利用BP神经网络进行水库滑坡变形预测

滑坡变形监测与预测是滑坡预警预报中一种非常重要的途径。文章首先简单介绍了神经网络的基本原理和学习算法,然后利用某水库滑坡24期的GPS地表位移监测数据及其诱发因素即水库水位、降雨等资料,采用BP神经网络模型对该水库滑坡变形进行建模,最后将6期水库水位、降雨等资料输入模型进行滑坡变形预测,结果表明预测结果与实测数据符合性好,总体上能较好反映变形趋势。     

Three-dimensional analysis of ozone and PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> distributions obtained by observations of tethered balloon and unmanned aerial vehicle in Shanghai,China

A lightweight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a tethered balloon platform were jointly used to investigate three-dimensional distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations within the lower troposphere (1000 m) at a localized coastal area in Shanghai, China. Eight tethered balloon soundings and three UAV flights were conducted on May 25, 2016. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to quantitatively describe the relationships between air pollutants and other obtained parameters. Field observations showed that large variations were captured both in the vertical and horizontal distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations. Significant stratified layers of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations as well as wind directions were observed throughout the day. Estimated bulk Richardson numbers indicate that the vertical mixing of air masses within the lower troposphere were heavily suppressed throughout the day, leading to much higher concentrations of ozone and PM_2.5 in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The NO and NO₂ concentrations in the experimental field were much lower than that in the urban area of Shanghai and demonstrated totally different vertical distribution patterns from that of ozone and PM_2.5. This indicates that aged air masses of different sources were transported to the experimental field at different heights. Results derived from the GAMs showed that the aggregate impact of the selected variables for the vertical variations can explain 94.3% of the variance in ozone and 94.5% in PM_2.5. Air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure had the strongest effects on the variations of ozone and PM_2.5. As for the horizontal variations, the GAMs can explain 56.3% of the variance in ozone and 57.6% in PM_2.5. The strongest effect on ozone was related to air temperature, while PM_2.5 was related to relative humidity. The output of GAMs also implied that fine aerosol particles were in the stage of growth in the experimental field, which is different from ozone (aged air parcels of ozone). Geographical parameters influenced the horizontal variations of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations by changing underlying surface types. The differences of thermodynamic properties between land and sea resulted in quick changes of PBL height, air temperature and dew point over the coastal area, which was linked to the extent of vertical mixing at different locations. The results of GAMs can be used to analyze the sources and formation mechanisms of ozone and PM_2.5 pollutions at a localized area.     

新疆准噶尔盆地中侏罗世斯卡布勒果(Scarburgia)一新种

报道在新疆准噶尔盆地白杨河地区中侏罗世西山窑组首次发现的松柏类斯卡布勒果属(Scarburgia)的一个新种—白杨河斯卡布勒果(新种)。新种以果穗附属物(大孢子叶)紧密螺旋状排列、大孢子叶柄以宽角从轴上伸出、卵圆形种鳞的鳞片的顶端上卷、并具一短尖头等特征区别于斯卡布勒果属已知种。由于斯卡布勒果属以往在中国发现较少且时代大多为早白垩世,当前新种的发现是中国侏罗纪斯卡布勒果属化石的新记录。     

沁水盆地南部潘庄区块废弃矿井煤层气地球化学特征及成因

为了研究废弃矿井中煤层气成因,以沁水盆地南部潘庄区块废弃矿井为例,抽采废弃矿井中煤层气并进行化学组分和同位素测试,并采集部分废弃矿井水样品测试水中离子浓度、pH值等进行研究。结果表明：潘庄区块废弃矿井中煤层气CH₄体积分数平均值为91.99%,CO₂为1.26%,N₂为6.73%;甲烷碳同位素（δ¹³C₁）值为-31.36‰~-33.53‰,平均-32.25‰,氢同位素（δD）值为-182.76‰~-193.20‰,平均-187.538‰。废弃矿井排采水中阴阳离子主要为Mg²⁺、K⁺、HCO₃^-、Cl^-、Na⁺、SO₄^2-和NO₃^-等,产出水型为Mg-（HCO₃）₂型,表明矿井水受到地表水的强烈影响。废弃矿井中煤层气主要以热成因气为主,少量次生生物气。与附近未开采煤储层相比,研究区废弃矿井中的环境更有利于次生生物气的生成。     

新疆库车盆地钾盐科探1井含盐系地球化学特征及找钾指示

在盐湖沉积演化过程中,钾盐矿物在盐类沉积的中晚期阶段才开始析出。因此,研究含盐系盐类的沉积地球化学特征,不仅可以从侧面获取岩盐的沉积物源和成盐古卤水蒸发浓缩程度等地球化学信息,而且更能揭示古盐湖钾盐富集趋势。文章通过对库车盆地钾盐科探1井钻取的岩芯样品进行高精度采样测试,得出岩盐中Mg×103/Cl、K×103/Cl、Li×103/Cl与K+、Mg2+、Li+、Ca2+、Cl-含量的垂向变化规律。并与库车盆地其他钻孔中的岩盐含钾性进行对比,同时,依据钻井剖面岩性特征,与潜江凹陷和大汶口凹陷含盐系剖面进行对比,论述研究区成盐的地球化学特征,对其钾盐成矿前景进行分析和评价。     

