1984年元月6日旦马(M=5.5)级地震前重力固体潮的异常形态

重力预报地震的数据虽有多种,但它们的物理实质是一样的。因此,我们日常工作中只使用日均值和潮汐因子δ值。日均值能反映震前地壳的快速蠕滑过程,δ值反映了震前趋势的变化。我们将日均值作为短临预报指标,将δ值作为中长期预报指标。     

Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiple Discriminant Analysis of Marine Sediment Data

A multivariate statistical approach was used in the analysis of inter-relationships among marine benthic infaunal structure, physical and chemical characteristics of sediment samples and toxicity data derived from laboratory tests at 16 locations in shallow, inshore waters of Hong Kong. The method involved classification (cluster analysis using the Bray–Curtis similarity index) and ordination (multi-dimensional scaling) of infaunal patterns and the use of multiple discriminant analysis to relate groupings of the locations to the selected environmental and toxicity data. Analysis of the combined sediment physical, biological, chemical and toxicity dataset by stepwise multiple discriminant analysis allowed identification of those variables most sensitive for discriminating location groups. The use of multiple discriminant analysis in sediment quality characterization was evaluated against the Sediment Quality Triad approach and other statistical techniques.     

Numerical Investigation of the Somali Jet Interaction with the Western Ghat Mountains

—Several major features of the interaction of the Somali jet with the Western Ghat Mountains have been observed. These include a pressure ridge, strong vertical motions, and occurrences of highly reflective cloud and heavy rainfall rates along the west coast of India. A triple nested regional weather prediction model has been used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the Somali jet and the Western Ghat Mountains. Two numerical experiments were conducted; one with the topography of western India and the other without. In the experiment without topography, the Western Ghat Mountains were removed from the innermost domain. The results for the innermost domain in the two experiments were analyzed and compared. The results from the simulation with topography captured several of the observed features of the Somali jet interaction with the Western Ghat Mountains. The simulation without topography failed to reveal these features. The results suggest that the blocking effect of the Western Ghats plays an important role in the prediction of the rainfall over the west coast of India.     

Pattern Characteristics of Foreshock Sequences

—Earthquake clusterings in both space and time have various forms, in particular, two typical examples are the foreshock sequences and earthquake swarms. Based on the analysis of 8 foreshock sequences in mainland China during 1966–1996, this study concentrates on the pattern characteristics of foreshock sequences. The following pattern characteristics of foreshock sequences have been found (1) the epicenters of foreshock sequences were densely concentrated in space; (2) the focal mechanisms of foreshocks were similar to that of the main shock. Such consistency of focal mechanisms with main shocks did not exist in aftershock series as well as in several earthquake swarms; (3) we found no case in mainland China during the past thirty years that a main shock is preceded by an earthquake clustering with inconsistent focal mechanisms. Finally, we found 5% of the main shocks in mainland China are preceded by foreshock sequences.     

Magnetosheath Interaction with the High Latitude Magnetopause

We present both statistical and case studies of magnetosheath interaction with the high-latitude magnetopause on the basis of Interball-1 and other ISTP spacecraft data. We discuss those data along with recently published results on the topology of cusp-magnetosheath transition and the roles of nonlinear disturbances in mass and energy transfer across the high-latitude magnetopause. For sunward dipole tilts, a cusp throat is magnetically open for direct interaction with the incident flow that results in the creation of a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) over an indented magnetopause and downstream of the cusp. For antisunward tilts, the cusp throat is closed by a smooth magnetopause; demagnetized ‘plasma balls’ (with scale ∼ few R_E, an occurrence rate of ∼25% and trapped energetic particles) present a major magnetosheath plasma channel just inside the cusp. The flow interacts with the ‘plasma balls’ via reflected waves, which trigger a chaotization of up to 40% of the upstream kinetic energy. These waves propagate upstream of the TBL and initiate amplification of the existing magnetosheath waves and their cascade-like decays during downstream passage throughout the TBL. The most striking feature of the nonlinear interaction is the appearance of magnetosonic jets, accelerated up to an Alfvenic Mach number of 3. The characteristic impulsive local momentum loss is followed by decelerated Alfvenic flows and modulated by the TBL waves; momentum balance is conserved only on time scales of the Alfvenic flows (1/f_A ∼12 min). Wave trains at f_A∼1.3 mHz are capable of synchronizing interactions throughout the outer and inner boundary layers. The sonic/Alfvenic flows, bounded by current sheets, control the TBL spectral shape and result in non-Gaussian statistical characteristics of the disturbances, indicating the fluctuation intermittency. We suggest that the multi-scale TBL processes play at least a comparable role to that of macro-reconnection (remote from or in the cusp) in solar wind energy transformation and population of the magnetosphere by the magnetosheath plasma. Secondary micro-reconnection constitutes a necessary chain at the small-scale (∼ion gyroradius) edge of the TBL cascades. The thick TBL transforms the flow energy, including deceleration and heating of the flow in the open throat, ‘plasma ball’ and the region downstream of the cusp.     

