Discussion of “Interfacing the geographic information system,remote sensing,and the soil conservation service-curve number method to estimate curve number and runoff volume in the ASIR region of Saudi Arabia” by Fawzi S. Mohammad,Jan Adamowski

The soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) method is one of the most commonly used methods to compute the direct runoff from a rainfall event. Since the method was established, numerous researches were undertaken to improve the method through accurate estimation of its parameter and especially the curve number (CN). However, the essence of the SCS method, as an event-based Hortonian mechanism method, remained unchanged. The main assumption of the method related to the rainfall input is that the rainfall is continuous in time and uniform over the watershed. Mohammad and Adamowski (2015) paper apparently used the SCS method to estimate the annual runoff using the annual rainfall as one cumulative rainfall input value, which is a violation of the event-based principle of the method and of the assumption of the continuity of the rainfall event.To re-estimate the average annual runoff more realistically for the Asir region, Saudi Arabia, daily rainfall data from 14 rainfall stations are used for calculating the resulting runoff depths, on a daily event-by-event rainfall basis, throughout the whole simulation period. The resulting runoff depths are added for each year, and the total cumulative annual runoff values for each year are averaged to get the average annual runoff. The runoff values based on the previously mentioned procedure are an upper limit of the actual average annual runoff as the underlying SCS equations discard evaporation and similar long-term losses. Nevertheless, the average runoff values obtained in the discussion paper are an order of magnitude (at least five to tenfold) lower than the ones of the original paper. An equation is proposed to obtain a more realistic estimate of the average annual runoff, to be used with the average annual rainfall as an input, if the annual value is the only available rainfall information.     

Studying the impacts of groundwater evolution on the environment,west Qena city,Egypt

The current research has been conducted to evaluate groundwater aquifers qualitatively in the area located in the Western side of Qena city. The Quaternary aquifer represents the main groundwater source in the study area. It exists under unconfined to semiconfined conditions at depths varying between 4 m due North and 80 m in the South. The chemical analyses of the groundwater samples indicate that 77% of the total samples are fresh and 20% are brackish, while only 3% are saline. In addition, the iso-salinity contour map indicates that the salinity increases towards the central and northern parts of the study area. The total and permanent hardness increase as water salinity increases and vice versa in case of temporary hardness in the groundwater samples. The chemical water types and the ion ratios indicate meteoric origin of groundwater as well as the dissolution of terrestrial and marine salts. The contribution of recent recharge from the River Nile to a few groundwater wells in the study area varies from low to high. In addition, the most recharge sources are from the precipitation. Nitrate concentrations in groundwater increase towards the central and Northern areas significantly elevated in response to increasing anthropogenic land uses. Much of the solutes and physicochemical parameters in these waters are under the undesirable limits of World Health Organization (WHO) for drinking purpose, and a plot of sodium adsorption ratio versus EC shows that about 23% of the groundwater samples are good water quality, about 45% of groundwater samples are moderate quality, and 23% of the groundwater samples are intermediate water class, while the rest of samples (9%) are out of the range.     

An isolation system for limited seismic gaps in near‐fault zones

The ability of a recently proposed seismic isolation system, with inherent self‐stopping mechanism, to mitigate or even eliminate seismic pounding of adjacent structures is investigated under severe near‐fault earthquakes. The isolation system is referred to as roll‐in‐cage (RNC) isolator. It is a rolling‐based isolator that provides in one unit the necessary functions of vertical rigid support, horizontal flexibility with enhanced stability, hysteretic energy dissipation, and resistance to minor vibration loads. In addition, the RNC isolator is distinguished by a self‐stopping (buffer) mechanism to limit the bearing displacement under excitations stronger than a design earthquake or at limited seismic gaps, and a linear gravity‐based self‐recentering mechanism to prevent permanent bearing displacement without causing vertical fluctuation of the isolated structure. A previously developed multifeature SAP2000 model of the RNC isolator is improved in this paper to account for the inherent buffer mechanism's damping. Then, the effectiveness of the isolator's buffer mechanism in limiting peak bearing displacements is studied together with its possibly arising negative influence on the isolation efficiency. After that, the study investigates how to alleviate or even eliminate those possibly arising drawbacks, due to the developed RNC isolator's inner pounding as a result of its buffer activation, to achieve efficient seismic isolation with no direct structure‐to‐structure pounding, considering limited seismic gaps with adjacent structures and near‐fault earthquakes. The results show that the RNC isolator could be an efficient solution for aseismic design in near‐fault zones considering limited seismic gaps. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event

