国土资源科技基础信息分析系统的设计与实现

本文从需求分析、系统整体设计、系统实现与应用三个方面介绍了国土资源科技基础信息分析系统。系统旨在实现科技统计数据采集、传输、审核、汇总、管理与分析的全流程信息化,创新科技信息服务,为国土资源科技管理与决策提供服务和支撑。     

Fengyun-4 Geostationary Satellite-Based Solar Energy Nowcasting System and Its Application in North China

Surface solar irradiance (SSI) nowcasting (0–3 h) is an effective way to overcome the intermittency of solar energy and to ensure the safe operation of grid-connected solar power plants. In this study, an SSI estimate and nowcasting system was established using the near-infrared channel of Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite. The system is composed of two key components: The first is a hybrid SSI estimation method combining a physical clear-sky model and an empirical cloudy-sky model. The second component is the SSI nowcasting model, the core of which is the derivation of the cloud motion vector (CMV) using the block-matching method. The goal of simultaneous estimation and nowcasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is fulfilled. The system was evaluated under different sky conditions using SSI measurements at Xianghe, a radiation station in the North China Plain. The results show that the accuracy of GHI estimation is higher than that of DNI estimation, with a normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of 22.4% relative to 45.4%. The nRMSE of forecasting GHI and DNI at 30–180 min ahead varied within 25.1%–30.8% and 48.1%–53.4%, respectively. The discrepancy of SSI estimation depends on cloud occurrence frequency and shows a seasonal pattern, being lower in spring–summer and higher in autumn–winter. The FY-4A has great potential in supporting SSI nowcasting, which promotes the development of photovoltaic energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in China. The system can be improved further if calibration of the empirical method is improved.     

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions in a Closed-cell and Non-homogenous MBL Stratocumulus Cloud

A closed-cell marine stratocumulus case during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) aircraft field campaign is selected to examine the heterogeneities of cloud and drizzle microphysical properties and the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. The spatial and vertical variabilities of cloud and drizzle microphysics are found in two different sets of flight legs: Leg-1 and Leg-2, which are parallel and perpendicular to the cloud propagation, respectively. The cloud along Leg-2 was close to adiabatic, where cloud-droplet effective radius and liquid water content linearly increase from cloud base to cloud top with less drizzle. The cloud along Leg-1 was sub-adiabatic with lower cloud-droplet number concentration and larger cloud-droplet effective, but higher drizzle droplet number concentration, larger drizzle droplet median diameter and drizzle liquid water content. The heavier drizzle frequency and intensity on Leg-1 were enhanced by the collision-coalescence processes within cloud due to strong turbulence. The sub-cloud precipitation rate on Leg-1 was significantly higher than that along Leg-2. As a result, the sub-cloud accumulation mode aerosols and CCN on Leg-1 were depleted, but the coarse model aerosols increased. This further leads to a counter-intuitive phenomenon that the CCN is less than cloud-droplet number concentration for Leg-1. The average CCN loss rates are ?3.89 \begin{document}$\mathrm{c}{\mathrm{m}}^{-3}\;{\mathrm{h}}^{-1}$\end{document} and ?0.77 \begin{document}$\mathrm{c}{\mathrm{m}}^{-3}\;{\mathrm{h}}^{-1}$\end{document} on Leg-1 and Leg-2, respectively. The cloud and drizzle heterogeneities inside the same stratocumulus can significantly alter the sub-cloud aerosols and CCN budget. Hence it should be treated with caution in the aircraft assessment of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions.     

Plant drought tolerance trait is the key parameter in improving the modeling of terrestrial transpiration in arid and semi-arid regions

陆面过程蒸腾作用的模拟制约着天气,气候降水预测的精确度.近几十年来,为了更好地描述植被蒸腾的水力约束,陆面过程模式发展了基于植物性状的植物水力胁迫方案.然而,我们对于植物性状在蒸腾模拟中的地位仍然缺乏了解,植物性状对蒸腾的重要性仍需进一步量化.本研究利用Morris方法评估植物性状参数在通用陆面模式植物水力胁迫方案(CoLM-P₅₀HS)中的重要性,针对17种植物性状,筛选出最为重要的:耐旱性状(P₅₀),气孔性状,和光合作用性状.在12个FLUXNET站点中,参数的重要性由归一化敏感度来衡量.P₅₀的重要性随着降水的减少而增加,而气孔性状和光合作用性状的重要性则随着降水的减少而减少.在干旱或半干旱地区,P₅₀比气孔性状和光合作用性状更重要,这意味着当植物经常经历干旱时,水力安全策略比植物生长策略更关键.而耐旱性状的巨大变异性进一步暗示了多种植物水力安全策略的共存.忽视P₅₀的变异性可能会对陆面过程模式蒸腾作用的模拟造成严重误差.因此,为了更好地表示植物水力功能的变异性,需要增加对耐旱性状的观测并耦合到陆面模式中.     

