金沙江下段河槽地貌特征与地貌过程*

文章利用金沙江河谷地貌调查与水利工程选址勘察地质资料,根据河槽纵剖面与18个河谷横剖面的资料以及攀枝花金江河段、会理鱼鲊河段、元谋龙街河段、禄劝凹嘎河段的阶地调查结果,对金沙江下段河槽地貌进行了初步分析,金沙江下段的河谷为典型的深切"V"形河谷,在虎跳峡、乌东德、白鹤滩峡谷段河槽比降发生明显变化。根据河谷阶地下切幅度与形成时代,以T₃阶地计算金沙江下段河槽平均下切速率达到0.71~1.18m/ka,以T₂阶地计算金沙江下段河槽平均下切速率为0.75~1.36m/ka,因此,近十几万年来,金沙江下段河谷平均下切速率达到0.9~1.0m/ka。现代金沙江河槽底部均堆积了一定厚度的冲积-崩积物覆盖层,最厚的石鼓剖面河床底部冲积物盖层达到173m,一般河段堆积物盖层均达10m以上。金沙江河槽的迁移是河槽下切过程与岸坡崩塌过程综合作用的结果,形成原河槽崩塌阻塞,河槽被动迁移或原河槽改道下切,形成古河槽-离堆山-新河槽的地貌组合,以及河槽侧向迁移3种模式。     

Impact of global warming on drought in China

Spatial and temporal change patterns of air temperature (T), precipitation (P), relative humidity (RH), lower vapor pressure (VP), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and drought situation of 690 meteorological stations for all of China were evaluated in this study to understand the effects of warming on regional drought and hydrological processes. Here, the drought extent is expressed by aridity index (AI), which is the ratio of precipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) calculated by FAO Penman-Monteith equation, taking into account air temperature, atmospheric humidity, solar radiation, and wind. Our results indicate that there are different patterns of climate change from 1961 to 2008 and from 1981 to 2008. Little precipitation change occurred in China and ET₀ decreased from 1961 to 2008. But, the warming trend has intensified and the area with significant increasing precipitation has reduced since the early 1980’s and ET₀ has increased in most areas of China from 1981 to 2008 and decreased from 1961 to 2008. The areas affected by drought have shifted from North China and Northeast China to East China and South China since 1981. It is speculated that the increasing warming intensity after 1981 possibly strengthened the power of potential evapotranspiration and resulted in drought in most areas of Northeast China, North China, eastern Southwest China, and especially in East China and South China.     

Human-induced change in sedimentary trace metals and phosphorus in Chaohu Lake,China, over the past half-millennium

We present a sedimentary geochemical record of human perturbation in the watershed and related changes in trace metals (Cr, Ni, Zn and Pb), phosphorus and abundant rock-forming elements (Al, Fe, K, Mg, etc.) in Chaohu Lake over the past 500 years, a period spanning historical agricultural expansion and modern economic development. The record exhibited a stable terrestrial detrital input to Chaohu Lake before ca. 1540 AD, a period with less human perturbation of the watershed, which resulted in low and constant values of trace metals and phosphorus (TP) concentrations as well as Al, Fe, K, Mg, fine silt (<16 μm), the chemical index of alteration (CIA) and K/Na ratio. Two periods of successive marked increases in Al, Fe, K, Mg, fine silt, chemical index of alteration (CIA) and K/Na ratio occurred after ca. 1540 AD and 1950 AD. The former period apparently resulted from enhanced well-weathered topsoil erosion in the watershed related to the expansion of arable land, and the latter resulted from further enhancement of human perturbation in the watershed during the modern period. Concentrations of trace metals and TP were positively correlated with that of the rock-forming elements and fine silt. Trace metal pollution was limited during 1540–1950 AD, according to the low enrichment factors (EFs = 0.8–1.1), when an increase in trace metal concentrations was also linked to changes in detrital input. In addition to detrital regulation, pollution also contributed to an increase in TP concentrations (average EF 1.4) during 1540–1950 AD and the average accumulation rate of anthropogenic phosphorus was 87.3 mg m⁻² a⁻¹. Anthropogenic phosphorus increased further and Pb and Zn pollution also occurred after 1950 AD, reaching maximum values after 1980 AD, when the average accumulation rates of anthropogenic Zn, Pb and phosphorus (mainly in the form of NaOH-P) were 242.2, 43.3 and 811.8 mg m⁻² a⁻¹, respectively. The increase in phosphorus pollution in recent decades is probably from the domestic sewage sources of Hefei City and non-point sources related to agricultural utilization of commercial fertilizer, whereas Zn and Pb pollution is probably derived mainly from industrial sources of Hefei City, as deduced from their spatial variations in the sediments of the river mouths.     