We propose a method for determining the possible magnitude of a potentially largest induced seismic event derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law and an estimate of total released seismic moment. We emphasize that the presented relationship is valid for induced (not triggered) seismicity, as the total seismic moment of triggered seismicity is not bound by the injection. The ratio of the moment released by the largest event and weaker events is determined by the constants a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter law. We show that for a total released seismic moment, it is possible to estimate number of events greater than a given magnitude. We determine the formula for the moment magnitude of a probable largest seismic event with one occurrence within the recurrence interval (given by one volumetric change caused by mining or injecting). Finally, we compare theoretical and measured values of the moment magnitudes of the largest induced seismic events for selected geothermal and hydraulic fracturing projects.     

Uncertainty in recurrence rates of large magnitude events due to short historic catalogs

Seismic hazard analysis requires knowledge of the recurrence rates of large magnitude earthquakes that drive the hazard at low probabilities of interest for seismic design. Earthquake recurrence is usually determined through studies of the historic earthquake catalogue for a given region. Reliable historic catalogues generally span time periods of 100–200 years in North America, while large magnitude events (M?≥?7) have recurrence rates on the order of hundreds or thousands of years in many areas, resulting in large uncertainty in recurrence rates for large events. Using Monte Carlo techniques and assuming typical recurrence parameters, we simulate earthquake catalogues that span long periods of time. We then split these catalogues into smaller catalogues spanning 100–200 years that mimic the length of historic catalogues. For each of these simulated “historic” catalogues, a recurrence rate for large magnitude events is determined. By comparing recurrence rates from one historic-length catalogue to another, we quantify the uncertainty associated with determining recurrence rates from short historic catalogues. The use of simulations to explore the uncertainty (rather than analytical solutions) allows us flexibility to consider issues such as the relative contributions of aleatory versus epistemic uncertainty, and the influence of fitting method, as well as lending insight into extreme-event statistics. The uncertainty in recurrence rates of large (M?>?7) events is about a factor of two in regions of high seismicity, due to the shortness of historic catalogues. This uncertainty increases greatly with decreasing seismic activity. Uncertainty is dependent on the length of the catalogue as well as the fitting method used (least squares vs. maximum likelihood). Examination of 90th percentile recurrence rates reveals that epistemic uncertainty in the true parameters may cause recurrence rates determined from historic catalogues to be uncertain by a factor greater than 50.     

Optimization of slope angle and its seismic stability: A case study for the proposed open pit coalmine in Phulbari, NW Bangladesh

The present study reflects upon the results of substantial program of two-dimensional Finite Element Method （FEM） numerical analyses of the open pit that links to slope angle optimization associated with the safety factor of the pit slope of a coal mine in Bangladesh. In the present analyses, two types of models have been presented. The first model estimates safety factor without seismic effect on the overall pit slope of the model; the second model incorporates safety factor with seismic stability of the model. The calculated optimum slope angle of the first model is 31% with a rational safety factor of 1.51, prior to the seismic effect. However, the value is reduced to 0.93, 0.82, and 0.72, after we applies the seismic effect in the second model with M6, M6.5, and M7, respectively. Finally, our modeling results emphasize that for the case of the proposed Phulbari coalmine, there is extremely high prospect for causing massive slope failure along the optimum pit slope angle with 31% if the mine area felt seismic shaking, like the Sikkim （in northern India） earthquake with M6.9 on September 18, 2011.     

Seismic isolation for low‐to‐medium‐rise buildings using granulated rubber–soil mixtures: numerical study

This paper presents the preliminary research works on a potential seismic isolation method that makes use of scrap rubber tires for the protection of low‐to‐medium‐rise buildings. The method involves mixing shredded rubber tire particles with soil materials and placing the mixtures around building foundations, which provides a function similar to that of a cushion. Meanwhile, the stockpiling of scrap tires is a significant threat to our environment, and the engineering community has been looking for long‐term viable solutions to the recycling and reuse of rubber. A finite element program has been developed for modeling the time‐domain dynamic responses of soil–foundation–structure system, by which the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method have been evaluated. In general, the structural responses, in terms of acceleration and inter‐story drift, can be reduced by 40–60%. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the spatio-temporal patterns of settlement growth in a metropolitan region of Ghana

