华北平原冬麦田土壤CH4的吸收特征研究

利用静态箱/气相色谱(GC)法,对华北平原冬小麦拔节—成熟期间麦田土壤CH4气体通量进行了测定,得出华北平原典型冬麦田土壤是大气CH4的弱吸收汇。试验期间土壤CH4通量存在明显的季节变化和日变化,麦田拔节—成熟期间土壤CH4通量日平均值为-18.3μg.m-2.h-1,波动范围为-4.3~-24.4μg.m-2.h-1;在土壤CH4通量的日变化中,观测到麦田土壤在午间和夜间都有一个吸收峰,峰值出现的时间因生育期不同而有所不同。试验期间CH4通量日平均值与土壤温度关系不明显,而与土壤水分呈负相关(α=0.01);日变化中土壤CH4通量与地表温度的相关性较差,而与5 cm地温相关密切。麦田拔节—成熟期间土壤CH4通量日平均值随NH4 -N施用量的增加呈递减规律,农田秸秆还田后不利于土壤对CH4的吸收。     

基于不同分辨率和参数化方案的新疆区域数值模式性能初步评估

基于中尺度数值模式WRF,选取新疆两次强降水过程,设计3个试验方案,其中试验1为控制试验,试验2提高分辨率,试验3提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案,初步评估不同分辨率和参数化方案对新疆区域2m温度、10m风速、降水预报的影响。结果表明:(1)提高分辨率对2m温度、10m风速模拟精度均有提高,2m温度预报精度提高约0.5℃,降低了日间温度模拟冷偏差;10m风速预报精度提高约0.5m/s,降低了风速模拟正偏差;但提高分辨率后,模式出现虚假降水预报的情况。(2)提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案后,2m温度模拟误差略有减小,模拟偏差减小约0.2℃;10m风速模拟误差增大约0.5m/s,模拟偏差增大超过0.5m/s;对降水落区、量级的模拟精度显著提高,减小了降水中心的模拟强度,对虚假降水预报有一定修正。     

Temporal Characteristics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO and Their Relationship Analyzed with Method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)

1. IntroductionPacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a long-termENSO-like variability of the North Pacific. It can becharacterized by the first principal component of EOFof the North Pacific SST (Zhu and Yang, 2003; Tren-berth, 1990; Yang and Zhang, 2003). ENSO is thestrongest signal of annular change of global climatesystem (Trenberth, 1997). The spatial pattern of PDOis a wedge similar to El Nino. In the cool (warm)phases of PDO, the central and northwest Pacific is ofwarm (co…     

两种温室气体排放情景下中国汛期江淮暴雨低涡特征研究

本文基于一个水平分辨率为50 km的区域气候模式RegCM4(Regional Climate Model,version 4.0)的模拟与预估结果,对我国汛期江淮暴雨低涡在气候变化背景下的统计特征与合成结构进行分析,进一步对两种温室排放情景下未来中国汛期的江淮暴雨低涡特征进行预估。结果表明:RegCM4模式对环境要素及低涡都具有一定的模拟能力,低涡的伸展高度、生命期及暴雨位置模拟结果与观测较为接近,但模拟的低涡个数、最大暖区高度以及温、湿要素分布均比实际略偏低,而风速和低涡的强度模拟则偏强;在未来两种温室排放情景预估方面, RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways,简称RCP)典型浓度排放情景下,暴雨低涡数量比例减少,强度减弱,但低涡发展高度仍以850 hPa为主,生命期多为2 d以内,低涡雨区分布及最大暖区高度均与历史时段相近;RCP8.5情景下,暴雨低涡比例明显大于RCP4.5情景,低涡发展高度以700 hPa为主,生命期达3 d的增多,强度增强,最大暖区厚度范围显著伸展。两种情景下均有低涡中温度锋区减弱,而湿度锋区增强,但RCP8.5情景减弱与增强更显著,显示更高的温室气体排放将导致未来出现更强的暴雨低涡,造成伴随暴雨的低涡灾害性天气的增加,因此应进一步深化对低涡暴雨灾害性天气发展趋势的研究。     

初值形成方法对降水数值预报的影响

北欧有限区域模式ＨＩＲＬＡＭ被应用于中国的暴雨个例以探讨初值形成方法对有限区域模式定量降水数值预报的影响,对两种初值形成方案进行了对比,一种是由ＨＩＲＬＡＭ自己的数值同化系统提供初值,另一种是直接内插ＥＣＭＷＦ全球模式的相应分析场,与这两种方案对应的数值试验分别是控制试验（ＣＯＮＬ）和对比试验（ＣＯＭＰ）,将ＣＯＮＬ和ＣＯＭＰ的降水预报与观测值比较,结果表明：（１）当为ＣＯＭＰ提供初值的ＥＣＭＷＦ     

2001年春季中国北方沙尘暴的环流动力结构分析

通过对2001年春季中国北方5次沙尘暴的高度场，涡度场，散度场和风场的分析，研究了沙尘暴强盛期的环流动力结构。结果表明，在5次沙尘暴强盛期有相似的环流动力结构特征。在沙尘暴强盛期的高度场上，蒙古国有深厚的低值系统，乌拉尔高压发展，其间的强气压梯度是沙尘暴的动力源；低值系统有正涡度中心支持，外围是负涡度区，其间有强涡度梯度带；低值中心伴随有低层辐合高层辐散的垂直结构，易于发生近地面大风和上升气流，有利于地面起沙上扬，形成沙尘暴，大风区与强涡度梯度带一致，强风带切变形成的涡度输送有利于加强低值系统，进而增强风场。     

