1960-2015年青海三江源地区降水时空特征

青海三江源地区是中国生态系统最为敏感和脆弱的地区,其降水特别是生长季降水的波动,是影响本区及江河中下游水资源安全、生态系统可持续发展的关键因素。综合线性趋势、Mann-Kendall检验、BG分割算法、R/S、EEMD等多方法细致辨识了1960-2015年研究区降水量序列的时空特征。结果显示：① 三江源降水量总体呈现弱增趋势,21世纪以来降水量显著增加,各子源区气候倾向率不尽相同;② 年、季降水量自东南向西北递减,澜沧江源区夏季降水和黄河源区秋季降水呈弱减趋势,雨量弱减区在空间上呈斑块状分布;③ 年、季降水量年代际变化和增湿率的空间差异较明显,春夏季降水气候倾向率与经纬度、海拔的复相关性显著高于冬季;④ 20世纪90年代中后期,各子源区降水总体显现增强信号,并于2002年前后发生突变;⑤ 年际和低值年代际显著周期是造成降水量变动的主要因素;⑥ 除澜沧江源区夏季降水趋于减少外,其他年、季降水量变化呈现增幅不一的转湿趋势;⑦ 横向比较各子源区可见,长江源区降水变化更能表征高原气候变化。研究结果显示,研究区降水时空序列变化具有明显的区域和季节差异性特征,与以往类似研究存在些许差异,可见为有效提高气候序列演变过程及突变诊断的准确性,仍需进一步融合多方法实施集成分析。     

The simulation of LUCC based on Logistic-CA-Markov model in Qilian Mountain area,China

The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km~2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km~2 from 2000 to 2014.(2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution(weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method.(3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years(2015–2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

Sequence architecture and depositional evolution of the Ordovician carbonate platform margins in the Tarim Basin and its response to tectonism and sea‐level change

The sequence architecture and depositional evolution of the Ordovician carbonate platform margins in the Tarim Basin, China, were formed in response to the interplay of tectonism and sea‐level change, their history being documented by the integrated analysis of many seismic lines, drilling and outcrop data. The Ordovician carbonate system in the basin is divided into four composite sequences defined by major unconformities. Each sequence consists of a regional depositional cycle from transgression with an onlapping transgressive systems tract (TST) to regression with a prograding highstand systems tract (HST), and can be further subdivided into 10 third‐order sequences based on subordinate discontinuous boundaries at the carbonate platform marginal zones. Constrained by the marginal slope of the early‐rifted Manjiaer aulacogen, the carbonate platform margins of the Lower and Middle Ordovician that prograded eastward in an arcuate belt extending generally north‐south across the northern part of the basin. The development of the Tazhong uplift due to compression resulted in an extensive paleokarst hiatus between the Middle and the Upper Ordovician in the south‐central basin, and subsequently constrained the formation of a peninsula‐shaped carbonate platform whose margins were controlled by marginal thrust‐fault belts of the paleo‐uplift during the Late Ordovician. In the northern basin, the Late Ordovician carbonate platform margin developed around the marginal slope of the Tabei paleouplift. The transgressive–regressive cycles of the carbonate system are comparable and seem to have occurred simultaneously across the entire basin, suggesting that the cyclic sequence architecture was fundamentally controlled by eustatic fluctuations. Stacking patterns of the composite sequences varied due to the interplay between the accommodation produced by tectonism and sea‐level change, and the carbonate production rate. The reef–shoal facies complexes that developed along the platform margins, with paleokarst development at unconformities, constitute the major reservoir of large petroleum reserves in the basin.     

城市道路网络特征对交通事故作用机理的研究进展

机动交通快速发展背景下城市道路交通安全问题日益严峻,道路网络作为影响区域交通流与居民交通出行行为的关键因素,对区域交通事故的数量、类型和空间分布具有重要影响。论文从道路布局形式与几何拓扑特征2个方面归纳总结城市道路网络特征对交通事故的作用机理,并通过梳理道路网络与交通出行行为的关系分析其对交通事故的潜在影响。研究指出,格网型、平行曲线型、回路尽端型等道路网络布局形式以及中心性、连通性等道路网络拓扑指标,对交通事故的类型、频率和严重程度的影响存在差异性和空间尺度效应;合理的交叉口密度、路网密度、街区密度等道路网络几何特征对于提升交通安全水平具有重要作用。未来研究需要进一步运用复杂网络理论刻画道路网络的结构、功能等特征,在控制居住自选择效应的基础上,从交通出行行为视角深入分析复杂道路网络对交通事故的作用机制与非线性影响,同时考虑道路网络特征与建成环境的潜在交互作用。     

