一种选权迭代法的半参数回归模型在滑坡预测中的应用

传统抗差估计中的选权迭代法无法探测到模型的系统误差,而基于补偿最小二乘原理的半参数模型可以较好地分离出系统误差。通过建立选权迭代法的半参数回归模型,利用时间序列法、L曲线法分别确定模型中的正则化矩阵及平滑因子,并利用选权迭代法重新定权,同时降低了观测粗差和系统误差对参数估值的影响。通过仿真算例,并以重庆奉节县大坪滑坡实测数据为例,验证了选权迭代法的半参数回归方法应用到三峡库区滑坡预测的有效性和优越性。     

基于改进RANSAC算法的复杂建筑物屋顶点云分割

屋顶模型重建影响到建筑物完整模型重建质量,屋顶面点云分割质量对屋顶模型重建具有重要意义。针对传统RANSAC算法在屋顶点云面片分割时易产生错分割、过分割等问题,本文顾及点云位置信息,提出一种对点云重新分配的改进RANSAC点云分割算法。算法暂时剔除非平面内点,选取平面内点集中3个点作为初始样本,平面拟合判定邻域是否有效,从有效邻域中选取标准差值最小的3个点为初始模型。利用RANSAC算法对屋顶点云进行分割。利用K近邻算法统计误分类点与面片的距离降低误分类,优化过分割面片并进行连通性分析,利用距离及法向量一致性检验的方法重分配非平面内点。为验证本文算法有效性,选取芬兰Helsinki地区的3栋相互独立的复杂建筑物屋顶以及上海某小区的6栋建筑物群屋顶作为实验数据。在2组数据中,本文提出的改进RANSAC算法分割屋顶面片的平均准确率分别为92.17%、87.82%,78%的建筑物屋顶不存在过分割。在第2组数据中,所有分割面片上的点与其对应的最佳拟合平面的距离的标准差的平均值为0.030 m。实验结果表明,本文算法分割建筑物屋顶面片的准确率较高,较好的抑制了过分割现象,且抗噪能力强。     

The Limiting Effect of Deep Soil Water on Evapotranspiration of a Subtropical Coniferous Plantation Subjected to Seasonal Drought简

Seasonal drought is a common occurrence in humid climates.The year 2003 was the driest year during the period 1985-2011 in southeastern China.The objective of this study was to elucidate the impact of the exceptional drought in 2003,compared with eddy flux measurements during 2004-11,on the dynamics of evapotranspiration （ET） and related factors,as well as their underlying mechanisms,in a subtropical coniferous plantation in southeastern China.It was found that daily ET decreased from 5.34 to 1.84 mm during the intensive drought period and recovered to 4.80 mm during the subsquent recovering drought period.Path analysis indicated that ET was mainly determined by canopy conductance and deep soil water content （50 cm） during the intensive drought and recovering drought periods,respectively.The canopy conductance offset the positive effect of air vapor pressure deficit on ET when suffering drought stress,while the canopy conductance enhanced the positive effect of air temperature on ET during the late growing season.Because the fine roots of this plantation are mainly distributed in shallow soil,and the soil water in the upper 40 cm did not satisfy the demand for ET,stomatal closure and defoliation were evident as physiological responses to drought stress.     

水汽来源和环境因子对典型亚热带季风区降水稳定同位素的影响——以湖口地区为例

基于亚热带季风区湖口降水稳定同位素进行高频监测,利用HYSPLIT模型、潜在源贡献因子算法和质量浓度权重轨迹等方法对湖口区降水水汽来源进行分析,研究结果表明：① 湖口地区大气降水同位素组成呈夏季低、春冬季高变化趋势,湖口地区大气降水线斜率（8.19）和截距（12.5）与全球大气水线较为接近,说明整体上该研究区气候环境相对湿润。② 湖口降水同位素组成与降水量、湿度和温度均成显著负相关关系,这表明其具有显著的降水量效应、湿度效应和反温度效应。③ 湖口地区水汽来源主要受东南沿海内陆地区、南海和孟加拉湾源区水汽影响显著,其造成降水同位素值也明显偏小,尤其在夏季和秋季。④ 湖口地区降水同位素组成变化还受锋面天气系统（准静止锋和冷锋）和台风影响,台风降水的水汽来源主要来自中国南海和东海地区,此水汽往内陆输送过程中不断形成降水,此过程中降水重同位素（¹⁸O和²H）不断被冲刷造成其值逐渐变小;受准静止锋面系统影响降水δ¹⁸O值为极小值,这与锋面系统中冷、暖气团相遇造成强烈空气对流活动密切相关;而在冷锋面系统影响下,湖口地区降水δ¹⁸O值和d-excess较大,这与中国南方内陆局地再循环水汽补充有关,该研究结果将为鄱阳湖流域大气环流和水循环过程研究提供科学依据和数据支撑。     

