Influence of Springtime Atlantic SST on ENSO:Role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Increased evidence has shown the important role of Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) in modulating the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Persistent anomalies of summer Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) act to link the Atlantic SST anomalies(SSTAs) to ENSO. The Atlantic SSTAs are strongly correlated with the persistent anomalies of summer MJO, and possibly affect MJO in two major ways. One is that an anomalous cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation appears over the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with positive(negative) SSTA in spring, and it intensifies(weakens) the Walker circulation. Equatorial updraft anomaly then appears over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean, intensifying MJO activity over these regions. The other involves a high pressure(low pressure) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic SSTA tripole pattern that is transmitted to the mid-and low-latitudes by a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, leading to strong(weak) convective activity of MJO over the Indian Ocean. The above results offer new viewpoints about the process from springtime Atlantic SSTA signals to summertime atmospheric oscillation, and then to the MJO of tropical atmosphere affecting wintertime Pacific ENSO events, which connects different oceans.     

地震灾害情景下产业空间网络风险评估——以日本丰田汽车为例

以日本东南海地震为情景,以日本丰田汽车及其关联企业为例,基于工厂个体数据及其部件供应的拓扑和空间网络,模拟灾害风险在产业网络中扩散转移过程,建立直接损失与间接功能损失的评估模型,为产业空间网络风险评估提供新的思路和方法借鉴。结果表明：在东南海地震情景下,丰田汽车约48.1%的工厂将直接受损,其中生产设施损失约5587亿日元,厂房建筑损失约1980亿日元。由于关键工厂受损,将间接导致整个产业网络中断。在最长37日恢复情景下,将造成约9230亿日元的间接功能损失。地震灾害对丰田汽车产业网络影响显著,有必要采取有效措施进行减灾降险。     

贵州洞穴空间格局及影响因素分析

以贵州水文地质图和地形图为基础,利用ArcGIS对境内近5000个洞穴洞口海拔、经纬度提取及所在地层、岩性、水系、构造划分,并运用最邻近指数、空间分析与耦合分析处理,研究了贵州全省4960个洞穴的分布特征,探讨了洞穴空间格局与地理要素之间的关系。通过对贵州洞穴进行点格局分析,得出最近邻指数为0.53,泰森多边形检验其变异系数达72.469%,符合凝聚分布模式;并采用点密度函数将全省洞穴划分为4个集聚区和1个弱影响区,即遵义—铜仁强影响区、毕节强影响区、黔西南—六盘水强影响区、贵阳—安顺—黔南强影响区和黔东南弱影响区。其中贵阳—安顺—黔南强影响区是洞穴最主要的分布区,占全省洞穴总量的36.63%,该影响区面积占全省面积的24.67%。贵州洞穴分布呈西密东疏的分布特征,形成明显的“片状”格局。在其研究背景下,地层、岩性、构造、气候、水文、海拔等因素主要制约洞穴的分布、数量、空间格局及其发育。     

贵州绥阳阴河洞洞穴壶穴的演化过程

通过对贵州绥阳寒武系中上统娄山关组中发育洞穴之阴河洞地下河河床基岩面上49个壶穴进行详细测量和统计学定量分析,对其形态特征及空间分布进行描述,并探讨其形成演化过程和影响因素。主要结论为：阴河洞壶穴的整体形态以极浅的倒“Ω”型和“锅”型壶穴为主,并且壶穴发育相对较年轻;壶穴长短轴具有一定的相关性,但平均口径与深度的相关性较差,说明壶穴在发育的过程在洪水期以口径增大为主,枯水期以溶蚀深度加深为主,且表现为地下河河床下切的形式之一;从发育阶段看,阴河洞壶穴的形成演化主要分为3个阶段：“碟型”壶穴形成阶段;倒“Ω”型壶穴发育阶段;“锅”型壶穴发育阶段,其形成主要受水动力条件、构造条件、推移质、基岩性质和溶蚀作用等因素耦合的作用;洞穴壶穴主要是流水的侵—溶蚀作用形成的,并非冰川作用的结果,与“冰臼”的发育存在本质上的区别。     

基于灰色关联度的AHP权重矩阵构建方法改进及在农地评价中的应用

合理确定评价指标的权重是准确测度农业土地资源可持续利用能力的关键所在。本文依据灰色关联度对层次分析法(AHP)中判断矩阵的构建方法进行了改进,并获取各项评价指标的权重。在此基础上,分别采用多目标线性加权函数综合评价模型和障碍因子诊断模型,对2001-2012年湖北省枣阳市的农业土地资源可持续利用水平及其制约因素进行评估和辨析。结果显示：基于灰色关联分析法(GRA)改进后的AHP方法在确定指标权重时不仅能有效降低主观赋权的影响,也可避免熵值法等客观赋权法所存在的弊端;地均农业生产总值、人均耕地面积、化肥使用强度、有效灌溉面积、年降水量、人均GDP和农村居民家庭人均纯收入是制约枣阳市农业土地资源可持续利用的最主要因素,但在不同年份各因素的阻碍度表现不一。2001年以来,枣阳市农业土地资源利用的社会经济可持续性水平较高,综合可持续利用水平指数整体上呈增加的态势;但在生态可持续方面,2006年之后不仅明显低于之前年份,而且也显著低于同时期的社会经济可持续性。     

