Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.     

高亚洲地区冰崩灾害的研究进展

在全球气候变化的背景下,冰崩灾害极有可能成为人类面临的新常态。特别是在高亚洲地区,冰崩灾害事件严重威胁"亚洲水塔"的命运和"第三极"的生态安全。因此,研究冰崩灾害事件对于保障"一带一路"国家战略的顺利实施和保护"一带一路"沿线国家的生产与生存环境具有重要的现实意义。通过梳理历史上有记录的几次冰崩灾害事件,系统介绍冰崩的发生过程;再从冰崩体的物质组成、冰崩体的运动特征、冰崩发生的可能原因以及冰崩的影响等方面总结了冰崩的研究内容;重点阐述了冰崩的研究方法;最后讨论了当前冰崩研究存在的问题,并从冰崩研究方法等角度展望了未来冰崩灾害事件的研究方向。     

内蒙古克什克腾旗哲斯组沉积学和年代学研究及其古地理意义

为了重建西拉木伦河北部晚古生代沉积古地理格局并探讨古亚洲洋的闭合过程,本研究对克什克腾旗西部的哲斯组地层进行了详细的沉积环境与沉积相分析、锆石U-Pb年代学研究。来自哲斯组的凝灰质砂岩与安山岩样品的最年轻锆石组的谐和年龄为262±1Ma和258±17Ma,限定研究区内地层沉积下限为中晚二叠世。前人认为哲斯组地层为深海环境下的浊流沉积,本文研究表明哲斯组以近源快速堆积、快速沉降为特征,沉积环境为三角洲前缘相与前三角洲相的多次交替,同时受到火山活动的影响。通过详细的沉积岩野外剖面观察,区内地层并没有发现以单调的递变层理为特征的连续鲍马序列层序,而是出现从砂岩到粉砂岩或泥岩的不规则截然互层层序,并与巨厚层的滑塌堆积交替发育,表明研究区中二叠世古地理格局并不具备深海浊积扇的发育条件,也暗示中二叠世不存在向南发育的广阔大陆边缘;另一方面,结合古流向恢复和物源分析,哲斯组的沉积物应主要来自于南部的华北克拉通以及南造山带陆缘弧,说明研究区在中二叠世已与华北板块连通,并没有类似大洋俯冲带的阻隔作用。因此,研究区中二叠世古地理格局并不具备深海远源浊积扇的发育条件,而是处于近源快速堆积的伸展环境,中二叠世既不存在向南发育的广阔大陆边缘,也不存在代表板块边界的俯冲带。     

长春地区粉质黏土导热系数与其物性参数相关性研究

为研究导热系数与影响因素之间的相关关系,建立导热系数的推算公式,以长春地区粉质黏土为研究对象,对原状土样的导热系数与其物理参数之间的相关性进行回归分析。制作9个重塑土样,测其相关的参数值,以验证回归方程的适用性。结果表明,回归分析建立导热系数与2个物理参数之间的关系式不成立;考虑天然密度、含水率和孔隙度为自变量,其分别对应的相关性系数T检验显著值(Sig)都0. 05,复决定系数为0. 886,建立的回归方程成立,自变量能准确解释因变量的变化,且含水率与导热系数呈负相关,天然密度和孔隙度呈正相关。重塑土样相关参数代入回归方程得到的导热系数值与实验实测值之间相对误差低于4%,验证了该回归方程的普遍性和适用性。     

内蒙古翁公敖包航磁异常的推断与解释

文章对内蒙古四子王旗—土默特右旗中北部近年发现的翁公敖包航磁异常进行推断与解释,在对找矿有望的航磁异常进行筛选后,对翁公敖包航磁异常进行了野外地质-地球物理查证,确定异常为铁矿所致;采用向上延拓、垂向导数、斜导数及小波变换等方法对航磁异常进行数据转换处理,以获取铁矿体的横向及纵向分布信息,取得了较好的效果。     

Geochronology,Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of the Pungco Ophiolite,TibetEI北大核心CSCD

Although the middle section of the Bangong-Nujiang suture zone has been intensively investigated, its tectonic framework and evolution is still controversy. The Pungco ophiolite has a relative complete ophiolitic complex, which is an ideal specimen for studying this tricky problem. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of zircons from the diabasic rock yielded an age of 159.0±2.1 Ma. This age suggests that the Pungco ophiolite was formed in the Late Jurassic, indicating the development of the Late Jurassic ophiolite in the third ophiolitic subzone. The whole-rock major and trace element compositions of diabasic and basaltic rocks exhibit mixed arc and N-MORB geochemical characteristics. Two diabasic samples have (87Sr/86Sr)i values of 0.7055 and 0.7063 and εNd(t) values of 11.28 and 11.84, respectively. The geochemical signatures and formation age of the Pungco ophiolite suggest that this ophiolite was probably produced in an active continental fore-arc setting. It originated from a N-MORB-like depleted mantle source with the involvement of subducted-slab fluids. Considering the regional geological background, the Pungco ophiolite was likely generated during the southward subduction of the Bangong-Nujiang Tethyan oceanic lithosphere beneath the Lhasa terrane, and belongs to a regional archipelagic arc-basin system together with the other Early Jurassic-Early Cretaceous ophiolites from the northern Tibet Lake district. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Three Kinds of Flash Droughts over Agricultural Land in China from 1983 to 2015

