Estimation of physical efficiency of hail protection accounting for changes in hail climatology

Results are considered of study of climate global warming effects on hail climatology and on technique of estimation of physical efficiency of hail protection taking account of the region hail danger trend. It is found that during last 30 years, occurrence frequency of hail and the number of heavy hailstorms in the mountainous areas of the Northern Caucasus decreased, on average, by a factor of 1.5–2, and in the foothill areas increased by 15–20%. It is shown that efficiency of hail protection works should be estimated taking into account the hail danger trend for each region.     

Turbulent Kinetic Energy Dissipation in the Surface Layer

We estimated the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate for thirty-two 1-h intervals of unstable stratification covering the stability range 0.12 ≤ −z/L ≤ 43 (z/L is the ratio of instrument height to the Obukhov length), by fitting Kolmogorov’s inertial subrange spectrum to streamwise spectra observed over a desert flat. Estimated values are compatible with the existence of local equilibrium, in that the TKE dissipation rate approximately equalled the sum of shear and buoyant production rates. Only in the neutral limit was the turbulent transport term in the TKE budget measured to be small.     

Specifying the mesoscale numerical forecast of heavy showers

Actual surface fields of meteorological variables 1–3 hours before the heavy showers are analyzed in detail for the purpose of their specification with WRF-ARW model. The complex of hygrothermodynamic characteristics needed for this purpose is discovered. The detailed satellite, radar, and synoptic data are also considered.     

Inertial instability of large Rossby number horizontal shear flows in a thin homogeneous layer

A horizontal shear flow having a Rossby number, Ro, greater than unity on a rotating plane can become unstable when its shear value is less than −f, the Coriolis frequency. In this paper, this instability is investigated for an O(10 km) submesoscale, sinusoidal shear flow in a thin homogeneous fluid layer as in an oceanic mixed layer or a shallow sea. The most unstable mode is shown by a linear analysis to occur in a narrow localized region centered around the maximum anticyclonic current shear. However, nonlinear numerical calculations show that the instability can grow to encompass both unstable and stable regions of the current. A consequence of this finite-amplitude evolution is the formation of surface convergence/shear fronts. The possibility that inertial instability mechanism is a source of some surface convergence/shear features seen in remote sensing images of the sea surface is discussed. A comparison is made with the shear-flow instability that can occur concurrently in a sinusoidal shear current, and inertial instability is shown to be the dominant instability mechanism in the immediate range above Ro=2.     

A quasi-static nucleation model. 1. Homogeneous nucleation

A homogeneous nucleation model is considered. It is based on the idea that in the parent phase, a quasi-static distribution is formed of the new phase nuclei as an effect of mechanisms of their generation and destruction. An estimate is presented of quantity and of generation rate for viable nuclei in supersaturated vapor and supercooled water. The calculation results are compared against earlier experimental data obtained by different authors.     

Influence of Changes in the Prevailing Synoptic Conditions on the Response of Aerosol Characteristics to Land- and Sea-Breeze Circulations at a Coastal Station

The changes in the response of near surfaceaerosol properties to land- and sea-breezecirculations, associated with the changes in the prevailing synoptic meteorological conditions, are examined for a tropical coastal station. Aerosol properties are nearly similar in both the breeze regimes (land and sea) during seasons of marine airmass while they are distinct during seasons of continental airmass. As the prevailing winds shift from continental to marine and the ambient weather changes from winter conditions to the humid monsoon season, the submicron mode, which dominated the aerosol mass-size distribution, is largely suppressed and the dominance of the super micron mode increases. During periods of continental air mass (winter), the aerosol loading is significantly higher in the land-breeze regime, (particularly in the submicron range) but as the winds shift to marine, the loading initially becomes insensitive to the breeze regimes and later becomes higher in the sea-breeze regime, particularly in the super micron range.     

An optimization scheme of instrumental soil water storage determination

An optimization scheme is considered of the method of instrumental determination of soil moisture used within the Roshydromet system. The scheme enables to reduce the volume of instrumental operations by 2.5–3 times using the empirical statistical dependences between the water content in different layers of the soil profile. Efficiency of the filtration of outliers in the data sample is studied on the basis of the analysis of regression residuals when deriving the regression equations.     

The influence of momentum advection on the Baltic Sea dynamics

Contribution of momentum advection to the formation of the low frequency fields of the Baltic Sea levels and currents is estimated using numerical experiments with a hydrodynamic model and statistical analysis of the experimental results. It is found that momentum advection has a significant influence on the formation of the mean level and its seasonal and synoptic variability in Neva Bay of the Gulf of Finland. The results show that nonlinear effects associated with advective accelerations can essentially contribute to the Neva River flood formation.     

Winter climatology of upper-level frontal zones in the Northern Hemisphere

Average long-term fields of geopotential gradients in the middle and upper troposphere and temperature gradients and geopotential Laplacian in the middle troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere in winter are analyzed. Based on the analysis of the distribution of the maximum values of gradients, the average long-term position of upper-level frontal zones and their axial lines was determined. Their spatial distribution is analyzed from the point of view of interaction between thermobaric fields over different regions of the globe. Average long-term parameters of upper-level frontal zones in the middle troposphere are presented. Average long-term fields of wind speed in the middle and upper troposphere are investigated. It is demonstrated that the zones of the maximum values of wind speed agree well with the position of separated upper-level frontal zones.