Predicting lake water quality responses to load reduction: a three-dimensional modeling approach for total maximum daily load

Water quality restoration efforts often suffer the risk of ineffectiveness and failure due to lack of quantitative decision supports. During the past two decades, the restoration of one of China’s most heavily polluted lakes, Lake Dianchi, has experienced costly decision ineffectiveness with no detectable water quality improvement. The governments are planning to invest tremendous amount of funds in the next 5 years to continue the lake restoration process; however, without a quantitative understanding between the load reduction and the response in lake water quality, it is highly possible that these planned efforts would suffer the similar ineffectiveness as before. To provide scientifically sound decision support for guiding future load reduction efforts in Lake Dianchi Watershed, a sophisticated quantitative cause-and-effect response system was developed using a three-dimensional modeling approach. It incorporates the complex three dimensional hydrodynamics, fate and transport of nutrients, as well as nutrient-algae interactions into one holistic framework. The model results show that the model performs well in reproducing the observed spatial pattern and temporal trends in water quality. The model was then applied to three total maximum daily load scenarios and two refined restoration scheme scenarios to quantify phytoplankton responses to various external load reduction intensities. The results show that the algal bloom in Lake Dianchi responds to load reduction in a complex and nonlinear way, therefore, it is necessary to apply the developed system for future load reduction and lake restoration schemes for more informed decision making and effective management.     

Environmental isotopic and hydrochemical study of groundwater in the Ejina Basin,northwest China

The study investigates the groundwater evolution and its residence time in the Ejina Basin, northwest China according to isotope and hydrochemical analyses results. The groundwater chemistry is mainly controlled by the dissolution of halite, Glauber’s salt, gypsum, dolomite and calcite, also influenced by other processes such as evaporation, ion exchange, and deposition. Based on tritium content in atmospheric precipitation and by adopting a model with exponential time distribution function, the mean residence time of the unconfined aquifer groundwater with fairly high tritium activities (21–49 TU) is evaluated. The results show that these groundwaters have low residence time (5–120 years) and are renewable. In contrast, the deep confined groundwaters are tritium-free and radiocarbon values range from 18.3 to 26.7 pmc. According to the most commonly used ¹⁴C correction models, the radiocarbon groundwater ages were calculated which yield ages of approximately 4,087–9,364 years BP. Isotopic signatures indicate formation of deep confined groundwaters in a colder and wetter climate during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. It is suggested that long-term, rational water usage guide should be set up for the Heihe River Basin as a whole to permit a considerable discharge to the Ejina Basin.     

Recent increase in surface fCO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in the western subtropical North Pacific

We observed unusually high levels (> 440 μatm) of carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO₂) in surface seawater in the western subtropical North Pacific, the area where Subtropical Mode Water is formed, during summer 2015. The NOAA Kuroshio Extension Observatory moored buoy located in this region also measured high CO₂ values, up to 500 μatm during this period. These high sea surface fCO₂ (fCO_2SW) values are explained by much higher normalized total dissolved inorganic carbon and slightly higher normalized total alkalinity concentrations in this region compared to the equatorial Pacific. Moreover, these values are much higher than the climatological CO₂ values, even considering increasing atmospheric CO₂, indicating a recent large increase in sea surface CO₂ concentrations. A large seasonal change in sea surface temperature contributed to higher surface fCO_2SW in the summer of 2015.     

Generic 3D interpolation of Holocene base‐level rise and provision of accommodation space,developed for the Netherlands coastal plain and infilled palaeovalleys

We present an interpolation model that describes Holocene groundwater level rise and the creation of accommodation space in 3D in the Rhine‐Meuse delta – the Netherlands. The model area (ca. 12 400 km²) covers two palaeovalleys of Late Pleistocene age (each 30 km wide) and the overlying Holocene deposits of the Rhine‐Meuse delta, the Holland coastal plain, and the Zuiderzee former lagoon. Water table rise is modelled from 10 800 to 1000 cal. BP, making use of age‐depth relations based on 384 basal peat index points, and producing output in the form of stacked palaeo groundwater surfaces, groundwater age‐depth curves, and voxel sets. These products allow to resolve (i) regional change and variations of inland water table slopes, (ii) spatial differences in the timing and pacing of transgression, and (iii) analysis of interplay of coastal, fluvial and subsidence controls on the provision of accommodation space. The interpolation model is a multi‐parameter trend function, to which a 3D‐kriging procedure of the residuals is added. This split design deploys a generic approach for modelling provision of accommodation space in deltas and coastal lowlands, aiming to work both in areas of intermediate data availability and in the most data‐rich environments. Major provision of accommodation space occurred from 8500 cal BP onwards, but a different evolution occurred in each of the two palaeovalleys. In the northern valley, creation of accommodation space began to stall at 7500 cal BP, while in the southern valley provision of new accommodation space in considerable quantities continued longer. The latter is due to the floodplain gradient that was maintained by the Rhine, which distinguishes the fluvial deltaic environment from the rest of the back‐barrier coastal plain. The interpolation results allow advanced mapping and investigation of apparent spatial differences in Holocene aggradation in larger coastal sedimentary systems. Furthermore, they provide a means to generate first‐order age information with centennial precision for 3D geological subsurface models of Holocene deltas and valley fills. As such, the interpolation is of use in studies into past and present land subsidence and into low land sedimentation.     

