赣江流域TRMM遥感降水对地面站点观测的可替代性

多卫星遥感降水产品为无/缺资料地区的水文过程模拟提供了新的数据来源。结合地面高密度雨量站网,在中国典型暴雨区赣江流域定量评估两种TRMM降水产品(3B42V7和3B42RTV7)的精度,并通过耦合分布式水文模型CREST,探讨了水文模拟中TRMM卫星降水产品对地面观测降水的可替代性。研究表明:3B42和3B42RT与地面观测流域平均月降水相关系数达到0.9以上,偏差在5%以内,日尺度上相关性略差,偏差略有增加。同时设计2种水文模拟对比试验:情景I为静态参数,使用地面雨量站降水率定模型参数,采用卫星降雨验证模型;情景II为动态参数,采用卫星数据重新率定模型参数,再利用卫星降雨验证模型。对比结果表明:情景II中完全使用TRMM降水后模型效果明显改善,证明TRMM卫星数据在赣江流域具有替代地面站点观测的潜力,但需要重新根据卫星降雨率定模型。     

基于偏最小二乘回归理论的西北太平洋热带气旋强度统计预报方法

热带气旋(TC)的强度预报是TC研究中的前沿性问题和实际业务中的难点.当前具有参考价值的预报方法主要是统计类或模式释用类方法,例如气候持续性(CLIPER)模型等.CLIPER模型的核心技术为多元线性回归,这种回归算法在预报因子之间存在多重相关性时会丧失建模的稳健性,进而影响CLIPER模型的预报精度.为了提高CLIP...     

西北太平洋台风“海棠”结构的GPS下投式探空仪观测分析

以0505号强台风“海棠”为例,利用“侵台台风之飞机侦察及下投式探空仪观测实验”(Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region,DOTSTAR)提供的高垂直分辨率GPS下投式探空仪(Dropsonde)观测资料,研究和比较了...     

Cyclone Phase Space Characteristics of the Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

The cyclone phase space (CPS) method has been utilized to evaluate the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in many recent publications. However, these studies mainly focused over the North Atlantic basin. In this paper, the CPS characteristics of all the cyclones over the western North Pacific are investigated and discussed, with three parameters calculated from the best-track data of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Tokyo and the Japanese 25-yr reanalysis data. It is concluded that most TCs over the western North Pacific possess the non-frontal and warm-core structure, while a larger number of cyclones that have undergone ET hold the frontal and cold-core structure. The spatial pattern of the CPS parameters indicates that the areas of tropical and extratropical cyclone activities could be demarcated by 30°N. The composite and individual series of three parameters of the CPS indicate that the transformation of −V _T^U from positive to negative leads to the start of ET, and could be considered as a potential predictor in operationally forecasting an ET event.     

Fault tectonic analysis of Kii peninsula,Southwest Japan: Preliminary approach to Neogene paleostress sequence near the Nankai subduction zone

The southern part of the Outer Zone of Southwest Japan including the Kii peninsula belongs to the tectonic ‘shadow zone’, where fewer conspicuous active faults and less Quaternary sediments develop than in the Nankai subduction zone and Inner Zone of Southwest Japan. In order to study the paleostress sequence of the Kii peninsula, we analyzed fault‐slip data and tension gashes at pilot sites of Early–Middle Miocene forearc sediments and Late Cretaceous accretionary complex. According to the results, six faulting events are reconstructed in sequence: (i) east–west extension (normal faulting); (ii) east–west compression and north–south extension (strike‐slip faulting); (iii) NNW–SSE compression and ENE–WSW extension (strike‐slip faulting); (iv) northeast–southwest compression and northwest–southeast extension (strike‐slip faulting); (v) WNW–ESE compression (strike‐slip or reverse faulting); and (vi) NNE–SSW extension. The north–south to NNW–SSE trending dyke swarm of Middle Miocene age in the Kii peninsula is thought to be related to Event 3, implying that Event 3 was active at least during the Middle Miocene. Because Event 6 is recognized solely at a site, the overall latest faulting event seems to be Event 5. Assuming that the compression results from the motion of the crust or plate, the compression direction of Event 5 is in good accordance with the present‐day WNW crustal velocity vectors of the Kii peninsula. The stress trajectory map of Southeast Korea and Southwest Japan reveals that the current compression directions of the Kii peninsula correspond to the combinatory stress fields of the Himalayan and Philippine Sea tectonic domains.     