泰山旅游环境承载力及其时空分异特征与利用强度研究

旅游环境承载力作为一种稀缺性非实物资源具有空间分异和时间变化规律;文章采取静态的模型研究方法,对泰山主景区的旅游环境承载力作出了系统测算,揭示了其时空分异规律,剖析了旅游环境承载力资源的利用强度,提出了旅游调控策略。     

铜陵天马山硫金矿床矽卡岩矿物学特征及矿石硫同位素地球化学研究

天马山硫金矿是铜陵矿集区典型的层控热液叠加改造型矿床,层状矿体中发育大量的矽卡岩矿物。为查明该矿床中矽卡岩矿物的类型及形成环境,探讨矽卡岩与硫、金成矿之间的关系,对主要的矽卡岩矿物开展了矿物学及矿物化学研究,并对矿石进行了硫同位素地球化学研究。研究表明:矿区内的矽卡岩矿物以石榴子石和辉石为主,其中石榴子石以钙铁榴石为主,属于钙铁榴石-钙铝榴石固熔体系列(Gro0~18.73And80.54~99.00Spe+Pyr+Alm0.54~1.47);辉石以透辉石为主,其次为钙铁辉石,属于透辉石-钙铁辉石系列(Di62.35~97.65Hd1.89~36.27Jo0.31~1.55)。天马山硫金矿的矿物组合(钙铁辉石+透辉石)属于氧化型矽卡岩,表明矽卡岩形成于相对高温和高氧逸度的条件。石榴子石和辉石端元组分特征及辉石Mn/Fe值(0.02~0.07)具有典型的矽卡岩型铜、金矿床特征。矿石硫同位素具有岩浆源的特征,与区内燕山期岩浆-成矿作用形成的矿石一致,而明显区别于喷流-沉积作用形成的矿石,显示成矿作用与燕山期岩浆活动具有密切的成因联系。燕山期中酸性岩浆交代碳酸盐岩围岩形成大量矽卡岩,矽卡岩矿物的形成增加了岩石的孔隙度和渗透率,为晚期硫、金矿床的形成提供了有利条件。     

西藏朋曲流域不同地貌部位流动沙丘粒度特征

沙丘粒度特征不仅能反映沙丘沙物质的来源与动力,也可以体现地形对风沙流运移的改变。对西藏朋曲流域不同地貌部位流动沙丘表层沉积物的粒度特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）朋曲流域流动沙丘表层沉积物粒度组分以中沙（46.51%）和细沙（40.52%）为主,粗沙（5.87%）与极细沙（5.87%）次之,黏土（0.37%）与粉沙（0.85%）含量最低。流动沙丘表层沉积物平均粒径1.41—2.32 Φ,分选系数0.45—0.79 Φ,偏度0.01—0.24,峰度0.98—1.80。（2）从河漫滩到河流阶地到山坡,流动沙丘粒度逐渐变小,频率分布曲线逐渐变高变窄,粒径越来越集中,沿主导风向自西南向东北概率累积曲线斜率逐渐增大,分选性逐渐变好。（3）河漫滩至河流高级阶地流动沙丘表层沉积物随海拔升高粒径变小,坡麓至坡顶随海拔升高粒径变大,分选却变好,表明山坡上沙丘与阶地上沙丘的沙物质来自于不同河段的河床或河漫滩。     

南极数值天气预报应用与研究进展

多个业务化的全球预报模式和有限区域预报模式应用于南极地区,已经成为南极天气预报和南极气候诊断研究的主要工具.现今南极地区的数值天气预报模式在模拟南极大气环流和天气系统方面性能不够理想,原因是多方面的:南极天气气候的特殊性(包括边界层的参数化、中尺度气旋等)、模式对南极复杂地形的描述不够充分、由于缺乏观测资料而使得模式的...