“Site & region-specific” response spectra: a probabilistic approach

Design seismic forces depend on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values and on the shape of Response Spectrum (RS) curves dictated by Building Codes or which need to be evaluated in every particular case. The PGA values and RS curves strictly depend on earthquake magnitude and distance, as well as on the regional and local geological conditions. At present, there is no doubt that it is necessary to construct so-called “Site & Region-specific” Building Code provisions reflecting the influence of different magnitude events at different distances that may occur during the life time of the construction, as well as the variety of local ground conditions. A scheme of Uniform Hazard Response Spectra and PGA estimation considering local site response is described in this paper. The assessments of these design parameters are obtained on the basis of Uniform Hazard Fourier spectra using the conception of “dominant earthquakes”. The effect of local geology is included by means of the soil/reference site spectral ratios.     

Tsunamis Generated by Subaquatic Volcanic Explosions: Unique Data from 1996 Eruption in Karymskoye Lake, Kamchatka, Russia

—The 1996 subaquatic explosive eruption near the northern shore of Karymskoye Lake in Kamchatka, Russia, generated multiple tsunamis. We document the explosive process that produced the tsunamis, and describe the tsunami effects and runup around the 4-km diameter lake. These data enable the determination of an attenuation relation of runup (wave) height for these “explosive” tsunamis, which is compared with theoretical models of wave height distributions. For the proximal zone, involving radial distances (r) up to 1.3 km from the source, the runup height (R) shows rapid attenuation (from > 30 m to 8 m) with distance as log R = ?1.98 log[r] + 2.6. For the distal zone, r > 1.3 km, involving mainly wave travel southeastwards along the body of the lake away from the explosion source, R decays more slowly (from 8 m to 3 m) as log R = ?0.56 log[r] + 1.9. Rapid decay in the proximal zone suggests that near the source of the explosion, the tsunami propagated radially as a collapsing wave (bore) with discontinuous change in height. The break-in-slope of the runup plot at 1.3 km suggests that beyond this distance the tsunami propagated approximately as a decaying one-dimensional wave in a channel of approximately constant width.     

Levels of organochlorine pesticide residues in some organs of the Ganges perch, Lates calcarifer, from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Estuary, Bangladesh

Levels of organochlorine pesticide residues (p,p′ DDT, DDD, DDE, Aldrin, Dieldrin, Lindane, Heptachlor and BHC) were analysed in the dry and wet seasons in four organs (muscle, liver, gut and egg samples) of Ganges Perch, Lates calcarifer, collected during October–November–December, 1996 and May–June–July, 1997 from the Ganges–Brahmaputtra–Meghna estuary. The residues were analysed by using gas-chromatography (GC) in electron capture detector (ECD) mode and were verified by thin layer chromatography (TLC). Among the four organs analysed, the residues were found in the order egg > gut > muscle > liver. The pesticide residues were found in the order ∑DDT > Heptachlor >Dieldrin > Aldrin. Higher levels of residues were found during the dry season due to high lipid content in fishes. A positive correlation was observed between the pesticide residues (∑DDT and ∑OCs) and lipid contents of fish, and the correlation was found to be linear. The concentrations of pesticide residues in muscle, liver and gut were below the FAO/WHO (1993) recommended permissible limit except in eggs.     

Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicity Patterns on Earthquake Faults

—Observational studies indicate that large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by phases of accelerated seismic release (ASR) characterized by cumulative Benioff strain following a power law time-to-failure relation with a term (t _f?t) ^m , where t _f is the failure time of the large event and observed values of m are close to 0.3. We discuss properties of ASR and related aspects of seismicity patterns associated with several theoretical frameworks. The subcritical crack growth approach developed to describe deformation on a crack prior to the occurrence of dynamic rupture predicts great variability and low asymptotic values of the exponent m that are not compatible with observed ASR phases. Statistical physics studies assuming that system-size failures in a deforming region correspond to critical phase transitions predict establishment of long-range correlations of dynamic variables and power-law statistics before large events. Using stress and earthquake histories simulated by the model of Ben-Zion (1996) for a discrete fault with quenched heterogeneities in a 3-D elastic half space, we show that large model earthquakes are associated with nonrepeating cyclical establishment and destruction of long-range stress correlations, accompanied by nonstationary cumulative Benioff strain release. We then analyze results associated with a regional lithospheric model consisting of a seismogenic upper crust governed by the damage rheology of Lyakhovsky et al. (1997) over a viscoelastic substrate. We demonstrate analytically for a simplified 1-D case that the employed damage rheology leads to a singular power-law equation for strain proportional to (t _f?t)^?1/3, and a nonsingular power-law relation for cumulative Benioff strain proportional to (t _f?t)^1/3. A simple approximate generalization of the latter for regional cumulative Benioff strain is obtained by adding to the result a linear function of time representing a stationary background release. To go beyond the analytical expectations, we examine results generated by various realizations of the regional lithospheric model producing seismicity following the characteristic frequency-size statistics, Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution, and mode switching activity. We find that phases of ASR exist only when the seismicity preceding a given large event has broad frequency-size statistics. In such cases the simulated ASR phases can be fitted well by the singular analytical relation with m = ?1/3, the nonsingular equation with m = 0.2, and the generalized version of the latter including a linear term with m = 1/3. The obtained good fits with all three relations highlight the difficulty of deriving reliable information on functional forms and parameter values from such data sets. The activation process in the simulated ASR phases is found to be accommodated both by increasing rates of moderate events and increasing average event size, with the former starting a few years earlier than the latter. The lack of ASR in portions of the seismicity not having broad frequency-size statistics may explain why some large earthquakes are preceded by ASR and other are not. The results suggest that observations of moderate and large events contain two complementary end-member predictive signals on the time of future large earthquakes. In portions of seismicity following the characteristic earthquake distribution, such information exists directly in the associated quasi-periodic temporal distribution of large events. In portions of seismicity having broad frequency-size statistics with random or clustered temporal distribution of large events, the ASR phases have predictive information. The extent to which natural seismicity may be understood in terms of these end-member cases remains to be clarified. Continuing studies of evolving stress and other dynamic variables in model calculations combined with advanced analyses of simulated and observed seismicity patterns may lead to improvements in existing forecasting strategies.     