刈割+水淹治理互花米草技术对湿地土壤性状及其有机碳含量的影响

为了监测刈割+水淹+种植秋茄综合治理互花米草对土壤理化特征的影响,于治理前、治理1个月后、治理8个月后采集治理区和对照区(互花米草样地)土壤,测定土壤有机碳含量等理化指标。结果表明,整个治理过程中,互花米草治理区和对照区各土壤层pH值无显著性差异(P>0.05),治理过程未造成土壤pH值的变化;治理区表层土壤(0～10cm)土壤密度显著高于对照区,其他土层则无显著差异(P>0.05),治理过程导致表层土壤板结,土壤密度增大;此外,治理1个月后,治理区表层土壤(0～10cm)有机碳显著高于对照区(P<0.05),治理8个月后则显著低于对照区(P<0.05),治理措施导致土壤表层土壤有机碳含量先增加后降低。总之,刈割+水淹+种植秋茄综合治理互花米草对湿地表层土壤有机碳含量等产生一些影响。     

利用InSAR和GPS形变数据反演断层深部滑动的敏感性分析

为探究InSAR和GPS形变数据对断层深部滑动的敏感性,分别模拟走滑断层、正断层和逆冲断层在不同深度的滑动分布模型,并基于不同精度的InSAR和GPS形变数据反演了3类断层在不同深度位置的滑移分布。对3类断层的结果进行对比分析发现,实验得到的结论具有较好的一致性。结果表明,在相同深度时,基于高精度InSAR和GPS形变数据反演的深部滑动残差较小,而基于常规精度InSAR数据反演结果的残差较大;随着深度的增加,反演深部滑动的探测性呈逐步下降的趋势,其中基于高精度InSAR和GPS数据的滑动探测性高于基于常规精度InSAR的滑动探测性。当InSAR和GPS数据精度相同时,维度对断层深部滑动的探测性有一定影响。     

赣南地区土壤硒元素地球化学特征及其影响因素研究：以青塘—梅窖地区为例

以赣南青塘—梅窖地区为典型区开展详细的调查研究工作,共采集了表层(0~20 cm)土壤样品889件,农作物样品72件。系统地分析了土壤及农作物中硒元素含量的空间分布特征及其与成土母质、土地利用类型和土壤理化性质的关系。结果表明：研究区土壤硒平均含量为044 mg·kg-1,其中面积比例为4859%的土壤硒含量处于足硒状态,面积比例为4286%的土壤硒含量处于富硒状态。在空间分布上,缺硒和潜在硒不足土壤仅呈零星分布。表层土壤硒含量在一定程度上继承了成土母质硒的含量,不同的土地利用类型土壤中硒含量也存在一定的差异。土壤有机质含量与硒含量呈显著正相关关系,与土壤pH值没有相关性。花生和水稻富硒率较高,其中花生和早稻含量均符合国家食品安全标准,仅晚稻存在一定的重金属超标现象。通过对比富硒土壤和不富硒土壤中晚稻重金属含量的超标率、硒的富集系数和含量,发现在富硒区晚稻中重金属的超标率远远低于非富硒区,说明土壤硒元素会在一定程度上降低晚稻中重金属元素的富集效应。     

塔中奥陶系储层硫化氢成因及主控因素

塔中奥陶系储层内硫化氢广泛分布,由于其剧毒、易溶于油水中、腐蚀性强,给勘探开发工作带来一定难度。为了弄清奥陶系储层的硫化氢成因及分布规律,在分析现有关储层中H₂S来源研究成果的基础上,结合塔中地区奥陶系碳酸盐岩中的矿物组分、H₂S及其硫碳同位素分析来探讨其H₂S原因。结果表明：三期方解石交代硫酸盐矿物,且硫酸盐未被TSR还原;奥陶系内硫化氢硫同位素普遍比寒武系内硫化氢硫同位素低;奥陶系内硫化氢硫同位素和地层水硫酸根硫同位素具有伴生关系,TSR发生在烃水过渡带;TSR反应物与硫化氢含量无相关关系,并出现了沥青质碳同位素值的负偏;甲烷碳同位素值与硫化氢含量无相关关系,甲烷并未参与TSR。奥陶系与寒武系内硫化氢为不同阶段各自的产物;硫化氢生成时期为奥陶系良里塔格组（O₃l）和鹰山组（O_1-2y）内TSR发生在晚燕山期-喜山期,寒武系内TSR发生在晚海西期和晚燕山期-喜山期。总体上,奥陶系内硫化氢为原地TSR成因,受控于走滑断裂注入寒武系高矿化度、富镁地层水和油气,以及沿I号断裂运移的贫硫化氢干气稀释作用。