Regionalization of unit hydrograph Parameters: 2. Uncertainty analysis

Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.     

High-frequency directivity effects: evidence from analysis of the Les Saintes records

The main-shock (Mw, 6.3) and the aftershocks of the ‘Les Saintes’ earthquake sequence (French Indies) were analyzed to quantify high-frequency directivity effects. A correction method was applied to isolate source spectra within a large frequency range (0.5 to 25 Hz). Most of the aftershocks source spectra are fully consistent with a Brune spectrum point-source shape and do not show any azimuthal dependence. The main-shock (Mw, 6.3) and the two largest aftershocks (Mw, 5.8, 5.3) show, however, a clear azimuthal dependence that indicates significant directivity effect. The discrepancy of the radiated spectral energy and the change in the corner frequencies introduced by directivity effects show that such an effect is significant at high frequency (from 1 to 25 Hz). Our data suggest that the amplitudes in the main-shock Fourier spectrum at directive sites are around a factor of 2.5 higher with respect to anti-directive sites.     

Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast.     

Seasonal oscillations in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes

Using 3 years of high-quality temperature measurements (2002–2004) recorded from Maui, HI (20.8°N), we have investigated the characteristics of mesospheric seasonal oscillations at low-latitudes. Measurements of the near-infrared OH (6,2) and O₂ (0,1) nightglow emission layers (centered at 87 and 94 km) independently reveal a distinct semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and annual oscillation (AO) with amplitudes of 3.8 and 2.0 K, respectively. An observed asymmetry in the seasonal variation of the nocturnal mean, previously reported by Taylor et al. [2005. Characterization of the semi-annual-oscillation in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes. Advances in Space Research 35, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2005.05.111] from this site is shown to be due to a superposed AO of amplitude 50% of the SAO signature. Detailed investigations of the local-time variation of the SAO amplitude and phase combined with TIME-GCM simulations of the seasonal variation of the diurnal tide strongly suggest a large local-time dependence of the amplitude (but not phase) of the observed SAO. These data indicate that the true mean temperature SAO amplitude could be as high as 7 K at this latitude.     

Effect of prolonged hypoxia on food consumption, respiration, growth and reproduction in marine scavenging gastropod Nassarius festivus

The effects of prolonged exposure to reduced oxygen levels (3.0 and 1.5 mg O(2)l(-1)) on marine scavenging gastropods Nassarius festivus were studied for 8 weeks. The percentages of individuals engaged in feeding and amount of food consumed were reduced as oxygen level decreased; absorption efficiency, however, did not vary significantly with oxygen level. Oxygen consumption rates and specific oxygen consumption rates were lower at reduced oxygen levels. Reproduction occurred at all oxygen levels with less egg capsules being produced at lower oxygen levels. Egg size and number of eggs per capsule, however, were not significantly affected by oxygen level. The increase in shell length was 12%, 6% and 5% at 6.0 mgO(2)l(-1) (normoxia), 3.0 mgO(2)l(-1) and 1.5 mgO(2)l(-1), respectively. At the end of the experiment, the amount of energy allocated to growth and reproduction decreased at reduced oxygen levels with values obtained at 3.0 mgO(2)l(-1) and 1.5 mgO(2)l(-1) being 48% and 70% lower than those at 6.0 mgO(2)l(-1). At all oxygen levels, most of the accumulated energy was allocated to shell growth and reproduction, and the amount allocated to somatic growth was relatively insignificant. The reduction in energy allocated to reproduction was greater than that to shell growth as the oxygen level was reduced, indicating a strategic energy allocation of marine scavengers under stressful conditions to enhance survival.     

Analytical Model for Permeability Evolution in Microcracking Rock

— Analytical expressions to predict the enhancement of permeability due to stress-induced microcracking in initially low porosity rock are presented. A fracture mechanical microcrack model is employed to derive integrated effective hydraulic variables as a function of stress, which are then used to calculate the evolution of permeability using the statistically-based Dienes model. The model enables determination of permeability enhancement as a function of two loading parameters and three material parameters. Results are in reasonable agreement with experimental measurements and indicate that appreciable increases in permeability can be anticipated during brittle failure. The analytical nature of the model makes it easily incorporatable into numerical models that require quantification of the permeability evolution as a function of stress, for which there is currently no law.