北京一次冬季回流暴雪天气过程的数值分析

回流天气是华北地区冬、春、秋季节产生降雨（雪）的主要天气类型,预报员常常因对回流天气系统结构特征认识不足和诊断失误而导致预报的失败,是降雨（雪）预报的难点和重点。利用北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化中尺度数值预报系统（BJ-RUC）对2010年1月2—3日一次典型的回流暴雪天气过程进行模拟,分析数值模式的模拟能力,研究各层主要影响系统结构特征及形成暴雪的关键性条件,探讨典型回流暴雪天气过程的形成机理。主要结论为：数值模式对此次暴雪过程的近地面回流冷空气、中低层低值系统及变化特征、主要降雪时段和降雪量模拟效果较好,对降雪落区的模拟存在一定偏差。低层回流偏东风遇到地形后引起垂直运动主要在低层800 hPa以下,所产生的降雪量不大,而其与上游850～700 hPa低涡系统发展东移其前部的上升运动汇合所形成的大范围、深厚、强烈的上升运动是产生明显降雪的关键性条件。上游低涡系统前部西南暖湿气流相对应的大湿度区移近是产生较强降雪的重要条件。持续的低层回流冷空气湿度较大,对于低层大气起到水汽输送的作用。回流冷空气使低层大气维持长时间的水汽输送并与其上层东移的大湿度区相结合,增加湿层厚度,有利于降雪持续而形成较强降雪。降雪开始时间和降雪强度的变化与对流层中下转偏南风的时间和偏南风风速增大有关。     

地震红外长波辐射短期异常特征分析

利用NOAA卫星资料反演的地震长波辐射值OLR对黑龙江及其周边2003年以来8次中强地震进行了追踪研究.结果显示,震前2个月左右OLR场值存在明显的高值异常区,未来震中距离高值区中心点250km(优势距离为160km).该方法对黑龙江及其周边4级以上地震短期判定可能具有一定的指示价值,也为利用卫星遥感技术预测未来可能发震区域并及时做出短期预测预警提供了新途径.     

中国早期具刺疑源类的演化及生物地层学意义

本文以我国元古代至早寒武世梅树村阶中发现的具刺疑源类化石为基础，结合最近研究的新资料，通过对具刺疑源类化石组合特征、形态对比、微细结构和演经关系的研究，并与国内外资料广泛为对比。探讨了我国早期具刺疑源类的演化阶段、各阶段的组合特征及生物地展学意义，论证了我国早期具刺疑原类的演化发展趋势。     

川滇地区地震活动单键群分析

利用单键群（即ＳＬＣ）分析方法,通过有关ＳＬＣ特征参量的时间滑移分析,结合１９７０年以来的区域地震活动和构造环境,分析了川滇西部地区的地震活动。较之７０年代和８０年代,９０年代的地震活动在总体上是处于中等强度的活动水平。文章认为,ＳＬＣ方法考虑了地震事件的时空关联性,可以用来分析地震活动趋势,是研究地震活动性的有用工具。     

Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales

The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

农牧交错带气候变化对土地利用的影响及对策——以内蒙古伊金霍洛旗为例

文章讨论了农牧交错带典型区域的气候变化特点,并运用GIS技术分析了区域土地利用变化。在此基础上,分析了气候变化对土地利用结构的影响,并提出了应对策略。这些对策将促进农牧交错带社会经济增长和生态环境的改善,对实现区域的可持续发展具有重要意义。     

二维小波变换在消除相干噪声中的应用

相干噪声常使地震记录中的反射同相轴模糊不清,使得处理解释难以进行。而常规的各种ｆ－ｋ滤波技术不能对其有效地消除,且每种技术都有其局限性,容易产生人为假象,使信号发生很大畸变。我们的技术是利用二维小波变换,把二维地震信号变换到有关频率、时间、波数、空间的一个四维函数。根据信号和相干噪声在频率、时间、波数、空间等方面的局部差异来达到滤波的目的。经过对实际炮集数据的处理表明该方法比ｆ－ｋ滤波技术消除噪声的效果要好,信号的畸变程度更低,并且没有任何限制条件。     

Tectonic evolution of the Late Paleozoic Early Mesozoic orogenic belt in the eastern segment of the northern margin of the North China Block: Evidence from meta volcanic rocks of Jianshanzi,northern Liaoning ProvinceSCIEI北大核心CSCD

LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating, whole -rock geochemistry and Hf isotopic analyses for the Jianshanzi volcanic rocks in the Kaiyuan area are presented to explore the Late Paleozoic -Early Mesozoic tectonic evolution history of the eastern segment of the northern margin of the North China block. The detailed research indicates that the protolith of Jianshanzi metamorphic volcanic rocks includes rhyolite, dacite and andesite, they are calc-alkaline series and metaluminous-weak peraluminous rocks. According to the zircon U-Pb dating, the metamorphic rhyolite and metamorphic andesite formed in the Late Permian (256. 1 +/- 1. 5Ma, 252.4 +/- 1. 7Ma) and the Late Triassic (222. 4 +/- 1. 8Ma, 227. 9 +/- 1. 2Ma), respectively. They are characteristized by enrichment in light rare earth elements and large ion lithophile elements, and depletion of heavy rare earth elements and high field strength elements. Metamorphic rhyolite has an obvious negative Eu anomaly with epsilon(Hf) ( t) values of 10. 83 + 8. 10 and the second -stage model are 698 similar to 1967Ma. They are mainly due to the partial melting of the juvenile basaltic lower crust and the contamination of a small amount of ancient crustal materials. Metamorphic andesite has no obvious Eu anomaly, and the epsilon(Hf)( t) value and the second -stage model are +4.54 similar to + 6. 79 and 825 similar to 968 Ma, which may be the product of partial melting of basic lower crust. There are two periods of magmatism in Jianshanzi volcanic rocks: Late Permian -Early Triassic (247 similar to 256Ma) and Late Triassic (similar to 225Ma). The material composition of the Jianshanzi volcanic rocks is characterized by different times and different tectonic backgrounds. It is comprehensively believed that the eastern segment of the northern margin of the North China block was in an active continental margin tectonic environment during the Permian, and the Palaeo-Asian Ocean subducted in both directions; Mantle -derived magma ascends and emplaces, forming a nascent crust and causing crustal thickening. The Paleo-Asian Ocean finally closed in the early Middle Triassic, and the impact of collisional orogeny may have continued until the early Late Triassic.     

Prediction of one-dimensional compression behavior of Nansha clay using fractional derivatives

Nansha clay is an interactive marine and terrestrial deposited soft clay that is widely spread in Guangzhou, Pearl River Delta, China. To avoid excessive settlement after construction, there is a need for better quantifying the time-dependent deformation of the soft clay. This paper presents a preliminary study to predict the one-dimensional compression of Nansha clay using fractional derivatives. A fractional Merchant model was introduced to describe the time-dependent settlement, and analytical solutions were obtained in terms of the Mittag-Leffler function. The oedometer test results were presented to validate this model. Compared with classical rheological models, the fractional derivative-based model enabled close estimation of the one-dimensional compression with fewer parameters. The meaning of the order of fractional derivative and its relationship with the clay physical properties were explored. It shows that a smaller value of this order corresponded to a higher coefficient of consolidation and a lower coefficient of secondary consolidation. The amplitude of both the primary and secondary consolidation of clay may be estimated quantitatively by the order of fractional derivative. Taken together, these results may open up new avenues for theoretical and empirical modeling of rheological phenomena in clay using fractional derivatives.