黄、渤海冷空气海浪场的集合预报试验

利用欧洲集合天气预报系统51个预报风场驱动SWAN海浪模式,对黄、渤海2013年12月-2014年2月期间受冷空气影响的海浪场进行数值模拟试验,并利用浮标观测资料对海浪集合预报结果进行初步检验分析,结果显示:从逐时平均偏差结果可知,24h预报时效内集合平均与控制预报性能相近,48~72h预报时效内,集合平均明显优于控制预报,但均比实况偏小;集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)明显优于集合平均,且预报时效越长,优势越明显,集合预报极端值与实况相当或略偏大;从逐24h平均偏差结果可知,集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)比集合平均和控制预报更接近实况。总的分析表明:集合分位值(75、90百分位值和极端值)对受冷空气影响的海浪场具有较强的分辨能力,可以提高对海浪场的预报水平,且有较好的应用潜力。     

Whipple telescope observations of LS I +61 303: 2004–2006

In this paper we present the results of the past two years observations on the galactic microquasar LS I +61 303 with the Whipple 10 m gamma-ray telescope. The recent MAGIC detection of the source between 200 GeV and 4 TeV suggests that the source is periodic with very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission linked to its orbital cycle. The entire 50-hour data set obtained with Whipple from 2004 to 2006 was analyzed with no reliable detection resulting. The upper limits obtained in the 2005–2006 season covered several of the same epochs as the MAGIC Telescope detections, albeit with lower sensitivity. Upper limits are placed on emission during the orbital phases of 0→0.1 and 0.8→1, phases which are not included in the MAGIC data set.      

Use of the population potential model for predicting the growth of cities in a region (with reference to Moscow Oblast)

"A modification of the population potential model is used to analyze the structure of the potential of population for cities of the Moscow region, to develop a relationship between population potential and city size, and to use this procedure to forecast future population change in Moscow Oblast cities." Cities in the region with a population of 50,000 or more at the censuses of 1959, 1970, and 1979 are included.     

Possible climate change/variability and human impacts,vulnerability of drought-prone regions,water resources and capacity building for Africa

ABSTRACT

This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor N. Ilich     

Geophysical exploration for interlayer slip breccia gold deposits: example from Pengjiakuang gold deposit, Shandong Province, China

Interlayer slipping breccia‐type gold deposit – a new type of gold deposit, defined recently in the northern margin of the Jiaolai Basin, Shandong Province, China – occurs in interlayer slip faults distributed along the basin margin. It has the features of large orebody thickness (ranging from 14 m to 46 m, with an average thickness of 30 m), shallow embedding (0–50 m thickness of cover), low tenor of gold ore (ranging from 3 g/t to 5 g/t), easy mining and ore dressing. This type of gold deposit has promising metallogenic forecasting and potential for economic exploitation. A ground gamma‐ray survey in the Pengjiakuang gold‐ore district indicates that the potassium/thorium ratio is closely related to the mineralization intensity, i.e. the larger the potassium/thorium ratio, the higher the mineralization. The gold mineralized alteration zone was defined by a potassium/thorium ratio of 0.35. A seismic survey confirms the location of the top and bottom boundaries and images various features within the Pengjiakuang gold mineralization belt. The gold‐bearing shovel slipped belt dips to the south at an angle of 50–55° at the surface and 15–20° at depth. The seismic profile is interpreted in terms of a structural band on the seismic section characterized by a three‐layered model. The upper layer is represented by weakly discontinuous reflections that represent the overlying conglomerates. A zone of stronger reflections representing the interlayer slip fault (gold‐bearing mineralized zone) is imaged within the middle of the section, while the strongest reflections are in the lower part of the section and represent metamorphic rocks at depth. At the same time, the seismic reflection survey confirms the existence of a granite body at depth, indicating that ore‐forming fluids may be related to the granite. A CSAMT survey showed that the gold‐bearing mineralized zone is a conductive layer and contains a low‐resistivity anomaly ranging from 2 Ωm to 200 Ωm.     

Geochemical characteristics and evaluation of minor and trace elements pollution in groundwater of Tuticorin city,Tamil Nadu,India using geospatial techniques

In this work the major and trace elements pollution levels in groundwater of Tuticorin city of Tamil Nadu was investigated. This coastal city with numerous large and small scale industries has increasingly affected the water quality by dumping effluents. The mean major and trace elements levels in groundwater in descending order: Si > Sr > Zn > Fe > Rb > Se > Al > Mn > Cu > As > Cr > Ba > V > Ni > Pb > Mo > Co > Sb > Cd > Ag. The concentrations of As, Se, Pb, Ba, Al, Fe and V (0.084, 0.150, 0.057, 0.837, 0.357 and 0.052) in some of the groundwater samples exceed the standard value of world health organization (WHO, 2004). Interrelationship between the elements was done by correlation matrix and factor analysis which indicates the contribution from industrial and irrigation fields. Spatial interpolation of inverse distance method (IDW) maps of all the elements suggested that discharge of effluents from chemical factory (STERLITE, TAC, SPIC, HEAVY WATER PLANT, NILA SEA FOODS), municipal wastewater, fertilizers were added to the natural sources. Results of this research suggests that proper measures should be taken to protect the vital groundwater resources in the Tuticorin city.     

Inertial instability of large Rossby number horizontal shear flows in a thin homogeneous layer

A horizontal shear flow having a Rossby number, Ro, greater than unity on a rotating plane can become unstable when its shear value is less than −f, the Coriolis frequency. In this paper, this instability is investigated for an O(10 km) submesoscale, sinusoidal shear flow in a thin homogeneous fluid layer as in an oceanic mixed layer or a shallow sea. The most unstable mode is shown by a linear analysis to occur in a narrow localized region centered around the maximum anticyclonic current shear. However, nonlinear numerical calculations show that the instability can grow to encompass both unstable and stable regions of the current. A consequence of this finite-amplitude evolution is the formation of surface convergence/shear fronts. The possibility that inertial instability mechanism is a source of some surface convergence/shear features seen in remote sensing images of the sea surface is discussed. A comparison is made with the shear-flow instability that can occur concurrently in a sinusoidal shear current, and inertial instability is shown to be the dominant instability mechanism in the immediate range above Ro=2.     

Modeling microclimate environments: A verification study

A numerical model is developed for simulating microclimate of plants and bare soil. The model evaluates heat, mass, momentum, and radiative fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Its vertical domain may extend throughout the whole Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). The model requires, either, temporal meteorological data of solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature and humidity measured over the field, or, when applied to the whole PBL, initial values of the latter three at its top. Vegetation parameters (leaf area index, photometric properties, root distribution and density) as well as soil texture, hydraulic and photometric properties are considered. The model was verified with meteorological data taken from two different climatological regions, above a bare soil and two cotton fields.For all case studies, observed and calculated values of air (except for within-canopy) and soil temperatures, wind speed, net radiation, and soil-, latent-, and sensible heat fluxes, agreed well with measurements.