The structural characteristics,age of origin,and tectonic attribute of the Erguna Fault,NE China

The Erguna Fault runs along the east bank of the Erguna River in NE China and is a large-scale ductile shear zone comprising granitic mylonites. This paper reports on the geometry, kinematic indicators, and 40Ar/39 Ar biotite ages of the granitic mylonites, to constrain the structural characteristics, forming age, and tectonic attribute of the Erguna ductile shear zone. The zone strikes NE and records a top-to-the-NW sense of shear. A mylonitic foliation and stretching lineation are well developed in the mylonites, which are classified as S-L tectonites. Logarithmic flinn parameters(1.18–2.35) indicate elongate strain which approximates to plane strain. Kinematic vorticity numbers are 0.42–0.92 and 0.48–0.94, based on the polar Mohr diagram and the oblique foliation in quartz ribbons, respectively, suggesting that the ductile shear zone formed under general shear, or a combination of simple and pure shear. According to finite strain and kinematic vorticity analyses, the Erguna Fault is a lengthening-thinning ductile shear zone that formed by extension. The deformation behavior of minerals in the mylonites indicates that the fault was the site of three stages of deformation: an initial stage of middle- to deep-level, high-temperature shear, a post-stress recovery phase of high-temperature static recrystallization, and a final phase of low-temperature uplift and cooling. The 40Ar/39 Ar plateau ages of biotite from the granitic mylonites are 106.16 ± 0.79 and 111.55 ± 0.67 Ma, which constrain the timing of low-temperature uplift and cooling but are younger than the ages of metamorphic core complexes(MCCs) in the Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia region. Using measured geological sections, microtectonics, estimates of finite strain and kinematic vorticity, and regional correlations and geochronology, we conclude that the Erguna Fault is an Early Cretaceous, NNE-trending, large-scale, sub-horizontal, and extensional ductile shear zone. It shares a similar tectonic background with the MCCs, volcanic fault basins, and large and super-large volcanic-hydrothermal deposits in Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia and the western Great Khingan Mountains, all of which are the result of overthickened crust that gravitationally collapsed and extended in the Early Cretaceous after plate collision along the present-day Sino-Russia-Mongolia border tract.     

Seismites in the Dasheng Group: New evidence of strong tectonic and earthquake activities of the Tanlu Fault Zone

More than 80 layers of seismites were recognized from the Early Cretaceous Dasheng Group in the Mazhan and Tancheng graben basins in the Tanlu Fault Zone, eastern China. The responsible seismic events took place about 110–100 Ma in the Early Cretaceous. The fault zone was affected at the time by strong tectonics, due to tension-related stretching and scattered squeezing by strike-slip faults. These tectonic activities induced a series of strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes(M) of 5–8.5. The earthquakes affected saturated or semi-consolidated flood and lake sediments, and produced intra-layer deformations by several processes, including liquefaction, thixotropy, drop, faulting, cracking, filling and folding, which resulted in the formation of various soft-sediment deformation structures, such as dikes and veins of liquefied sand, liquefied breccias, liquefied homogeneous layers, load structures, flame structures, ball-and-pillow structures, boudinage, diapirs, fissure infillings, a giant conglomerate wedge, and syn-sedimentary faults. The seismites are new evidence of tectonic and seismic activities in the Tanlu Fault Zone during the Early Cretaceous; the series of strong seismic events that can be deduced from them must be considered as a response to the destruction of the North China Craton.     

Electric and magnetic components of ballooning perturbations in the magnetotail plasma sheet before breakup

Using data from THEMIS spacecraft we investigated transverse to the magnetic field mutually perpendicular electric and magnetic components of ballooning type perturbations with periods 60–240 s, which are observed in the magnetospheric plasma sheet during the period preceding substorm onset. With applying Hilbert transform, we analyzed the phase relations between them. It is shown that the perturbations are dominated by radial electric and azimuthal magnetic (that is, toroidal) components which are usually in phase or out-of-phase. Along with them, approximately 2.5 times less intense azimuthal electric and radial magnetic components are present, which are more often phase-shifted by π/2. It is concluded that the observed perturbations are not a simple consequence of the development of plasma sheet ballooning instability, leading to the growth of strongly elongated along the magnetotail ballooning structures. It is pointed out that this conclusion is confirmed by simultaneous ground-based observations of magnetically conjugate auroral structures.