流动卫星激光测距技术在中国的发展

SLR(卫星激光测距)技术是一项应用广泛的空间大地测量技术,本文在介绍其测距原理的基础上,通过与GPS、VLBI技术进行对比,分析了其实现手段和所能达到的精度;根据SLR应用现状提出了在国内建立SLR流动站的思路;并对SLR技术的未来发展作了展望。     

基于GRACE-FO的微波与激光星间测距数据的重力场模型对比分析

为分析GRACE-FO微波测距系统KBR及激光干涉测距系统LRI对时变重力场结果的影响,以动力学方法为基础,分别采用KBR数据和LRI数据反演2019-01~2021-08的90阶无约束时变重力场模型APM_KBR和APM_LRI,并进行对比分析。 从重力场模型阶方差和等效水柱高的空间分布来看,在两类测距数据完整且质量较好的前提下,两者精度处于同一水平,而当发生较多月卫星机动或其他卫星事件时会使LRI数据缺失,从而导致APM_LRI模型在该月得到的等效水柱高时间序列信噪比略低。由后验残差结果可知,APM_LRI后验残差RMS比APM_KBR减少约50%,且在高频处(大于等于60 CPR)LRI的后验残差显著低于KBR。总体来说,在现有条件下,由于背景场模型等其他因素影响,两类测距数据反演重力场的阶方差和等效水柱高结果基本一致,但后验残差上LRI测距具有更低的噪声。因此,未来可直接使用LRI测距数据探测、分析较弱的地球物理信号。     

Production of Pacific White Shrimp Polycultured with Swimming Crab at Different Densities,and Nutrient Budget in the Enclosure System

This study was to evaluate the effect of stocking densities on the nitrogen and phosphorus budgets for a polyculture of the crab Portunus trituberculatus and the Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei.The shrimps(initial weight,0.012 g)were cultured at a density of 45 shrimp m^-2,and juvenile crabs(initial weight,0.024 g)were cultured at five densities of 0,3,6,9,and 12 crabs m^-2.The treatments were grouped as C0S45,C3S45,C6S45,C9S45,and C12S45,respectively.Water quality parameters,growth of shrimp and crabs,and nitrogen and phosphorus budget were measured.The results indicated that the shrimp performances in polyculture treatments C3S45 and C6S45 were superior to those in the crab-free treatment(C0S45).The crab in treatments C3S45 and C6S45 exhibited a significantly higher final mean weight and carapace width/length than those in treatments C9S45 and C12S45.The final size and survival of crabs had a negative correlation with the increasing crab stocking density.The contents of total phos-phorus and total nitrogen and the comprehensive contamination index values were higher in the C9S45 and C12S45 treatments than in the other treatments.The conversion ratios of nitrogen for crab and shrimp growth in treatment C3S45 were significantly higher than those in the crab-free treatment.These findings indicate that polyculturing shrimp with crabs at suitable densities can improve productivity,profitability,nutrient utilization,and the environmental quality.From the 60-day treatments,the optimal culture densi-ties were 3-6 crabs m^-2 and 45 shrimps m^-2.     

新疆旅游客源市场分析及旅游业可持续发展

分析了新疆历年旅游业发展状况,国际国内旅游客源市场特点,新疆旅游业发展态势及新疆旅游业发展存在的问题,提出新疆旅游业持续发展目标及其实施措施。     

A New Method of Significance Testing for Correlation-Coefficient Fields and Its Application

Correlation-coefficient fields are widely used in short-term climate prediction research. The most frequently used significance test method for the correlation-coefficient field was proposed by Livezey, in which the number of significantcorrelation lattice(station) points on the correlation coherence map is used as the statistic. However, the method is based on two assumptions:(1) the spatial distribution of the lattice(station) points is uniform;and(2) there is no correlation between the physical quantities in the correlation-coefficient field. However, in reality, the above two assumptions are not valid.Therefore, we designed a more reasonable method for significance testing of the correlation-coefficient field. Specifically, a new statistic, the significant-correlation area, is introduced to eliminate the inhomogeneity of the grid(station)-point distribution, and an empirical Monte Carlo method is employed to eliminate the spatial correlation of the matrix.Subsequently, the new significance test was used for simultaneous correlation-coefficient fields between intensities of the atmospheric activity center in the Northern Hemisphere and temperature/precipitation in China. The results show that the new method is more reasonable than the Livezey method.