Change in the circulation regime in the stratified saline Lake Shira (Siberia,Republic of Khakassia)

The in-situ data on the vertical structure and stability of the vertical stratification of saline Lake Shira over the past decade (2007–2015) are analyzed. Simplified mathematical models have shown that strong wind in the autumn of 2014 together with rather thick ice in the winter of 2015 caused a change in the circulation regime of this water reservoir from meromictic (incomplete mixing) to holomictic (compete mixing). Based on the results obtained, a circulation regime for deep saline lakes located in the continental climate zone, in particular, in the arid zones of Southern Siberia (Khakassia, Transbaikal, and Altai) can be predicted under various climate scenarios of the future.     

土壤中Cd、Pb、Hg离子的地球化学行为模拟实验

研究了山西省3种不同质地的土壤对Cd2＋、Pb2＋、Hg2＋的吸附、解吸和3种离子在土壤中的运移特性。结果表明,Cd2＋、Pb2＋和Hg2＋在粘粒土壤中的吸附能力大于在砂粒土壤中的吸附能力,且3种土壤对Pb2＋都有很强的吸附能力,吸附的Pb2＋很难在土壤中解吸下来。3种土壤对3种金属离子的吸附能力为Pb2＋＞Cd2＋＞Hg2＋,解吸能力正好相反,这主要与土壤的不同性质和3种重金属离子的水合离子半径、离子的水合能密切相关。Cd2＋在3种土壤中的等温吸附符合Freundlich和Langmuir方程,Pb2＋在3种土壤中的吸附特征符合Henry方程,而Hg2＋在3种土壤中的吸附符合Langmuir方程。土柱淋滤实验表明,Hg2＋在土壤中的穿透性很强,Cd2＋次之,Pb2＋在土壤中的穿透性最慢,其在长达20天的淋滤过程中仍然没有穿透土柱。3种不同质地的土壤对Cd2＋、Pb2＋和Hg2＋的迁移能力都表现为：大同土壤＞临汾土壤＞太原土壤。     

Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F?=?90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2–60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5–120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2–60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a range of periods around 60 days, the coastal sea level in Southern California is coherent with the sea surface height (SSH) variability over the shelf break in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, more than with the coastal SSH at the same latitudes.     

Smoothing and high risk areas detection in space-time disease mapping: a comparison of P-splines,autoregressive, and moving average models

Recently, several models have been proposed for smoothing risks in disease mapping. These models consider different ways of introducing both spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatio-temporal interactions. In this work, a comparison among some autoregressive, moving average, and P-spline models is performed. Firstly, brain cancer mortality data are used to analyze the degree of smoothness introduced by these models. Secondly, two separate simulation studies (one model-based and the other model-free) are carried out to evaluate the model performance in terms of bias, variability, sensitivity, and specificity. We conclude that P-spline models seem to be a good alternative to autoregressive and moving average models when analyzing highly sparse disease mapping data.     

Synergetic efficiency of Lidar and WorldView-2 for 3D urban cartography in Northeast Mexico

Three-dimensional urban cartography is needed for city changes’ assessment. The variety of studies using 3D calculations of urban elements grows each year. Building and vegetation volumes are necessary to assess and understand spatio-temporal urban changeable environments. However, there are technical questions as to which method can improve 3D urban cartographic accuracy. The innovative part of this current study is the creation of a six-band hybrid obtained from LIDAR and WorldView2 synergy. Two different enhancement algorithms demonstrated the most important spectral features for the urban development and vegetation classes. Results indicated an improvement in accuracy by up to 21.3%, according to the Kappa coefficient. Both infra-red band and intensity band were the most significant, according to the principal components analysis. The synergy delimited classes and polygons, as well as the direct display of information regarding heights of elements and improving the extraction of roads, buildings and vegetation classes.     

Surface gravitational field and topography changes induced by the Earth’s fluid core motions

Using a Love number formalism, the elastic deformations of the mantle and the mass redistribution gravitational potential within the Earth induced by the fluid pressure acting at the core–mantle boundary (CMB) are computed. This pressure field changes at a decadal time scale and may be estimated from observations of the surface magnetic field and its secular variation. First, using a spherical harmonic expansion, the poloidal and toroidal part of the fluid velocity field at the CMB for the last 40 years is computed, under the hypothesis of tangential geostrophy. Then the associated geostrophic pressure, whose order of magnitude is about 1000 Pa, is computed. The surface topography induced by this pressure field is computed using Love numbers, and is a few millimetres. The mass redistribution gravitational potential induced by these deformations and, in particular, the zonal components of the related surface gravitational potential perturbation (J₂, J₃ and J₄ coefficients), are calculated. Overall perturbations for the J₂ coefficient of about 10^–10, for J₃ of about 10^–11 and for J₄ are found of about 0.3×10^–11. Finally, these theoretical results are compared with recent observations of the decadal variation of J₂ from satellite laser ranging. Results concerning J₂ can be described as follows: first, they are one order of magnitude too small to explain the observed decadal variation of J₂ and, second, they show a significant linear trend over the last 40 years, whose rate of decrease amounts to 7% of the observed value.     

