证。     

北部湾6.1,6.2级地震序列的环境应力场

应用Ｐ波初动半周期直接测定环境剪应力值的方法,测定了北部湾６．１,６．２级地震前后中小地震的环境剪应力值τ０,由此分析了北部湾地震过程的环境应力场特征。结果表明,北部湾６．１级地震后平均剪应力值较高,达１８ＭＰａ左右;６．２级地震及两次５级余震后剪应力值下降很快,降至目前的６ＭＰａ左右。在此基础上对北部湾地震活动趋势作了初步分析。     

全球过去千年典型暖期温度空间格局重建

利用过去两千年全球变化研究网络(PAGES 2k network)最新公布的501条代用记录, 重建了全球过去千年全年平均温度空间格局的演化特征, 对比分析了中世纪暖期及其最暖100年与20世纪现代暖期、中世纪暖期和小冰期最暖30年与20世纪最近30年的年平均温度空间模态异同。结果显示, 在世纪尺度上, 现代暖期与历史上中世纪暖期的温度异常空间格局大致相同, 变化幅度也在大部分区域相当, 但从年代际尺度上, 最近30年的升温比过去千年中世纪暖期和小冰期两个典型时期都明显。值得一提的是北大西洋中高纬度海温变化与上述特征并不相同, 在年代际和世纪尺度上小冰期和中世纪暖期海温均高于20世纪。可能原因是大西洋经圈翻转环流在中世纪暖期、 小冰期和20世纪现代暖期等3个特征时段对太阳辐射、火山活动和温室气体等外强迫的响应不同。     

用频谱仪检修CINRAD/CC雷达接收系统故障

针对云南省普洱雷达站新一代天气雷达接收系统出现的一次特殊故障,通过对主要性能指标进行标定和分析,判断雷达接收系统出现故障,并根据接收系统的工作原理和信号流程,运用频谱分析仪对接收系统的各信号频谱进行测试分析,完成故障定位和排除。此次故障排除过程充分体现了频谱分析仪在接收系统故障处理中的重要性。     

中国西北地区1993年5月5日黑风暴的机理探讨

该文用天气学、诊断分析方法对1993年5月5日我国西部地区黑风暴天气过程的发生发展及形成机理进行研究。结果表明，这次黑风暴是由强寒潮爆发，在特定季节（春季）和裸露、疏松的下垫面（沙漠、戈壁）条件下形成的中尺度现象。在对流层中低层垂直方向上存在很强的风切变，利于湍流发展；非地转强迫作用对次级环流贡献大于地转强迫作用；黑风暴前后显著的辐射加热不均匀分布所形成的热力正反馈作用，造成近地层局地锋生，并使热力正环流大大加强。     

Gas generation and expulsion characteristics of Middle–Upper Triassic source rocks,eastern Kuqa Depression,Tarim Basin,China: implications for shale gas resource potential

Frontier exploration in the Kuqa Depression, western China, has identified the continuous tight-sand gas accumulation in the Lower Cretaceous and Lower Jurassic as a major unconventional gas pool. However, assessment of the shale gas resource in the Kuqa Depression is new. The shale succession in the Middle–Upper Triassic comprises the Taliqike Formation (T₃t), the Huangshanjie Formation (T₃h) and the middle–upper Karamay Formation (T_2–3k), with an average accumulated thickness of 260 m. The high-quality shale is dominated by type III kerogen with high maturity and an average original total organic carbon (TOC) of about 2.68 wt%. An improved hydrocarbon generation and expulsion model was applied to this self-contained source–reservoir system to reveal the gas generation and expulsion (intensity, efficiency and volume) characteristics of Middle–Upper Triassic source rocks. The maximum volume of shale gas in the source rocks was obtained by determining the difference between generation and expulsion volumes. The results indicate that source rocks reached the hydrocarbon expulsion threshold of 1.1% VR and the hydrocarbon generation and expulsion reached their peak at 1.0% VR and 1.28% VR, with the maximum rate of 56 mg HC/0.1% TOC and 62.8 mg HC/0.1% TOC, respectively. The volumes of gas generation and expulsion from Middle–Upper Triassic source rocks were 12.02 × 10¹² m³ and 5.98 × 10¹² m³, respectively, with the residual volume of 6.04 × 10¹² m³, giving an average gas expulsion efficiency of 44.38% and retention efficiency of 55.62%. Based on the gas generation and expulsion characteristics, the predicted shale gas potential volume is 6.04 × 10¹² m³, indicating a significant shale gas resource in the Middle–Upper Triassic in the eastern Kuqa Depression.     

Numerical analysis of the effect of natural microcracks on the supercritical CO2 fracturing crack network of shale rock based on bonded particle models

The problem of predicting the geometric structure of induced fractures is highly complex and significant in the fracturing stimulation of rock reservoirs. In the traditional continuous fracturing models, the mechanical properties of reservoir rock are input as macroscopic quantities. These models neglect the microcracks and discontinuous characteristics of rock, which are important factors influencing the geometric structure of the induced fractures. In this paper, we simulate supercritical CO₂ fracturing based on the bonded particle model to investigate the effect of original natural microcracks on the induced‐fracture network distribution. The microcracks are simulated explicitly as broken bonds that form and coalesce into macroscopic fractures in the supercritical CO₂ fracturing process. A calculation method for the distribution uniformity index (DUI) is proposed. The influence of the total number and DUI of initial microcracks on the mechanical properties of the rock sample is studied. The DUI of the induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing and hydraulic fracturing for different DUIs of initial microcracks are compared, holding other conditions constant. The sensitivity of the DUI of the induced fractures to that of initial natural microcracks under different horizontal stress ratios is also probed. The numerical results indicate that the distribution of induced fractures of supercritical CO₂ fracturing is more uniform than that of common hydraulic fracturing when the horizontal stress ratio is small.     

Acoustic monitoring using bamboo set net in the Southern Sea of Korea

High-temporal resolution profiles of acoustic backscatter were collected from a traditional bamboo set net along the coast of the Southern Sea, Korea, using sideward-looking multi-beam imaging sonar. These data were used to examine the impact of variations in tidal cycles and current speeds on the bamboo set net. The relatively high influx of fish during the nighttime compared to the low influx and high outflux of fish during the daytime suggests visual avoidance of the net by the fish during the daytime. The observed diel variation in the captured fish flux was significantly correlated with the current speed (day: r = 0.35, p = 0.002, night: r = 0.60, p < 0.001). The ratio of influx and outflux of fish, and current speed were correlated in a linear relationship (day: r = 0.45, p < 0.001; night: r = 0.56, p < 0.001). The fish activity of those inhabiting the bamboo set nets appears to be greatly influenced by day-night differences and current speed. The present study enhances understanding of fish behavior via utilization of a bamboo set net in the coastal zone.