SWAN雷达产品在甘肃河东地区冰雹短临预报中的应用

选取2011年7月发生在甘肃省河东地区的7次冰雹个例,综合分析SWAN系统输出的雷达产品资料的主要特征,提取冰雹天气的雷达产品资料的指标,根据这些指标利用SWAN系统外推算法资料生成冰雹临近预报产品。通过2012年甘肃河东地区的2次冰雹天气过程对与其同时的临近预报产品检验结果表明,预报效果良好,具有较高的业务应用价值。     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WINTERTIME THERMAL CONTRAST OVER THE ASIAN CONTINENT AND THE CLIMATE IN CHINA

Recent studies indicated that except for the land-sea thermal contrast,there also existed the land-land thermal contrast.The composite analysis and t-test method are used to further study the local thermal contrast variation over the Asian continent,and to discuss the association of seasonal variation of land thermal state with circulation over East Asia,the early summer and summer monsoon activity,and the precipitation anomaly in China in the decadal scale.Results show that the positive meridional temperature anomaly transports downward from upper tropospheric layers in middle-high latitudes north of 25°N in the positive years.In the zonal direction,the Tibetan Plateau heating in the successive spring acts as a force to influence the atmosphere,leading to the rapid temperature warming over eastern Chinese continent,which could increase the land-sea thermal contrast with the negative SSTA.Accordingly,the monsoon activity in early summer over East Asian establishes earlier and the summer monsoon intensity becomes stronger.The early summer precipitation is more-than-normal over the Yangtze River,and the summer precipitation is more-than-normal over the north China and the southwest China.The situation is contrary in the negative years.     

夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷预测模型研究

利用2009-2010年湖北电网日用电负荷资料和气象资料,提出了基于电网负荷的分解算法,将电网日最大负荷分解为基础负荷与气象敏感负荷2个主要分量.其中,气象敏感负荷与气温、相对湿度及风速的综合气象敏感负荷条件指数相关.提出了基于权重指数的湖北省面平均气象敏感负荷条件指数的算法.利用相关比法,分析了湖北省气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的非线性关系.基于均方偏差最小原理和非线性最小二乘法,建立了夏季湖北电网气象敏感负荷与面均气象敏感负荷条件指数的多项式预测关系模型.经2010年9月模型应用检验表明,预测平均误差低于6％.该模型可用于夏季湖北省电力专业气象服务工作.     

Statistical downscaling of summer temperature extremes in northern China

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downscale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross-validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downscaling to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011-35 relative to 1980-99.     

浙江中部芙蓉山花岗斑岩及包体岩石地球化学研究

花岗岩的源区、温压条件及与其他岩石的共生组合的研究可以限定其形成构造背景,了解其形成的深部动力学过程.本文对浙江中部中生代芙蓉山花岗斑岩及其暗色包体开展了全岩主微量元素、锆石U-Pb年代学和Hf同位素、Ti温度计和全岩Sr—Nd同位素研究,探讨芙蓉山花岗斑岩的成因类型、源区特征及其与镁铁质包体之间的关系,并进一步限定其...     

粒子群神经网络及其在非线性系统辨识中的应用

介绍了一种新的神经网络权值优化算法——粒子群优（Particle Swarm Optimization，PSO）算法，提出了用粒子群神经网络对非线性系统进行系统辨识的构思。仿真实验结果表明，粒子群算法具有比BP算法更强的非线性系统辨识能力和更好的泛化能力。     

上海天文台CHAMP掩星资料处理结果的统计分析

随着GPS全球定位系统的发展,已经有可能使用GPS掩星技术反演精确的大气温度,压强和湿度剖面．在概要地描述上海天文台(SHAO)开发的GPS掩星数据资料反演地球大气流程模块以后,分析了2002年8月1日至2002年8月17日期间2700多次CHAMP掩星数据资料的结果,并且与欧洲中尺度天气预报分析(ECMWF)资料进行比较和统计分析,讨论了CHAMP掩星数据的质量,并分析了CHAMP掩星数据的观测误差和ECMWF的分析模型误差．提出了一种优化的统计分析方法,它能更客观地反映GPS掩星技术的外部符合．统计分析结果表明GPS掩星数据将有可能成为数值天气预报和长期监测地球气候的非常有价值的数据资料．     

滕州泉上煤矿碳酸盐岩富水性及对煤层开采的影响

通过滕县煤田(南部)泉上煤矿井下实际揭露及钻孔资料,分析研究了十下灰岩、奥灰富水性特征及石炭二叠纪月门沟群对太原组16,17煤层开采的影响,认为在开采16煤层时,必须遵循“深部疏水降压,浅部采煤”的方针;在开采17煤层时,正常情况下不会受到奥灰水的威协;在井巷开拓过程中必须慎重对待十二灰,应先查明十二灰与奥灰的关系,防止奥灰底鼓水危害。     

领导团体腐败和作弊的社会经济影响：数量特征与客观评价

20世纪90年代以来,我国因领导团体作弊型腐败造成的经济和消费者福利损失迅速增加,其根本原因是行政权力对经济与市场的管制和干预,租金的来源主要是由政府控制引起的“公共区域”。学者们对我国租金价值计算表明,我国租金的绝对量有扩大的趋势,租金结构也发生了相应的变化。随着国家对经济活动管制的减少,租金的比例有降低的趋势。领导团体作弊型腐败不但扭曲了政府决策的合理性,并产生了严重的负外部性,且可能导致政府管理的失败,降低资源配置的效率和阻滞了国家的经济增长,最终影响到社会的稳定。官员腐败和作弊产生于制度的漏洞或不完善。制约与解决的有效手段是寻找能够适应生产力发展要求的新的制度安排。     

Diagenetic Sequences Analysis of Fuyu Reservoir in Qijia - Gulong Depression, Northern Songliao Basin

Five paragenetic associations are recognized in Fuyu reservoir of Qijia - gulong depression of Daqing oil field: 1 )detrital illite permeation, glauconite and pyrite precipitation; 2 ) feldspar dissolution, kaolinite precipitation and the incipient quartz overgrowths; 3 ) early calcite cements; 4 ) postdate quartz overgrowths and pore - filling quartz, authigenetic illite and chlorite formation, feldspar overgrowths, petroleum injections, K - feldspar and calcite cement dissolution; 5) pore - filling calcite and calcite replacement.