登州浅滩海域表层沉积物分布特征

依据2010年在登州浅滩海域采集的沉积物样品资料,划分了研究区表层沉积物的分布类型,分析了登州浅滩海域沉积物的分布特征和粒度参数变化规律,在此基础上初步探讨了沉积物分布的影响因素。研究结果表明,登州浅滩海域表层沉积物主要包括砾石、砾砂、粗砂、中粗砂、中砂、细砂、粉砂质砂、砂质粉砂、粉砂、黏土质粉砂、粉砂质黏土等11种类型;浅滩沉积物以中粗砂为主,水道东侧以砾砂为主,西侧主要成分为黏土质粉砂;沉积物粒径具有自南向北由细变粗再变细,自东向西由粗变细的趋势;区域表层沉积物的分布格局与水动力环境相适应。     

旋转大气中运动的多时态特征和时间边界层

一、引言 众所周知,旋转大气中的运动,存在两个在时间尺度和动力学特征上都有明显差别的过程,即适应过程和发展过程。最近,叶笃正、李麦村等进一步指出:在发展过程中,大气运动还具有迅速变化和缓慢变化的两个阶段,对于这种发展过程中的双时态特征,巢纪平从物理上作了进一步的解释。因此,联合适应过程与发展过程,运动至少存在三个时态,事实上,这种多时态特征是旋转流体中运动的一种固有现象,在本文中,我们将对此作进一步的分析与讨论。     

汉阴北部吴家湾金矿地质特征及流体包裹体研究

吴家湾金矿是汉阴北部地区的一个重要的金矿床,处于南秦岭石泉-神河韧性滑脱逆冲推覆带。对其进行野外地质研究发现,吴家湾金矿赋矿层位为梅子垭组第一岩性段第四岩性层（S1m14）,岩性主要为含碳绢云片岩夹硅质岩;控矿构造主要为RFa和RFb 2条顺层韧性剪切带,大致可分辨出S1、S2及S3 3期构造面理,S0几乎全部被置换,S2期变形与金矿成矿关系密切,金矿体主要于该期形成的韧性剪切带中产出。在地质研究基础上,可将吴家湾金矿区石英脉划分为3期,对流体包裹体的研究表明,包裹体类型以气液两相包裹体为主,纯气相、纯液相及三相包裹体较少见;均一温度范围介于176.8~344.4℃,集中于230~280℃。盐度范围为0.35%~13.51%,集中于2%~10%,成矿流体属于中-低温、低盐度流体。流体捕获深度在1.38~3.47 km,集中于1.5~2.8 km,于中浅部成矿。S2期石英脉流与成矿关系紧密,流体包裹体均一温度主要集中在240~280℃,为主成矿期流体。激光拉曼光谱分析表明气液两相包裹体液相成分以H2O为主,含少量CO2和CH4;气相成分主要为CO2,其次为CH4、N2及H2S;包裹体类型主要为富含CO2的H2O-CO2体系包裹体。对汉阴北部不同地区流体包裹体的性质进行对比研究后发现,流体包裹体均一温度为190~260℃,盐度为6%~10%,在这个区间内有利于成矿。     

甘肃玛曲大水金矿田控矿因素及主矿体特征对比分析

大水金矿田由大水、贡北、格尔托3处大、中型金矿床组成,经过30年巨量探矿工程的投入和持续有效的勘查与研究,整体达到了详查程度,累计查明金资源量约130 t,为典型矿床对比研究提供了理想基地。通过大水金矿田赋矿地层岩性、控矿断裂构造、成矿侵入岩等控矿因素的对比分析认为：大水金矿田赋矿地层岩性以中三叠统马热松多组灰岩为主;控矿断裂、成矿容矿脉岩及其所赋存矿体的规模,以大水特大型金矿明显优于贡北、格尔托中型金矿,大水金矿主要以NWW向压扭性主干断裂与近SN向放射状张性断裂的交汇部位控制厚富主矿体,贡北以EW向、格尔托以NNW与NE向断裂的交汇部位控制主矿体的分布;中酸性岩体及其派生的酸性岩脉与金成矿关系密切,容矿花岗闪长岩（斑）岩脉及其蚀变方解石大脉在陡倾断裂破碎带中的集中分布,往往指示厚富金矿体的赋存地段。通过3个矿区主矿体的规模、品位、资源量分布等特征的对比分析可以看出,主矿体的规模、品位以大水较贡北、格尔托为大、为富,大水、贡北、格尔托金矿的主矿体资源量分别占矿区的75. 62%、78. 51%和79. 58%,且由普查到详查,主矿体资源量占比有所变化,如大水金矿由70. 59%增加到75. 63%,贡北金矿则由88. 24%降低为84. 16%。