青藏高原低涡活动对降水影响的统计分析

利用1998—2004年逐日08:00(北京时,下同)和20:00 500hPa高空图、日雨量和青藏高原低涡(下称高原低涡)切变线年鉴资料,统计分析了冬、夏半年不同生命史的高原低涡对我国和四川盆地东、西部降水的影响。结果表明,冬、夏半年高原低涡以东部涡占多数,6-10月有三分之一的东部涡能移出高原。冬半年高原低涡出现次数少,约占全年的五分之一,但也可造成高原及其周边地区的雨雪天气,特别是生命史超过36h以上的高原低涡有近半数可移出高原,造成高原区域暴雨雪,四川盆地中雨,半数可造成云南大雨雪或暴雨雪。夏半年,随着低涡生命史的增长,高原低涡影响高原及其周边地区和我国其他地区的降水范围和强度在增大,生命史超过60h以上的高原低涡可造成高原暴雨、甘肃中雨以上、四川盆地暴雨或大暴雨及云南大部分地区大雨以上的降水,每年都有1～5次可影响到华中、华东地区产生大雨以上的降水。100°E以东的高原低涡,不论是否移出,均可造成四川盆地中雨以上的降水。影响四川盆地降水的高原低涡以偏东路径为主,但东南路径影响更强。     

近百年全球平均气温年际变化型态的低频变率特征

利用时间上扩展的经验正交函数（TEEOF）分析方法，对近百年全球及南北半球平均气温一年、三年、六年和十年的变化形态及其频率进行诊断，结果表明，TEEOF第一模态占总方差贡献的50％以上，各种年际振动的第一模态基本上代表了与气候变化有关的年变化型，并能反映出气温的长期趋势变化，特别是十年际的第一模态，冬季气温湿示出较强的上升趋势，相应的第一时间主分量趋势与实际温度序列的走势非常一致。全球及南北半球各时域TEEOF除第一模态及一年TEEOF的第模态外，其它特同量所表示的年际变化型态各有差异，相应主分量都与一定的年际准周期振动结构的长期变率有关。年变化型态的T^2检验表明，南半球及全球的突变时间与年平均气温单要素t检验结果差异不大，而北半球的差异明显，表明T^2检验，对具有多变量的型态突变的检测比单要素的t检验理为合理。     

Vertical tilt structure of East Asian trough and its interannual variation mechanism in boreal winter

Vertical tilt structure of the East Asian trough (EAT) and its interannual variation mechanism in boreal winter are studied using NCEP/NCAR, ERA40, and NCEP/DOE reanalyses. A vertical tilt index (VTI) is defined as the mean slope of vertical trough line on the longitude-height cross section to describe the tilting extent of the EAT, with high index indicating a more west-tilted trough and vice versa. The VTI series derived from the three reanalysis datasets are highly correlated with each other during the corresponding periods. A significant positive correlation is found between the VTI and the zonal range of the vertical trough line. Based on the close relation, a possible physical mechanism is proposed to explain the interannual variation of VTI. It demonstrates that positive (negative) temperature anomalies within the mean zonal range of the EAT result in expansion (contraction) of the zonal range and lead to high (low) VTI years. The composite analyses based on the three reanalysis datasets well support the proposed mechanism. Furthermore, the general relationship between the VTI and the zonal temperature gradient is discussed based on the proposed mechanism. It is revealed that the asymmetric change of temperature gradient on the western and eastern sides of the EAT plays an important role in the variation of VTI, which suggests that the tilting extent of the EAT is strongly affected by the two-order zonal change of temperature instead of the zonal temperature gradient (i.e., one-order change). Climate variability not only in the simultaneous winter but also in the following spring and summer over East Asia is closely related to the variation of the VTI. This study on the vertical tilting of the EAT may enrich knowledge of the East Asian winter monsoon and the climate variability over East Asia and may be helpful in improving the regional climate prediction in East Asia.     

Aerosol spectra and new particle formation observed in various seasons in Nanjing

The aerosol number spectrum and gas pollutants were measured and the new particle formation （NPF） events were discussed in Nanjing. The results showed that the size distributions of aerosol number concen- trations exhibited distinct seasonal variations, implying the relations of particle sizes and their sources and sinks. The number concentrations of particles in the nuclei mode （10-30 nm）, Aitken mode （30-100 nm）, accumulation mode （100 -1000 nm） and coarse mode （〉1μm） varied in the order of summer 〉 spring 〉 autumn, summer 〉 autumn 〉 spring, autumn 〉 summer 〉 spring, and spring 〉 autumn 〉summer, re- spectively. The diurnal variation of total aerosol number concentrations showed three peaks in all observed periods, which corresponded to two rush hours and the photochemistry period at noon. In general, the NPF in summer occurred under the conditions of east winds and dominant air masses originating from marine areas with high relative humidity （50%-70%） and strong solar radiations （400 -700 W m-2）. In spring, the NPF were generally accompanied by low relative humidity （14%-30%） and strong solar radiations （400-600 W m-2）. The new particle growth rates （GR） were higher in the summertime in the range of 10- 16 nm h-1. In spring, the GR were 6.8-8.3 nm h-1. Under polluted air conditions, NPF events were seldom captured in autumn in Nanjing. During NPF periods, positive correlations between 10- 30 nm particles and 03 were detected, particularly in spring, indicating that NPF can be attributed to photochemical reactions.