Optimal placement of dampers and actuators based on stochastic approach

A general method is developed for optimal application of dampers and actuators by installing them at optimal location on seismic-resistant structures. The study includes development of a statistical criterion, formulation of a general optimization problem and establishment of a solution procedure. Numerical analysis of the seismic response in time-history of controlled structures is used to verify the proposed method for optimal device application and to demonstrate the effectiveness of seismic response control with optimal device location. This study shows that the proposed method for the optimal device application is simple and general, and that the optimally applied dampers and actuators are very efficient for seismic response reduction.     

Microseismicity Induced by Heavy Rainfall Around Flooded Vertical Ore Veins

—?Microseismicity (M?M?M?M??6 were also monitored at a crustal movement monitoring station located several hundred meters from the veins. It was found that the opening of the vertical ore veins primary led to significant strain and tilt, but not to seismicity, because the delay and the longer duration of the seismicity were significant. Most seismic events involve thrusting mechanisms that are consistent with the present stress state of E-W-oriented tectonic compression, but are not consistent with the opening of the deepest ore vein. Interstingly, all the events within a few months of the heavy rainfall occurred near the faults that offset the deepest ore veins, wheareas all those events located away from the deepest ore veins occurred many months after the heavy rainfall. Consequently, the delayed diffusion of water appears to have played a dominant role in reducing rock strength, which led to seismicity in the Ikuno mine.     

Power of the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological data

 The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistic test has been popularly used to assess the significance of a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological time series. It has been considered that the test is more suitable for non-normally distributed data and it may be not sensitive to the distribution type of sample data. However, no evidence has been provided to demonstrate these. This study investigates the power of the test in various circumstances by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results demonstrate that the power of the test is very sensitive to various properties of sample data. The power depends on the pre-assigned significance level, magnitude of a shift, sample size, and its occurrence position within a time series; and it is also strongly affected by the variation, skewness, and distribution type of a time series. The bigger the magnitude of a shift, the more powerful the test is; the larger the sample size, the more powerful the test is; and the bigger the variation within a time series, the less power the test has. The test has the highest power if a shift occurs at the midpoint of a time series. For the samples with different distribution types, the power of the test is dramatically different. The test has the highest power for time series with the extreme value type III (EV3) distribution while it indicates the lowest power for time series with the lognormal distribution.     

Modelling of meteorological conditions at an urban scale for the PUMA winter campaign

For the winter 2000 campaign of the Pollution of Urban Midlands Atmosphere project, observation and numerical modelling of meteorological conditions over the West Midlands conurbation, UK, was undertaken. Modelling was performed using the regional atmospheric meteorological system (RAMS). This paper presents a comparison of modelled and observed wind and temperature for 25 and 26 January 2000. The RAMS model uses two nested grids with a mesh size of 2 km for the inner grid which is embedded in the outer grid with a mesh size of 8 km. Statistical evaluation of the model results against the observational data of wind speed, direction and temperature at 10 m was conducted. In general, the modelling results are in a reasonable agreement with observation. The statistical evaluation suggests that model performance is poorer for the inner grid than the outer grid as the model uncertainties (mainly mean bias) transfer from the outer to inner one. The low indices of agreement of temperature and wind are mainly associated with the systematic root-mean-square-difference values. For temperature, the systematic bias may also be affected by representation of cloud amount by the model. For wind, the model tends to have a poor performance for calm conditions, as under a stable anti-cyclonic situation local wind patterns associated with topography may develop, although the topography of the region is relatively flat. The results for the inner grid reveal some subtle spatial patterns at a scale smaller than 10 km near hills and valleys with differences in elevation of a few hundred metres.     

Acute hypoxic exposure affects gamete quality and subsequent fertilization success and embryonic development in a serpulid polychaete

Hypoxia likely compromises the reproductive success of those marine organisms carrying out external fertilization because their gametes and embryos are inevitably exposed to the external environment. Hydroides elegans, a dominant serpulid polychaete in Hong Kong waters, can spawn throughout the year but the number of recruits drops during summer when hypoxia commonly occurs. This study attempted to explain such observation by investigating the gamete quality, including sperm motility, egg size, complexity and viability, after 1-h hypoxic exposure (1 mg O₂ l⁻¹). In addition, how gamete quality affects fertilization success and embryonic development was examined. After 1-h hypoxic exposure, sperm motility was significantly reduced, compromising fertilization success. Although the eggs remained viable, more malformed embryos and retarded embryonic development were observed. We interpreted that the harmful effect of hypoxia on embryonic development was attributed to the teratogenicity and induced oxidative stress, ultimately causing the reduction in recruitment during summer.     

A reinterpretation of the entrainment process in some laboratory experiments

Pollard et al. (1973) proposed a closure hypothesis for the entrainment process in the stress-mixed layer of a stratified fluid. Some laboratory experiments suitable for testing the hypothesis were carried out by Kantha et al. (1977) and by Kato and Phillips (1969). In the early period of each experiment, before side-wall friction becomes important, these experiments support the closure hypothesis, with a critical Froude number close to 1, perhaps F = 1.2 ± 0.2.