Three-Dimensional Numerical Investigations of the Failure Mechanism of a Rock Disc with a Central or Eccentric Hole

The diametrical compression of a circular disc (Brazilian test) or cylinder with a small eccentric hole is a simple but important test to determine the tensile strength of rocks. This paper studies the failure mechanism of circular disc with an eccentric hole by a 3D numerical model (RFPA3D). A feature of the code RFPA3D is that it can numerically simulate the evolution of cracks in three-dimensional space, as well as the heterogeneity of the rock mass. First, numerically simulated Brazilian tests are compared with experimental results. Special attention is given to the effect of the thickness to radius ratio on the failure modes and the peak stress of specimens. The effects of the compressive strength to tensile strength ratio (C/T), the loading arc angle (2α), and the homogeneity index (m) are also studied in the numerical simulations. Secondly, the failure process of a rock disc with a central hole is studied. The effects of the ratio of the internal hole radius (r) to the radius of the rock disc (R) on the failure mode and the peak stress are investigated. Thirdly, the influence of the vertical and horizontal eccentricity of an internal hole on the initiation and propagation of cracks inside a specimen are simulated. The effect of the radius of the eccentric hole and the homogeneity index (m) are also investigated.     

Mathematical modeling of PCB bioaccumulation in Perna viridis

In the present work, we built a mathematical model of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) bioaccumulation in Perna viridis, namely, a one-compartment model with a time dependent incorporation rate R (μg g⁻¹ lipid per ppb water per day), with positive substrate cooperativity as the underlying physical mechanism. The temporal change of the PCB concentration Q (μg g⁻¹ lipid) in the soft tissues of the mussel depends on the competition of the input rate RW and the output rate kQ, where W is the concentration of PCB in water (ppb water) and k is the elimination rate (per day). From our experimental data, k=0.181±0.017 d⁻¹. The critical concentration in water W_c for positive substrate cooperativity was found to be 2.4 ppb. Below W_c, R is a constant. For a water concentration of 0.5 ppb Aroclor 1254, R=24.0±2.4 μg g⁻¹ lipid ppb⁻¹ d⁻¹. Above W_c, positive substrate cooperativity comes into effect and R becomes a function of time and dependent on the concentration Q in a form R=γQ/(Q+δ). This is the case for a water concentration of 5 ppb Aroclor 1254, where γ=15.1 μg g⁻¹ lipid ppb⁻¹ d¹ and δ≈200 μg g⁻¹ lipid. From this model, the uptake is exponentially increasing when the PCB concentration in the mussel is small compared to 200 μg g⁻¹ lipid, and hyperbolically increasing when the concentration is large compared to 200 μg g⁻¹ lipid, which are consistent with the experimental data. The model is useful for understanding the true processes taking place during the bioaccumulation and for risk assessment with higher confidence. Future experimental data which challenge the present model are anticipated and in fact desirable for improvement and perfection of the model.     