At present, flash drought occurs globally and regionally and causes a lot of socio-economic loss in a very short time. Therefore, flash drought has been regarded as one of the hottest issues in drought research. However, flash drought monitoring, prediction and decision-making have encountered a lot of challenges due to its multiple driven factors and complex spatio-temporal process. Aiming at this problem, this paper focused on the agricultural land in China, and analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of three kinds of flash droughts (i.e., precipitation-deficit, high-temperature, and composite flash droughts) from 1983 to 2015. We studied the occurrences, duration, spatial distribution, temporal distribution, and trend of all three kinds of flash droughts. Our results demonstrated that, the occurrences of flash drought agricultural land in China increased year by year, among which high-temperature flash drought increased dramatically; duration of flash droughts had different trends, but the variations were relatively smooth; Northeast China was identified as a vulnerable area of flash drought, indicating more flash drought events and longer duration; flash droughts in China were found to concentrate in spring (high-temperature drought) and summer seasons (precipitation-deficit drought). This study is helpful for building new flash drought monitoring method and system, and it is also valuable for flash drought preparedness on regional scale.     

两方程湍流模型对内背风波数值模拟的影响

为了深入理解非静力近似下的波-湍相互作用问题,本研究在σ坐标的海洋环境研究和预报模型(MERF)中引入常用的Mellor-Yamada两方程湍混合参数化方案(MY2.5),评估垂向湍混合对小尺度背风波传播过程的影响.瞬时状态场的模拟结果表明,无论是否为非静力近似条件,上述湍参数化方案的引入都会减弱背风波传播的模拟效果.从时间平均场的试验结果来看,垂向湍混合过程会显著减小非静力近似和静力近似之间的差异.此外,能量收支分析的诊断结果表明,MY2.5方案会显著抑制陆坡地形下的背风波传播过程,进而将更多的潮能转化到不可逆的湍混合过程中.     

观测分析El Ni?o衰减早晚对南亚与青藏高原夏季降水和气温的影响

El Ni?o（厄尔尼诺）事件对东亚和南亚次年夏季降水影响及其机理已经得到充分研究,但其对夏季青藏高原降水是否有显著影响还不清楚。本研究根据1950年后El Ni?o事件次年衰减期演变速度,对比分析衰减早型与晚型El Ni?o事件对南亚季风区与青藏高原夏季（6～9月）季节平均和月平均气候影响差异。结果显示在衰减早型次年夏季热带太平洋海温转为La Ni?a（拉尼娜）型且持续发展,引起Walker环流上升支西移,印度洋和南亚季风区上升运动加强,同时激发异常西北太平洋反气旋（NWPAC）,阿拉伯海异常气旋和伊朗高原异常反气旋性环流响应,增加7～9月对流层偏南气流和印度洋水汽输送,导致南亚和高原西南侧降水偏多。衰减晚型次年6～8月热带太平洋El Ni?o型海温仍维持,印度洋暖异常海温显著,对应的印度洋和南亚季风区上升运动较弱,NWPAC西伸控制南亚季风区,阿拉伯海和中西亚分别呈现异常反气旋和气旋性环流,导致青藏高原西风加强,水汽输送减少,南亚北部和高原降水一致偏少。结果表明:（1）El Ni?o显著影响次年青藏高原西南部夏季季节和月平均降水与温度,是印度和高原西南部夏季降水显著相关的重要原因;（2）El Ni?o衰减快慢速度对南亚和青藏高原西南部夏季季节内降水的影响有着重要差异。     

Intercomparison of CRA-Interim Precipitation Products with ERA5 and JRA-55

By using the hourly data from surface meteorological stations in China, the 3-hour precipitation data from CRA-Interim (Chinese Reanalysis-Interim), ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis 5) and JRA-55 (Japanese Reanalysis-55) are compared, both on the spatial-temporal distributions and on bias with observation precipitation in China. The results show that: (1) The three sets of reanalysis datasets can all reflect the basic spatial distribution characteristics of annual average precipitation in China. The simulation of topographic forced precipitation in complex terrain by CRA-interim is more detailed, while CRA-interim has larger negative bias in central and East China, and larger positive bias in southwest China. (2) In terms of seasonal precipitation, the three sets of reanalysis datasets overestimate the precipitation in the heavy rainfall zone of spring and summer, especially in southwest China. CRA interim’s location of the rain belt in the First Rainy Season in South China is west by south, the summer precipitation has positive bias in southwest and South China. (3) All of the reanalysis datasets can basically reflect the distribution difference of inter-annual variation of drought and flood, but the overall the CRA-Interim generally shows negative bias, while the ERA5 and JRA-55 exhibit positive bias. (4) For the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer, all the reanalysis datasets perform better in simulating the daytime precipitation than in the night, and bias of CRA-interim is less in southeast and northeast than elsewhere. (5) ERA5 generally performs the best on the evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast, the JRA-55 is the next, followed by the CRA-Interim. CRA-Interim has higher missing rate and lower threat score for heavy rains; however, at the level of downpour, the CRA-Interim performs slightly better.