Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Theoretical Model and Dynamic Analysis of Soft Yoke Mooring System

As a popular solution for mooring an FPSO （Floating Production, Storage and Offloading） permanently in shallow water, the soft yoke mooring system has been widely used in ocean oil production activities in the Bohai Bay of China. In order to simulate the interaction mechanism and conduct dynamic analysis of the soft yoke mooring system, a theoretical model with basic dynamic equations is established. A numerical iteration algorithm based on error estimation is developed to solve the equations and calculate the dynanfic response of the mooring system due to FPSO motions. Validation is conducted by wave basin experimentation. It is shown that the numerical simulation takes only a few iteration times and the final errors are small. Furthermore, the calculated results of both the static and dynamic responses agree well with those ones obtained by the model test. It indicates that the efficiency, the precision, the reliability and the validity of the developed numerical algorithm and program are rather good. It is proposed to develop a real-time monitoring system to further monitor the dynamic performance of the FPSO with a soft yoke mooring system under various real sea environments.     

KCl对方斑东风螺浮游幼虫变态的诱导作用

报道了KCl对方斑东风螺(Babylonia aerolatoLink)浮游幼虫变态的诱导作用。结果表明,在水体200 mL,幼虫20只,KCl连续作用12 h的条件下,当KCl浓度不超过8×10-3mol/L且幼虫日龄小于12 d时,诱导变态率为0~15%,诱导效果不稳定;当KCl浓度达到11×10-3mol/L且幼虫日龄达到15 d时,浮游幼虫变态率超过95%。在水体850 L,幼虫2.0×105~2.5×105只,KCl连续作用9 h的条件下,KCl浓度为17×10-3mol/L,日龄15 d的幼虫变态率达90%。浮游幼虫日龄越大,KCl添加浓度越高,作用时间越长,KCl诱导变态作用越明显。KCl对方斑东风螺幼虫有毒性作用,日龄越小,浓度越大,作用时间越长,毒性越大。日龄12 d的浮游幼虫,KCl添加浓度11×10-3mol/L作用20 h诱导变态的稚螺,未发现其生长和存活受到KCl的不良影响。综合本实验的结果,KCl诱导变态较为安全有效的条件是:浮游幼虫日龄不小于15 d,添加浓度11×10-3~14×10-3mol/L,作用时间不超过12 h。     

准噶尔盆地中部Ⅲ区块原油甾烷异常分布特征与成因

对准噶尔盆地中部Ⅲ区块的3类原油或油砂样品抽提物饱和烃进行了气相色谱-质谱分析,研究了原油饱和烃中甾烷类化合物的分布特征,并对其成因做了初步探讨。结果表明：3类原油的甾烷分布特征具有一定的相似性,C27规则甾烷相对丰度明显低于C28、C29;C27、C28、C29异构体αββ型相对丰度明显高于ααα型（C28αββ（20S）或C29αββ（20R）丰度最高）;但这3类原油的成因是不一致的,其影响因素主要包括热演化、生物降解、运移分馏以及古环境或岩性4个方面,其中第1、3类原油主要以热演化作用与运移作用为主,第1类原油还可能受到古环境或岩性影响,两者均不受生物降解的影响,第2类原油则受到热演化、运移作用及生物降解的共同影响。     

不同填充方法色谱柱分离原油及沥青砂岩抽提物的饱和烃地球化学特征

采用柱色谱分离方法,分别以氧化铝（5g）、上部为氧化铝下部为硅胶（3g：2g）、上部为硅胶下部为氧化铝（3g：2g）和硅胶（5g）4种填充方法对原油和沥青砂岩抽提物进行族组成分析,对其饱和烃馏分进行气相色谱-质谱分析,对比剖析了饱和烃生物标志物组成特征。结果表明：这4种不同的填充方法对类异戊间二烯型烷烃、藿烷、规则甾烷等生物标志物的分子组成影响一般均较小,但对于高碳数正构烷烃和重排甾烷等化合物的影响则较明显。     

GPS双频相位平滑伪距在卫星预报钟差精度评定中的应用

利用Hatch滤波对双频消电离层组合伪距观测值进行相位平滑讨论,对原Hatch滤波公式中的定权方法进行了改进.在此基础上,利用伪距与星地距比对法对广播星历中卫星预报钟差精度评定进行了研究.计算结果表明:载波相位平滑能有效地提高伪距观测量的精度,从而提高伪距与星地距比对法评估卫星预报钟差的可行性.利用双频消电离层相位平滑伪距计算的卫星钟差精度优于1 ns(1σ),测定的卫星钟差与实际卫星钟差不存在系统差.     

变形观测数据时间序列建模中的几个问题

针对在变形观测数据时间序列建模中所遇到的问题,对变形观测数据时间序列建模中的数据预处理、模型选择、模型定阶与系统稳定性检验等问题进行了研究,提出了分析数据趋势项提取的AR模型方法,编写了C语言计算程序,实现了样条函数插值方法、周期项提取的差值法,建立ARMA分析模型,对变形预测数据与实际观测数据进行了比较.结果表明:该方法的正确性以及时间序列分析方法在变形数据处理与分析中的适用性与可行性.     

二长棘鲷和黄鳍鲷骨骼系统的比较

对二长棘鲷和黄鳍鲷的骨骼系统进行了比较研究。结果表明,二长棘鲷脑颅中的上筛骨、侧筛骨、额骨、眶下骨、蝶耳骨、上枕骨,咽颅中的前上额骨、腭骨、舌额骨、齿骨、鳃盖骨、尾舌骨、咽鳃骨等与黄鳍鲷相应部分的骨骼有明显差异,某些特征可作属间或种间的鉴别依据。     

3-甲基胆蒽对斑马鱼组织病理效应的初步研究

分别用25、50、100、200和400μg/L的3-甲基胆蒽(3-MC)对斑马鱼进行水浴染毒,于第7天和第14天采集各染毒组和对照组活鱼的肝、鳃、心、肠和肾,进行病理组织学检查。结果发现,一定剂量的3-MC能导致肝细胞变性,胞浆内出现脂肪滴,严重时肝细胞坏死解体,界限模糊;心肌细胞萎缩坏死;肠粘膜上皮细胞纹状缘不整齐,有的脱落;鳃丝结构异常,鳃小片表面粗糙,上皮细胞不完整;肾小管上皮细胞肿胀,细胞界限不清,管腔内均质红染。供试斑马鱼的病理组织变化与3-MC的作用剂量和作用时间存在一定的关系。