Turbulence Statistics Above And Within Two Amazon Rain Forest Canopies

The turbulence structure in two Amazon rain forestswas characterised for a range of above-canopystability conditions, and the results compared withprevious studies in other forest canopies and recenttheory for the generation of turbulent eddies justabove forest canopies. Three-dimensional wind speedand temperature fluctuation data were collectedsimultaneously at up to five levels inside and abovetwo canopies of 30–40 m tall forests, during threeseparate periods. We analysed hourly statistics, jointprobability distributions, length scales, spatialcorrelations and coherence, as well as power spectraof vertical and horizontal wind speed.The daytime results show a sharp attenuation ofturbulence in the top third of the canopies, resultingin very little movement, and almost Gaussianprobability distributions of wind speeds, in the lowercanopy. This contrasts with strongly skewed andkurtotic distributions in the upper canopy. At night,attenuation was even stronger and skewness vanishedeven in the upper canopy. Power spectral peaks in thelower canopy are shifted to lower frequencies relativeto the upper canopy, and spatial correlations andcoherences were low throughout the canopy. Integrallength scales of vertical wind speed at the top of thecanopy were small, about 0.15 h compared to avalue of 0.28 h expected from the shear lengthscale at the canopy top, based on the hypothesis that theupper canopy air behaves as a plane mixing layer. Allthis suggests that, although exchange is not totallyinhibited, tropical rain forest canopies differ from other forests in that rapid, coherentdownward sweeps do not penetrate into the lowercanopy, and that length scales are suppressed. This isassociated with a persistent inversion of stability inthat region compared to above-canopy conditions. Theinversion is likely to be maintained by strong heatabsorption in the leaves concentrated near thecanopy top, with the generally weak turbulence beingunable to destroy the temperature gradients over thelarge canopy depth.     

Paléo-bactéries et minéralisations plombo-zincifères du Bled Zelfane (tunisie centrale)

Résumé Le Bled Zelfane est un synclinal mio-pliocène sur la bordure septentriono-orientale de l'ile de Kasserine. L'ile de Kasserine est une plate-forme devenue insulaire à partir du Crétacé supérieur et restée émergée jusqu'au Miocène moyen. Ce môle a été soumis apparemment pendant sa période continentale à un climat oxydant de type méditerranéen relativement sec. On note une certaine diversification dans la nature des dépôts en zones basses (secteur de Kasserine) et en zones hautes (secteur du Bled Zelfane). En zones basses, la sécheresse climatique a favorisé la formation de dépôts de gypse, d'argiles rouges et de calcrêtes. En zones hautes, une érosion par lessivage acide a créé des dépressions karstiques dans les calcaires du Crétacé supérieur (Aïn Khamouda) et dans les calcaires du Maëstrichtien (Sidi Mabrouk et Guémata). Le remplissage des cavités karstiques (poches, crevasses) s'est fait avec de l'argile blanche (halloysite), contenant des micro-cristaux de galène, avec de la calamine et des oxydes de fer. Les conditions climatiques étaient trop oxydantes pour que le zinc se dépose autrement que sous forme de calamine. Elles expliquent aussi la présence de paléo-algobactéries (aérobies) sur la calamine. La présence de micro-cristaux de galène dans l'halloysite serait liée à un sulfuretum et non à des conditions réductrices réelles. Il semble en effet que dans ces karsts du Bled Zelfane une flore bactérienne très riche a joué un rôle essentiel dans le piégeage d'éléments lourds et notamment dans la genèse de galènes supergènes et dans la cristallisation de la calamine. Une minéralisation, elle aussi plombo-zincifère, de type stratiforme, s'observe à la base de Miocène inférieur et montre de même des bactéries fossiles à foison.

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Bled Zelfane is a Mio-Pliocene syncline on the NE edge of the palaeo-island of Kasserine, a platform which became insular at the beginning of the Upper Cretaceous and remained emergent until the Middle Miocene. During its long emergence this platform was affected by an oxidising, relatively dry, Mediterranaean-type climate. There exists a certain diversity in the sedimentary accumulations in both the lower (Kasserine area) and upper (Bled Zelfane area) sectors of this palaeo-relief. In the lower sectors the dry climate has favourised gypsum, red clays and calcrete formation. In the higher sectors erosion and leaching by acid waters has created karstic depressions in the Upper Cretaceous (Aïn Khamouda) and in the limestones of Maestrichtian (Sidi Mabrouk and Guémata). The karst cavities (pockets and fissures) are filled with white, halloysite clays containing micro-crystals of galena associated with calamine (Zn) and iron oxides. The climatic conditions were too oxidising to permit the formation of Zn other than in the form of calamine. The dry climate is also an explanation for the presence of aerobic palaeo-algobacteria on this calamine. The presence of micro-crystals of galena within the halloysite is probably related to a sulfuretum and not to effective reducing conditions. It would seem that the presence of a rich bacterial flora within the karst at Bled Zelfane has played a significant role in the stabilisation of heavy elements, and especially the supergene genesis of the galena. A Lead/Zinc mineralisation also exists at the base of the Miocene. This latter is diffused through the cement in conglomerates and sandstones.