基于随机森林模型的东北地区收缩城市分布格局及影响因素研究

基于2005-2009年、2010-2014年、2015-2019年和2005-2019年人口变化数据,判定东北地区收缩城市,分析其空间分布格局,并对比运用多元线性回归方法和随机森林回归方法探索东北地区收缩城市形成的影响因素及其影响作用.结果 表明:①空间上,东北地区的收缩城市主要分布在以长白山、三江平原、小兴安岭和大...     

利用航磁重复线测量内符合精度消除航磁梯度测量中的转向差

为消除吊舱式航磁梯度测量中梯度仪转向差的影响,评价航磁梯度系统的测量精度,笔者尝试了计算重复线内符合精度的方法.通过推导,给出了重复线内符合精度新的计算公式,该公式和地面重力、磁法测量中重复观测、仪器多台一致性总精度计算及航空重力、磁法测量中利用测线与切割线交叉点计算总精度的公式具有形式上的统一.利用改进的水平调整方法显著的消除了航磁梯度测量中的转向差,并客观评价了梯度系统的测量精度.     

Turbulence fields in the lee of two‐dimensional transverse dunes simulated in a wind tunnel

The turbulence field of airflow in the lee of a dune has significant impacts on dune dynamics and related processes. We used particle image velocimetry in a wind tunnel simulation to obtain detailed velocity measurements in the lee of two‐dimensional transverse dune models, then used the results to analyse their turbulence fields. The dune models used in this study had a single lee angle of 30°, and a total of six stoss angles: 3°, 5°, 10°, 15°, 20° and 25°. We used vorticity, turbulence intensity, Reynolds stress and turbulent kinetic energy to characterize the turbulence fields. These parameters were functions of stoss angle, wind velocity, distance from the dune crest and height above the ground surface. The stoss angles could generally be divided into two groups based on the profiles of mean velocity, turbulence and Reynolds stress. Stoss angles of 3° and 5° usually had similar profiles, and angles of 15°, 20° and 25° formed a second group with similar profiles. The profiles for the stoss angle of 10° were usually transitional and were intermediate between the two groups. Vorticity, Reynolds stress and turbulent kinetic energy increased monotonically with increasing free‐stream wind velocity, but their variations with respect to the stoss angle were complex. The stoss angles of 15° and 20° had the maximum values of these three parameters, thus these angles may have special significance in dune development given the characteristics of the mean velocity fields and turbulence fields they produce within the lee airflow. It is the streamwise velocity component and its turbulence that determine the surface shear stress. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.     

Coupling of a simultaneous heat and water model with a distributed hydrological model and evaluation of the combined model in a cold region watershed

Snow and frozen soil prevail in cold regions worldwide, and the integration of these processes is crucial in hydrological models. In this study, a combined model was developed by fully coupling a simultaneous heat and water model with a geomorphologically based distributed hydrological model. The combined model simulates vertical and lateral water transfer as well as vertical heat fluxes and is capable of representing the effects of frozen soil and snowmelt on hydrological processes in cold regions. This model was evaluated by using in situ observations in the Binggou watershed, an experimental watershed for cold region hydrology of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research Project. Results showed that the model was able to predict soil freezing and thawing, unfrozen soil water content, and snow depth reasonably well. The simulated hydrograph was in good agreement with the in situ observation. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of daily discharge was 0.744 for the entire simulation period, 0.472 from April to June, and 0.711 from June to November. This model can improve our understanding of hydrological processes in cold regions and assess the impacts of global warming on hydrological cycles and water resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Physico-chemical characteristics and environmental significance of snow deposition on Haxilegen glacier No.51 in Tian Shan, China

Snow chemistry on the glaciers of alpine regions is a good indicator of atmospheric environmental change.We examine snow chemistry in three snowpits at different altitudes on the Haxilegen Glacier No.51,in the Kuitun River source,Tian Shan,China,during July-September 2004 to 2007.We use correlation analysis,factor analysis and sea-salt tracing methods to examine the characteristics and sources of major ions and mineral dust particles in the snow.Results show that mineral dust particles and major ions in the snow pits vary seasonally.During the Asian dust period in springtime,the concentration of mineral dust particles and major ions deposited in snow is high,while the concentration is relatively low during the non-dust period of summer and autumn.This may be caused by dust storm activity in central Asia.The order of major ionic concentrations in the snow packs was determined to be Ca2+ > SO42-> NH4+ > NO3-> Cl-> Na+ > Mg2+ > K+.Ca2+ was the dominant cation;SO42- was the dominant anion.We find,with the exception of NO3-,that the variabilities of ionic concentrations are highly correlated.Results show that the glacier region was significantly affected by dust activity and anthropogenic source.The major ions,especially Na+,originate from dust sources of central Asia and from the Ocean,transported by the westerly winds.     

