APPLICATION OF ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS TO ASSESSING THE ECOLOGICAL VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS IN THE JIANGHAN PLAIN

Wetlands in the Jianghan Plain are important components of wetland types in lake area in the middle and lower reaches the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and they fulfill many uses and functions related to hydrology,waste assimilation, ecosystem productivity and biodiversity. Owing to natural factors and human activities, especially excessive reclamation from lakes, the shrinking process of the lakes has been accelerated. Wetland ecosystem has shown the characteristics of vulnerability. According to the analysis of wetland ecological function in the Jianghan Plain, this paper presented an index system related to productivity, stability and environmental capacity. By using the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process, we computed the values of the relative weights of the indexes, and evaluated the vulnerability level of the wetland ecosystem by the method of multi-indexes. The case study showed that the fragile extent of wetland ecosystem in the Jianghan Plain is 5.6. This means that the wetland ecosystem in the Jiang-han Plain is laid to the state of middle vulnerability. Therefore, the wetland conservation and eco-rehabilitation in the JiangJaan Plain should be paid attention to.     

STUDY ON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF SHIPPING CENTERS AND TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS IN THE YELLOW SEA RIM IN THE YELLOW SEA RIM

It is very important to establish cooperative mechanism to guarantee all members to develop their e-conomies in the Yellow Sea Rim. In this paper, the development strategies ofshipplng centers and transportation networkare discussed based on economic giobalization tendency. The results argue that a united transportation network should bebuilt in order to promote the economic competition of Northeast Asia in the world. As a key component of the economiccooperation, a hierarchical shipping centers network should be established with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Pusan, Koho,and Tokyo as cores. The authorities of China, Japan, R. O. Korea and D. P. B. Korea should make more efforts tobuild a set of cooperation institutions based on raising the transportation efficiency.     

SPECULATION ON DEVELOPING TOUR RESOURCES OF THE TOURNAMENT ATHLETICS IN HARBIN CITY

The exploitation and utilization of the tour resources of tournament athletics, including skiling, boat sail-ing, archery, ice engraving, snow engraving, has become a new trend of the development of Chinese tourism. Due tothe unique cold climate and superior geographic location, Harbin is a promising city for developing tour resources of tourna-ment athletics. Based on the analysis of the superiority and peculiarity of Harbin, the speculation on development of tour resources of tournament athletics in Harbin is proposed as follows : 1 ) Harbin should develop its special tour resources of tournament athletics associated with needs of market; 2) Harbin should take the advantages of rich resources and devel-op ice and snow entertainment in winter and travel for sight-seeing and spending summer;, 3) the adjustment of the layoutof ice and snow resources should be based on the idea of taking Harbin as the center and all-side opening at the largescale in the way of radiation; 4) tourism should be developed by the combined efforts of various departments to make feasi-ble plan, and the organizers should pay much attention to ensuring the safetv of tourists.     

CARBON DYNAMICS OF WETLAND IN THE SANJIANG PLAIN

1INTRODUCTIONWetlandsplayanimportant roleintheprocessofcar-bonstorage.Thetotalcarbonstoredindifferentkindsofwetlandsisabout15%-35%ofthetotalcarboninthegloballandsoils(POSTetal.,1982;GORHAM,1991).Inaddition,wetlandsaresignificantnaturalsources fortheatmospheric CH4 (MOORE,1994).It isestimatedthatabout110×1012gCH4 originates fromanaerobicdecompositioninthenaturalwetlands,CH4 emission fromthenaturalwetlandsis15%-30%oftheglobalCH4 emission andtheCH4 emission from thepeat land at hi…     

基于蚁群算法的城市可持续发展综合评价

在可持续发展体系分类的基础上，应用蚁群算法对可持续发展各分类指数公式和综合指数公式进行优化，建立可持续发展评价模型。将该模型应用于乌鲁木齐市可持续发展水平评价，评价结果与现状分析一敛。结果表明该模型简单适用、有良好的通用性。     

Optical monitoring of the quasar 4C 38.41

The results of a photometric monitoring of the quasar 4C 38.41, performed at the optical R and B bands in 2002 February–March, are presented. With a 60/90 cm Schmidt telescope at the Xinglong station of the National Astronomical Observatories of China, we observed the source exhibiting amplitude variations of up to 0.78 mag in both bands during the whole campaign. Intraday and even intranight variations are detected as well. A typical variability time-scale of about 36 d is derived from our 2-month observations at the optical bands, which is identical to that found at a radio wavelength of 92 cm, suggesting a common origin for the variations in 4C 38.41 from optical to radio bands.     

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

A multi‐level parallelized substructuring‐frontal solution for coupled thermo/hydro/mechanical problems in unsaturated soil

This paper proposes a multi‐level parallelized substructuring–frontal combined algorithm for the analysis of the problem of thermo/hydraulic/mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soil. Temperature, displacement, pore water pressure and pore air pressure are treated as the primary variables in a non‐linear analysis. Details are given firstly of the substructuring–frontal combined approach. The incorporation of the algorithm in a multi‐level parallel strategy is then discussed. The parallel processing can thus be carried out at different substructural levels. The method thus developed impacts, in a positive way, on both computer storage requirement and execution time. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.