长治高温气候特征及分析预报

通过对长治市1977年-2004年6月-8月出现≥35℃的高温天气的地理分布特征、时间和强度等统计研究,给出了高温天气的气候背景。从500hPa高空形势分析,归纳出造成高温天气的四种主要环流形势（两槽一脊型、纬向环流型、大陆暖高型、副高控制型）;分析了风、云、降水等气象要素与高温天气的内在联系。通过850hPa高温预报指标站的选取及数值预报产品的统计分析,给出了高温天气的综合性预报模型。     

淮北地区2010年4月异常低温气候特征及成因分析

利用1961—2010年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和4月淮北地区气温资料,用累积距平(CA)法、合成分析法对淮北地区气温的时空分布特征以及2010年4月淮北地区持续冷气候背景进行分析。文章分析了淮北地区4月冷、暖年的大气环流异常及要素场的空间分布特征。结果表明:淮北地区4月气温的年代际变化特征明显,在1990年前后发生了突变。贝加尔湖南部,100°E以东的华北地区中低层的冷空气活动与淮北地区4月气温高低存在很好的相关性,该地中低层冷空气强(弱),淮北地区4月气温低(高)。冷暖年,乌拉尔山暖脊、东亚大槽、西伯利亚高压等差异显著,说明以上是影响淮北地区4月气温异常的关键系统。另据分析,El Nino与淮北地区4月气温异常也具有很好的相关性。     

近实时公共气象服务分析图网站发布

给出一种基于开源IDV工具构建气象产品网站发布平台的设计思路和实现方法。近实时公共气象服务分析图将使用人员定位于浏览器端县乡级气象、农技、公众群体,突出分析图的时空分级覆盖、耕作层气象服务、山地气象服务和灾害气象服务。通过内容、时间、区域以及表现形式4个方面的分解,描述了网站的设计原理。通过本体技术实现气象要素向气象知识的过渡。通过图形产品的静态和动态层分别处理,提高了二维和三维图形产品的生成速度。构建形成的气象产品发布平台已经在多个网站得到应用并得到好评。     

2007和2008年夏季北京奥运馆大气PM10与PM2.5质量浓度变化特征

为了监测北京奥运主场馆附近大气颗粒物的污染状况以及评估奥运污染源减排措施对北京大气颗粒物质量浓度变化的影响,利用颗粒物在线监测仪器TEOM于2007年和2008年夏季,在奥运主场馆附近的中国科学院遥感应用研究所办公楼楼顶对大气颗粒物PM₁₀和PM_2.5进行了连续同步观测。结果表明,2007年夏季监测点附近大气PM₁₀与PM_2.5质量浓度的平均值分别为153.9和71.2μg·m^-3,而2008年夏季PM₁₀与PM_2.5质量浓度的平均值分别为85.2和52.8μg·m^-3。与奥运前一年同时段相比,奥运时段大气PM₁₀和PM_2.5的质量浓度分别下降44.5%和25.1%。对比分析奥运前后的2次典型污染过程发现,空气相对湿度的增加和偏南气流输送的共同影响易造成大气颗粒物的累积增长,而降雨的湿清除作用和偏北气流则会使大气颗粒物浓度迅速降低。在相近的气象条件下,奥运前后的污染过程中,大气细粒子的日均增长速率分别为25.1和13.9μg·m^-3·d^-1,而大气粗粒子的日均增长速率分别为20.8和2.2μg·m^-3·d^-1,奥运时段污染累积过程中大气粗、细粒子的增长速率分别显著低于和略低于奥运前同时段污染过程中颗粒物的增长速率。污染源减排措施的实施是奥运期间大气颗粒物质量浓度降低的主要原因,从控制效果来看,奥运期间实施的污染源减排措施对大气粗粒子的控制效果明显好于大气细粒子。     

全球GNSS掩星计划进展

主要介绍了国际上GNSS掩星计划（包括GPS／MET、Orsted、Sunsat、SAC-C、CHAMP、GRACE、FedSat、COSMIC、METOP和ACE＋计划）发展现状、科学任务及系统组成、取得的进展以及未来的发展趋势。通过总结指出,自GPS／MET计划实施后,掩星探测技术逐步完善并向业务化运用迈出了一大步;今后GNSS掩星探测将向多星探测和混合探测方向发展,国际化合作成为项目的开发和研制趋势     

早稻产量综合动态预报方法研究

利用湖南省早稻产量与发育期、日最高气温、日最低气温、日降水量和日日照时数等资料及早稻生理气象指标,在丰歉气象影响指数动态预报方法的基础上,引进早稻生育期内对产量有较大影响的关键气象因子,建立了早稻产量综合动态预报方法.结果表明,该方法在早稻产量增减趋势预报和定量预报上,正(准)确率都有所提高.     

Spatio-temporal Variability Sea Level Pressure （SLP） the Mid-to-Low Reaches of Northern Hemipheric and Precipitation over of the Yangtze River

The spatio-temporal variability of Northern Hemisphere Sea Level Pressure （SLP） and precipitation over the mid-to-low reaches of the Yangtze River （PMLY） is analyzed jointly using the multi-taper/singular value decomposition method （MTM-SVD）. Statistically significant narrow frequency bands are obtained from the local fractional variance （LFV） spectrum. Significant interdecadal （i.e., 16-to-18-year periods） and interannual （i.e., 3-to-6-year periods） signals are identified. Moreover, a significant quasi-biennial signal is identified but only for PMLY data. The spatial joint evolution of patterns obtained for peaks in the LFV spectrum sheds light on relationships between SLP and PMLY： the Arctic Oscillation （AO） modulates the variability of the PMLY while the interannual variability of PMLY is in phase with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and the Northern Pacific Oscillation （NPO）.