Retrospective understanding of the magnitude and pace of urban expansion is necessary for effective growth management in metropolitan regions. The objective of this paper is to quantify the spatial–temporal patterns of urban expansion in the Greater Kumasi Sub-Region (GKSR)—a functional region comprising eight administrative districts in Ghana, West Africa. The analysis is based on Landsat remote sensing images from 1986, 2001 and 2014 which were classified using supervised maximum likelihood algorithm in ERDAS IMAGINE. We computed three complementary growth indexes namely; Average Annual Urban Expansion Rate, Urban Expansion Intensity Index (UEII) and Urban Expansion Differentiation Index to estimate the amount and intensity of expansion over the 28-year period. Overall, urban expansion in the GKSR has been occurring at an average annual rate of 5.6 %. Consequently, the sub-region’s built-up land increased by 313 km² from 88 km² in 1986 to 400 km² in 2014. The analysis further show that about 72 % of the total built-up land increase occurred in the last 13 years alone, with UEII value of 0.605 indicating a moderate intensity of urban expansion. Moreover, the metropolitan-core of the sub-region, being the focal point of urban development and the historical origins of expansion, accounted for more than half of the total built-up land increase over the 28-year period. Over the last decade and half however, urban expansion has spilled into the neighbouring peripheral districts, with the highest intensity and fastest rate of expansion occurring in districts located north and north east of the sub-regional core. We recommend a comprehensive regional growth management strategy grounded in effective strategic partnerships among the respective administrative districts to curb unsustainable urban expansion.     

Contamination and impacts of new antifouling biocide Irgarol-1051 on subtropical coral reef waters

Coral reefs are deteriorating worldwide due to various stresses, including pollution of hazardous chemicals such as antifouling chemicals. Occurrence and impacts of a new antifouling biocide Irgarol-1051 (2-methylthio-4-tert- butylamino -6-cyclopropylamino -s-triazine) have been studied in coral reef waters around Okinawa Islands, Japan. The average concentration of Irgarol detected at commercial and fisheries Ports was 24.70 ± 9.88 ng/L. In Naha Bay, the average concentration of Irgarol was 10.00±12.98 ng/L. The average level detected around the Ports has already approaches the environmental risk limit for the marine organisms. Irgarol was detected in waters at the frequency of 92.3 % (24/26) of the total samples collected during two sampling campaigns (September and December, 2007) at the Ports. In Naha Bay, Irgarol was detected by 40.5 % (17/42) of the total water samples collected monthly from Sep., 2007 to Feb., 2008, indicating that Irgarol is widely detected along the coastal shorelines of Okinawa Island. The eco- toxicological study revealed that the rate of photosynthesis in the coral Galaxea fascicularis was significantly reduced by 18 % and 121 % relative to control when the corals were exposed to 1000 and 10,000 ng/L of Irgarol, respectively. The calcification rate dropped by 98.3 % relative to control when the corals were exposed to 10,000 ng/L of Irgarol. The results of the present study report the wide occurrence of new antifouling biocide Irgarol around coastal areas of Okinawa Island. However, the contamination does not pose serious threat on the photosynthesis and calcification of corals under short term exposure (96 h).     

Green space planning and land use: An assessment of urban regional and green structure planning in Greater Copenhagen

Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 106(2):7–20, 2006

In its Regional Plan of 2005, The Greater Copenhagen Authority (abbreviated as “HUR” in Danish) places special emphasis on the future recreational values associated with the regional green structure. In this paper, the development of the urban green structure in Greater Copenhagen is elaborated upon, focusing on land use changes and the effectiveness of regionally coordinated planning measures. EU MOLAND data are used to analyse the development of the region's green structure during the period 1954 to 1998. Analysis of two “green wedges” within the green structure illustrates that the development of the green recreational areas is the result of both formal and more informal planning initiatives. Development has shown equal phases that correspond to the applied regional planning measures and the general economic conditions. However, local preferences in the involved municipalities likewise have played an important role and have resulted in different urbanisation pressure within the two wedges. Land use has transformed from an agricultural to a primarily recreational landscape. In some areas, however, urbanisation pressure has resulted in residential and green industrial areas instead of the planned recreational land use. Based on its historical development it is concluded that future preservation and development of the green structure in Greater Copenhagen requires regional planning measures to be incorporated into municipal plans. In this way the increasingly independent municipalities will comply to objectives of the Regional Plan 2005.