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Tide‐induced groundwater head fluctuation in a coastal aquifer system with a submarine outcrop covered by a thin silt layer

We present an analytical solution of groundwater head response to tidal fluctuation in a coastal multilayered aquifer system consisting of an unconfined aquifer, a leaky confined aquifer and a semi‐permeable layer between them. The submarine outcrop of the confined aquifer is covered by a thin silt layer. A mathematical model and the analytical solution of this model are given. The silt layer reduces the amplitude of the hydraulic head fluctuation by a constant factor, and shifts the phase by a positive constant (time lag), both of which depend on the leakances of the silt layer and the semi‐permeable layer. The time lag is less than 1·5 h and 3·0 h for semi‐diurnal and diurnal sea tides respectively. When the leakance of the semi‐permeable layer or the silt layer assumes certain special values, the solution becomes the existing solutions derived by previous researchers. The amplitude of the hydraulic head fluctuation in the confined aquifer increases with the leakance of the silt layer and decreases with the leakance of the semi‐permeable layer, whereas the phase shift of the fluctuation decreases with both of them. A hypothetical example shows that neglecting the silt layer may result in significant parameter estimation discrepancy between the amplitude attenuation and the time‐lag fittings. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

越南阮朝顺化皇城嵌瓷装饰景观特征及影响机理分析

采用实地考查、信息采集、测绘数据、文献整理等研究方法,以越南阮朝顺化皇城修复的主要宫殿为例,从文化地理学和设计学的角度提取识别越南顺化皇城空间格局、装饰题材、色彩配置的景观特征,揭示其与中国岭南嵌瓷装饰的内在关系及影响机理。结果表明：顺化皇城嵌瓷在岭南建筑装饰中融入本土文化,之所以形成越南官署嵌瓷样式,是因为相似的自然地理环境、中国建筑陶瓷的区际辐射和阮朝统治阶层的青睐等因素共同作用的结果,嵌瓷装饰的文化表征集巧丽繁缛于一体的,彰显出宗法礼教与国家意志的皇权空间特质,成为东南亚王宫建筑景观的典范。为推进“一带一路”的建设,活化中外文明交流互鉴的文化遗产提供参考。     

川东及其周缘地区下寒武统龙王庙组沉积相

通过野外露头、钻测井、三维地震及区域地质调查等资料的综合研究发现,川东及其周缘地区下寒武统龙王庙组岩石类型以碳酸盐岩(粉晶白云岩、颗粒白云岩、泥晶灰岩和颗粒灰岩)为主,局部发育大套蒸发岩(膏岩和云质膏岩)及碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩的混合沉积;识别出局限台地相、开阔台地相、蒸发台地相和混积台地相4种沉积相类型,以局限台地相最为发育;川东及其周缘地区龙王庙组各沉积相带呈北东—南西向展布,混积台地相分布于研究区西北部,蒸发台地相集中发育在研究区西部华蓥山断裂东侧,局限台地相分布于混积台地相以东到盆地东边界以西的地区,开阔台地相分布于局限台地相以东到广海的部分地区。     

Numerical simulation of dynamic catastrophe of slope instability in three Gorges reservoir area based on FEM and SPH method

Natural Hazards - Affected by continuous heavy rainfall, a large number of landslide disasters occur every year in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, which causes serious property loss and...     

设施POI分布热点分析的网络核密度估计方法

设施POI(point of interest)在城市地理空间中往往聚集分布,呈现热点特征。对该类POI分布热点的分析大多采用基于欧氏距离的空间密度估计,忽略了城市空间通达、连接是沿着街道路径的事实,从而很难准确、客观地反映城市功能的热点布局。本研究针对该缺陷,利用基于网络路径距离的核密度计算方法确定热点的区域密度,并提出了一种简单、高效的网络分析算法。该算法扩展二维栅格膨胀操作,以一维形态算子的连续扩展计算POI在网络单元上的密度值,通过评价试验表明,该算法比现有算法具有更好的性能和可扩展性。通过实际POI数据分析发现,考虑街道网络约束的热点范围可凸显设施功能沿交通网络布局的空间特征,为区域规划、导航以及地理信息查询等应用提供有价值的空间知识与信息服务。