On the feasibility of using a lake water balance model to infer rainfall: an example from Lake Victoria

Abstract

A water balance model of Lake Victoria that can be used to assess rainfall from lake level, is derived. The model utilizes satellite estimates of rainfall directly over the lake. The model, initially derived and calibrated for the period 1956–1978, is reformulated here in such a way that all water balance terms except evaporation can be calculated from a combination of catchment rainfall and level of the lake. The reformulated model is validated and used to predict lake level fluctuations during the period 1931–1994. An error analysis is also performed. The model is then “inverted” to solve for mean rainfall conditions during various intervals of changing lake levels. For modern periods with known rainfall conditions, the error in model estimates is of the order of 1%.     

Evolution of scouring process downstream of grade‐control structures under steady and unsteady flows

For many incised channels, one of the most common strategies is to install some hard structures, such as grade‐control structures (GCSs), in the riverbed to resist further incision. In this study, a series of experiments, including both steady and unsteady flow conditions, were conducted to investigate the scouring process downstream of a GCS. Three distinct phases, including the initial, developing and equilibrium phases, during the evolution of scour holes were identified. In addition, a semi‐empirical method was proposed to predict the equilibrium scour‐hole profile for the scour countermeasure design. In general, the comparisons between the experimental and simulated results are reasonably consistent. As the studies on temporal variation of the scour depth at GCSs caused by floods are limited, the effect of flood hydrograph shapes on the scour downstream of GCSs without upstream sediment supply was also investigated experimentally in this study. Based on the dimensional analysis and the concept of superposition, a methodology is proposed to simulate the time evolution of the maximum scour depth downstream of a GCS for steady flows. Moreover, the proposed scheme predicts reasonably well the temporal variations of the maximum scour depth for unsteady flows with both single and multiple peak. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managing coastal area resources by stated choice experiments

In many coastal regions, oil spills can be considered as one of the most important and certainly the most noticeable forms of marine pollution. Efficient contingency management responding to oil spills on waters, which aims at minimizing pollution effects on coastal resources, turns out to be critically important. Such a decision making highly depends on the importance attributed to different coastal economic and ecological resources. Economic uses can, in principal, be addressed by standard measures such as value added. However, there is a missing of market in the real world for natural goods. Coastal resources such as waters and beach cannot be directly measured in money terms, which increases the risk of being neglected in a decision making process. This paper evaluates these natural goods of coastal environment in a hypothetical market by employing stated choice experiments. Oil spill management practice in German North Sea is used as an example. Results from a pilot survey show that during a combat process, beach and eider ducks are of key concerns for households. An environmental friendly combat option has to be a minor cost for households. Moreover, households with less children, higher monthly income and a membership of environmental organization are more likely to state that they are willing to pay for combat option to prevent coastal resources from an oil pollution. Despite that choice experiments require knowledge of designing questionnaire and statistical skills to deal with discrete choices and conducting a survey is time consumed, the results have important implications for oil spill contingency management. Overall, such a stated preference method can offer useful information for decision makers to consider coastal resources into a decision making process and can further contribute to finding a cost-effective oil preventive measure, also has a wide application potential in the field of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM).     

浅析律师角色的社会定位——兼谈律师法对律师权利义务的设计

运用法制给律师一个准确定位是法治社会发展的需要，也是发挥律师作用的重要前提。我国现行律师法将律师定位于为社会提供法律服务的执业人员，对律师职业定位不准确，造成律师社会地位低下，缺乏社会责任感，容易造成律师角色失败。社会需求和价值取向决定着律师角色的社会定位，我国的律师法对律师权利义务的制度设计应成为律师定位和发挥其作用的法律保障。     

山东东营凹陷新生代天文地层表简介

综合山东东营凹陷郝科1等6口井的天文地层研究结果提出"东营凹陷新生代天文地层表",表中列出的是"国际地层表(2004)"、"中国区域年代地层表(2000)"和0—65Ma期间天文偏心率405ka周期编号以及东营凹陷孔店组(顶部)至平原组各组的年龄以及东营凹陷新生代51Ma以来3个大的地层不整合:1)沙河街组二段下部,大约33.8—33.4Ma期间405ka周期振幅不明显、100ka周期较强,与南大西洋33.4—33.7Ma和热带太平洋33.6—33.7Ma期间沉积物中显著转折等特征可作对比;2)东营组-馆陶组界线上下,东营组三角洲顶面最后萎缩时间约为24.467Ma,推测由此至渐新世末(23.03Ma),大约近1.5Myr期间本区没有大的湖泊,而是冲积—河流相沉积,中新世初(23.03Ma)快速隆起,直到约18—16Ma开始馆下段的上部沉积,这一区域性角度不整合面形成大约持续5—7Myr;3)上新统-更新统界线上下,根据本区东辛2-4井古地磁和天文地层研究,测出布容、松山、高斯和吉尔伯特等4个极性时,求出2.546Ma—1.806Ma期间[明上(上)亚段顶]可能沉积并剥蚀过的地层厚度为129m;1.806—0.908Ma期间,因构造活动本区上升成为高山,第四系平一段底部形成了大的不整合面。     