DEM simulations of sandstone under true triaxial compressive tests

Numerically simulated true triaxial compression tests (σ ₁ ≥ σ ₂ ≥ σ ₃) are conducted in this study to elucidate the failure mechanism of sandstone using 3D discrete element method (DEM), in particular the effect of the intermediate principal stress (σ ₂). Eight series of tests (σ ₃ = 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 70, and 100 MPa) are conducted. Within each series, σ ₂ is varied from σ ₂ = σ ₃ to σ ₂ = σ ₁ from test to test. For each test, σ ₁ is raised monotonically to failure while keeping σ ₂ and σ ₃ constant. The DEM simulations reveal the effect of σ ₂ on the variations of peak stress, Young’s modulus, failure plane angles, the brittle–ductile transition, and the evolution of failure modes, the effect beyond the well-understood effect of σ ₃. The simulation is in qualitative agreement with the results obtained experimentally. Detailed analyses performed on the particle-scale responses further the understanding of the microscopic mechanisms. The distribution of contact force becomes more homogeneous with the increase of σ ₃, which leads to the resulting damage being more localized rather than diffused. The interaction between contact force distribution and coalescence of cracks determines the processes and patterns of fracturing in the sample scale. σ ₂ is found to affect the microscopic stress distribution as well as structure evolution, and this effect weakens with the increase of σ ₃.     

Short-term water quality variability in two tropical estuaries,central Sumatra

We examined high frequency fluctuations in water quality parameters in two tropical coastal plain estuaries in response to changing tidal flow conditions. The variability in total suspended sediments (TSS), volatile suspended solids (VSS), total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations, and indicators of water quality, including pH, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen, over one spring tidal cycle during the early wet monsoon season was measured in two estuaries in eastern Sumatra. The relatively high rainfall experienced throughout the year, in combination with the recent extensive vegetation clearing and modification of the landscape, resulted in significant concentrations of TSS, VSS, and TOC being discharged to coastal waters. Maximum values are reached on the ebb tide (TSS > 1,013 mg l⁻¹; VSS > 800 mg l⁻¹; TOC >60 mg l⁻¹). The influence of freshwater discharge and tidal flow on water properties of the lower estuaries is also marked by the variability in salinity, dissolved oxygen, and pH over the tidal cycle, with minimum values for each of these parameters following maximum current velocities and after the completion of the strong ebb tide. Estimation of seaward sediment fluxes, which are of significant interest in a region where rapid environmental change is occurring, would require further examination of sedimentary processes, such as resuspension and advection of sediment, as well as a consideration of neap-spring tidal variations and the effect of seasonality on estuarine circulation.     

Calibration of JASON-1 Altimeter over Lake Erie

This article describes absolute calibration results for both JASON-1 and TOPEX Side B (TSB) altimeters obtained at the Lake Erie calibration site, Marblehead, Ohio, USA. Using 15 overflights, the estimated JASON altimeter bias at Marblehead is 58 ± 38 mm, with an uncertainty of 19 mm based on detailed error analysis. Assuming that the TSB bias is negligible, relative bias estimates using both data from the TSB-JASON formation flight period and data from 48 water level gauges around the entire Great Lakes confirmed the Marblehead results. Global analyses using both the formation flight data and dual-satellite (TSB and JASON) crossovers yield a similar relative bias estimate of 146 ± 59 mm, which agrees well with open ocean absolute calibration results obtained at Harvest, Corsica, and Bass Strait (e.g., Watson et al. 2003). We find that there is a strong dependence of bias estimates on the choice of sea state bias (SSB) models. Results indicate that the invariant JASON instrument bias estimated oceanwide is 71 mm, with additional biases of 76 mm or 28 mm contributed by the choice of Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS) SSB or Center for Space Research (CSR) SSB model, respectively. Similar analysis in the Great Lakes yields the invariant JASON instrument bias at 19 mm, with the SSB contributed biases at 58 mm or 13 mm, respectively. The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown and warrants further investigation. Finally, comparison of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission (1992-2002) data with the Great Lakes water level gauge measurements yields a negligible TOPEX altimeter drift of 0.1 mm/yr.