渤海湾北岸Bg10孔磁性地层研究及其构造意义

对渤海湾北岸孔深600m的Bg10孔进行了详细的沉积学和古地磁研究,划分了39个沉积单元;基于516个样品(60个交变样品,456个热退样品)分离出的特征剩磁,建立了钻孔的磁性地层,并与标准极性年表相对比,确定正极性N1、N2、N3、N4、N5、N6和N7分别对应C1n、C1r.1n、C2n、C2r.1n、C2An.1n、C2An.2n和C2An.3n,R1、R2、R3、R4、R5和R6分别对应C1r.1r、C1r.2r+C1r.3r、C2r.1r、C2r.2r、C2An.1r和C2An.2r。钻孔B/M界限埋深162.3m,M/G界限埋深为475.8m,钻孔底部位于C2An.3n内,其年龄应小于3.596Ma。Bg10孔包括3个沉积阶段:Ⅰ阶段为3.3~3.6Ma,沉积速率略大于130m/Ma,为构造活动期,唐县期夷平面结束后,盆地沉降和山体隆升的差异增大,并与西部地区的青藏运动A幕相对应;Ⅱ阶段为1.9~3.3Ma,沉积速率为112m/Ma,为盆地的填充过程,气候变化控制沉积过程,但沧县隆起和黄骅坳陷之间沉降仍有差异。Ⅲ阶段为0~1.9Ma,沉积速率为202m/Ma,约在1.0~1.2Ma发生一期构造活动,与西部地区的昆黄运动时代大体相当。1.0Ma以来,沉积过程受构造和气候变化双重影响,沧县隆起和黄骅坳陷之间仍有差异沉降。唐山-邢台断裂带可能在1.9Ma之后活动性增强,并和张家口-蓬莱断裂带在沧县隆起上的交汇区域形成一个次级凹陷。     

Effect of loading duration on uncertainty in creep analysis of clay

Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis.     

早元古代滹沱群玄武岩Rb-Sr、Sm-Nd同位素体系初论

本文给出的滹沱群下亚群青石村组玄武岩Ｒｂ－Ｓｒ、Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ全岩等时线年龄为２０４５．８±１７和２３６９±３０Ｍａ（Ｚ），角门石４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ坪年龄和最高视年龄为１３６４±１９和１９３２±１９Ｍａ（１）；中亚群河边村组玄武岩Ｒｂ－Ｓｒ全岩等时线年龄图的投点呈完全离散状，Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ全岩等时线年龄为２３２２±３１Ｍａ（２），角门石４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ坪年龄和最高视年龄为１３６０和１７４２±１７Ｍａ（１）。根据上述Ｒｂ－Ｓｒ、Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ数据与已知青石村组、河边村组单颗粒锆石Ｕ－Ｐｂ法确定的成岩年龄２４５０±１０和２４００±２０Ｍａ（２）的明显差别，４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ均揭示为较典型受扰动的年龄谱和较发育的透人性构造、晚期岩脉等地质证据，认为Ｒｂ－Ｓｒ、Ｓｍ－Ｎｄ是重设的同位素体系。     

金沙江水电开发区域工程地质环境综合评价

金沙江所流经的川滇交界地区是中国西南典型的活动构造区，区内地震及地质灾害十分严重，所以在金沙江水电梯级规划中，进行该区域的工程地质环境系统评价尤为重要，本文选取对工程地质环境有较大影响的九种因素，从地壳稳定性、地面稳定性、岩土稳定性三方面建立层次分析模型。根据层次分析所取得的因素权重值，按好、较好、一般、较差、差5个等级进行工程地质环境质量综合评价及分工。工程地质环境特征的分区性向我们显示各梯级工程规划选址区所存在的重大工程地质问题。