陕北延安地区基底断裂及其油气地质意义

以重磁力资料为基础,结合钻井及地质地震资料,推测出研究区有8条基底断裂。已有油田大都沿基底断裂走向分布在断裂两侧,勘探井的试气产量高低与基底断裂分布关系密切,基底断裂的"隐性"活动导致沉积盖层中发育构造裂缝且以垂直裂缝为主,裂缝不仅能作为油气运移的通道,而且能提高储层的孔隙度和渗透率,对研究区内油气分布及储层产能起关键作用。     

黑河流域生态—水文过程综合遥感观测联合试验总体设计

介绍了"黑河流域生态—水文过程综合遥感观测联合试验"的背景、科学目标、试验组成和试验方案。试验的总体目标是显著提升对流域生态和水文过程的观测能力,建立国际领先的流域观测系统,提高遥感在流域生态—水文集成研究和水资源管理中的应用能力。由基础试验、专题试验、应用试验、产品与方法研究和信息系统组成。其中,①基础试验:搭载微波辐射计、成像光谱仪、热像仪、激光雷达等航空遥感设备,开展一系列关键生态和水文参量的观测;发展遥感正向模型及反演和估算方法。形成覆盖全流域的水文气象综合观测网,为流域生态—水文模型研究提供更有代表性的模型参数、驱动数据及更高精度的验证数据。构建无线传感器网络,度量生态水文模型所需的若干关键的驱动、参数和模型状态的空间异质性。开展航空遥感定标和地基遥感试验。依托传感器网络,并辅之以地面同步和加密观测,开展遥感产品真实性检验。②专题试验:开展"非均匀下垫面多尺度地表蒸散发观测试验",采用密集的涡动相关仪、大孔径闪烁仪与自动气象站的观测矩阵,为揭示地表蒸散发的空间异质性,实现非均匀下垫面地表蒸散发的尺度扩展,发展和验证蒸散发模型提供基础数据。③应用试验:在流域上、中、下游分别开展针对积雪和冻土水文、灌溉水平衡和作物生长、生态耗水的综合观测试验,将观测数据和遥感产品用于上游分布式水文模型、中游地表水—地下水—农作物生长耦合模型、下游生态耗水模型,通过实证研究提升遥感在流域生态—水文集成研究和水资源管理中的应用能力。加强试验将在2012年5月起按中游、上游、下游的顺序展开,全流域持续观测期为2013—2015年。在各类试验的支持下,开展全流域生态—水文关键参量遥感产品生产,发展尺度转换方法,建立多源遥感数据同化系统。     

分形技术在川西坳陷储层裂缝预测中的应用

川西坳陷是四川盆地油气勘探的重点,而须家河组二段又是该区域重要的储层。该储层具有非均质性强、致密化程度高的特点,裂缝发育情况对油气勘探具有决定性作用。通过对分形技术的原理、方法的介绍,并利用该方法对须二段储层的裂缝进行预测。结果表明,油气藏的存在与否与裂缝发育和盖层发育两个因素直接相关。研究区内须二段储层大部分属于裂缝发育区,对油气勘探很有利。     

粗大误差在船坞围堰安全施工监测中的运用与分析

船坞监测数据对船坞围堰的正常施工起着非常重要的作用,但是由于各种不正确的因素导致监测数据与实际情况不符,而这些异常测值不能通过直观的方法进行剔除,从而对船坞围堰的安全施工监控产生较大的影响,必须进行判断和处理。分别介绍了3σ（拉伊达）、Grubbs（格罗布斯）、Dixon（狄克逊）3种常用排除粗大误差的准则,并应用于具体的船坞围堰安全施工监测。结果表明,这些准则能快速、方便、有效地排除异常测值,为船坞围堰安全施工提供帮助。     

雪峰山西侧盆山过渡带震旦系-下古生界油气地质调查研究进展

近年来针对雪峰山西侧盆山过渡带震旦系-下古生界油气新区新层系所开展的主要油气地质综合调查研究工作及取得的主要进展有：一是综合利用野外地质调查、微古化石和同位素地层测试及以往资料成果,建立完善了震旦系-下古生界统一的多重地层划分对比方案,新建了几丁虫等典型微古化石剖面和同位素地层剖面;二是基本查明区内构造格架和主要褶皱、断裂、滑脱层的分布特征,明确雪峰山主要为准原地构造隆起成因;三是较高精度地恢复了震旦纪-早古生代重点时期岩相古地理面貌及其沉积充填演化序列,揭示了沉积相带对生储岩石发育分布的控制关系;四是更详细地圈定了震旦系-下古生界9个重点层组烃源岩和储集岩的发育分布特征,划分出3套有利生储盖组合;五是解剖总结认为构造抬升和断裂活动是区内及邻区古油藏形成的主要控制因素．其中断裂是决定现今油气保存与勘探选区最重要的因素之一;六是优选出利川-恩施等4个有利含气远景区及2个较有利含气远景区,为深入开展油气勘探目标区优选、实现油气勘探新发现奠定工作基础。