山东济阳坳陷始新统-渐新统天文地层界线年龄分析

山东济阳坳陷沙河街组上部天文地层研究是以牛38井沙三段中亚段顶界年龄34.892Ma作为标定,分析和计算出沙二段下亚段底年龄为33.799Ma、沙段二段上亚段底为33.338Ma、沙一段底为32.940Ma和东营组底为31.829Ma。从天文地层界线年龄分析,沙三段-沙二段界线的年龄大致可对比为"国际地层表(2004)"始新统-渐新统界线年龄33.90Ma,而沙二段下亚段-上亚段界线年龄比国际始新统-渐新统界线的滞后大约600ka。在"中国区域地层表"始新统-渐新统界线年龄(32Ma)和"国际地层表"的始新统-渐新统界线年龄(33.9Ma)之差的1.9Myr,大致相当于本区计算的沙一、二段的持续时间。SP数据的小波分析表明,在沙二段-沙三上亚段界线附近,即约33.8Ma之后,约405ka周期开始变得不明显、不规则,幅度亦下降,剧烈突变发生时间在33.4Ma左右。上述界线对应偏心率周期的理论值突变的时间。因此推论始新世-渐新世转折期是偏心率多个理论周期重迭而导致的一个特殊的时期,也是本区沙二段下亚段这段地层形成不整合面的时间,大约在33.8—33.4Ma期间。     

城市3维地理信息系统中场景的制图输出技术

针对当前城市3维地理信息系统中制图输出精度受帧缓冲大小限制的问题,提出一种内容分块输出、图像自动合并的高分辨率制图输出方法。针对平行投影和透视投影,分别阐述制图输出的技术原理和实现步骤。实践表明,这种制图输出技术不但可以有效地解决3维场景高精度打印输出的难题,还可以为场景效果图的网络发布提供基本的素材。     

北京同步辐射装置准直测量控制网的设计与优化

在北京同步辐射装置升级改造中,为提高元件的安装精度,同时兼顾未来新增光束线的建设需要,在实验大厅建立了准直测量控制网,作为设备定位、调校、安装和变形监测等工作的基础。本文重点介绍该控制网的设计、优化与观测结果分析,特别阐述了激光精密测量技术的应用,以及对点位密度、测量精度及可靠性的控制。     

石屏县土地更新调查的影像解译结果分析

利用2005年SPOT-5高分辨率卫星影像,运用RS、GIS、GPS等新的技术手段,分析、提取了石屏县土地利用变化信息。结果显示,石屏县新的土地控制面积为3 041.37km2,与2004年变更调查统相比较,现有辖区面积增加0.53km2。土地利用类型以农业用地为主,面积达25.40 536×104hm2,占总土地面积的83.53%。通过以高分辨率卫星影像进行更新调查,有效掌握石屏县土地利用状况和动态变化,查清土地利用结构,调整土地供应,有效利用土地资源提供了翔实的基础资料和科学依据。     

利用GRACE数据检测日本Mw9.0地震同震和震后重力变化

基于德国地学中心（GFZ）发布的GRACE RL05月重力场模型数据,考虑全球陆地同化系统陆地水储量的影响,采用300 km的扇形滤波,利用叠积法提取了日本Mw9.0地震的同震和震后重力时变信号,并利用最小二乘拟合的方法计算了两个同震重力变化极值点在地震前后85个月的重力年变率。结果表明：土壤水分和雪水引起的重力变化为-0.34~0.09 μgal;利用GRACE数据检测到的同震重力变化为-5.3~4.2 μgal,与基于PSGRN/PSCMP模型计算的结果在空间分布和量级上具有较好的一致性;震后5 a震中附近区域的重力整体上呈现增加趋势,断层上盘所在的日本海域与下盘所在的太平洋区域重力增加的最大值分别为2.6、4.5 μgal,下盘重力增加较大,可能与断层下盘所在地层的黏滞性相对较低有关。