1990—2019年新疆不同等级风灾变化特征

风灾对新疆农牧业生产造成极大危害。本研究以风灾造成的倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、死亡人数、农作物受灾面积、损坏大棚数、牲畜死亡数作为6大灾情要素,运用比值权重和无量纲化线性求和方法构建表达风灾事件强弱的灾损指数,并采用百分位数法将风灾事件的强度划分为一般（1级）、较重（2级）、严重（3级）、特重（4级）4个等级。根据灾损指数和灾害等级,研究新疆风灾的时空变化特征。结果表明：新疆风灾集中于4—5月,南疆多于北疆,吐鲁番盆地和塔里木盆地北部是风灾的多发区和重发区;近30年风灾年出现次数呈显著的线性增加趋势,年灾损指数没有表现出线性增加或减少的变化趋势,其中1～4级风灾的年际变化具有明显的差异性;引发1～4级风灾的极大风速阈值分别为12.9、13.7、14.1、15.0 m〖DK〗·s-1;超过12.9 m〖DK〗·s-1极大风速出现日数逐年增多,加之农牧业生产快速发展,导致风灾年出现次数不断增加。     

四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区腋芽萌发期气象适宜度

以四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区为研究区,基于气象条件对腋芽萌发期再生稻生长发育的影响机理,采用结构方程模型探明了腋芽萌发的影响因素、影响路径及影响强度。进一步结合隶属函数和层次分析法,构建了再生稻腋芽萌发气象适宜度模型,并分析了1981—2021年研究区腋芽萌发期气象影响因素及气象适宜度的变化特征。结果表明：气温、空气湿度、降水是四川盆地东部再生稻高温伏旱区腋芽萌发的关键影响因素,基于以上因素的气象适宜度模型能较好地评价再生稻腋芽萌发期的气象影响。1981—2021年研究区气温适宜度、空气湿度适宜度及综合气象适宜度均呈下降趋势,降水适宜度没有表现出明显的变化趋势。气温适宜度、空气湿度适宜度及综合气象适宜度总体呈“西高东低”的空间分布特征,降水适宜度则表现为“东西高、中部低”。1981—2021年研究区气温上升趋势与空气湿度下降趋势显著,导致致害高温（日平均气温≥32℃）积温和致害低湿（日平均相对湿度≤65％）日数明显增加,这是再生稻腋芽萌发期气象适宜度总体呈下降趋势的诱因。     

Analysis of the contributions of topographic,soil, and vegetation features on the spatial distributions of surface soil moisture in a steep natural forested headwater catchment

Surface soil moisture has been extensively studied for various land uses and landforms. Although many studies have reported potential factors that control surface soil moisture over space or time, the findings have not always been consistent, indicating a need for identification of the main factors. This study focused on the static controls of topographic, soil, and vegetation features on surface soil moisture in a steep natural forested headwater catchment consisting of three hillslope units of a gully area, side slope, and valley‐head slope. Using a simple correlation analysis to investigate the effects of the static factors on surface soil moisture at depths of 0–20 cm at 470 points in 13 surveys, we addressed the characteristics of surface soil moisture and its main controlling factors. The results indicated that the mean of surface soil moisture was in the decreasing order of gully area > valley‐head slope > side slope. The relationship between the mean and standard deviation of surface soil moisture showed a convex‐upward shape in the headwater catchment, a negative curvilinear shape in the gully area, and positive curvilinear shapes at the side and valley‐head slopes. At the headwater catchment and valley‐head slope, positive contributions of soil porosity and negative contributions of slope gradient and saturated hydraulic conductivity were the main controlling factors of surface soil moisture under wetter conditions, whereas positive contributions of topographic wetness index and negative contributions of vegetation density were the main controlling factors of surface soil moisture under drier conditions. At the side slope underlain by fractured bedrocks, only saturated hydraulic conductivity and vegetation density were observed to be the controlling factors. Surface soil moisture in the gully area was mainly affected by runoff rather than were static features. Thus, using hillslope units is effective for approximately estimating the hydrological behaviours of surface moisture on a larger scale, whereas dependency between the main static factors and moisture conditions is helpful for estimating the spatial distributions of surface moisture on a smaller scale.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source pollution in the Xizhi River watershed,Guangdong, China

The Annualized Agricultural Non‐point Source (AnnAGNPS) pollution model has been widely used to assess and predict runoff, soil erosion, sediment and nutrient loading with a geographic information system. This article presents a case study of the effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution using the AnnAGNPS model in the Xizhi River watershed, eastern Pearl River Delta of Guangdong province, China. The land‐use changes in the Xizhi River watershed between 1998 and 2003 were examined using the multitemporal remote sensing data. The runoff, soil erosion, sediment transport and nutrient loading 1998 and 2003 were assessed using AnnAGNPS. The effects of land‐use changes on NPS were studied by comparing the simulation results of each year. Our results showed that (i) the NPS loadings increased when forest and grass land converted into paddy, orchard and farmland land, and population size and gross domestic product size as well as the usage amounts of fertilizer and pesticide in the entire watershed were firmly correlated with the NPS loadings; (ii) the land‐use change during fast urbanization in particular when other land types were converted into the development land and buildup land led to increasing of NPS pollution; and (iii) urban land expansion showed more important effects on total organic carbon (TOC) loading compared with nitrogen and phosphorus loadings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coupled finite‐element simulation of injection well testing in unconsolidated oil sands reservoir

This paper presents a finite‐element (FE) model for simulating injection well testing in unconsolidated oil sands reservoir. In injection well testing, the bottom‐hole pressure (BHP) is monitored during the injection and shut‐in period. The flow characteristics of a reservoir can be determined from transient BHP data using conventional reservoir or well‐testing analysis. However, conventional reservoir or well‐testing analysis does not consider geomechanics coupling effects. This simplified assumption has limitations when applied to unconsolidated (uncemented) oil sands reservoirs because oil sands deform and dilate subjected to pressure variation. In addition, hydraulic fracturing may occur in unconsolidated oil sands when high water injection rate is used. This research is motivated in numerical modeling of injection well testing in unconsolidated oil sands reservoir considering the geomechanics coupling effects including hydraulic fracturing. To simulate the strong anisotropy in mechanical and hydraulic behaviour of unconsolidated oil sands induced by fluid injection in injection well testing, a nonlinear stress‐dependent poro‐elasto‐plastic constitutive model together with a strain‐induced anisotropic permeability model are formulated and implemented into a 3D FE simulator. The 3D FE model is used to history match the BHP response measured from an injection well in an oil sands reservoir. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Abrupt behaviours of streamflow and sediment load variations of the Yangtze River basin,China

Monthly sediment load and streamflow series spanning 1963–2004 from four hydrological stations situation in the main stem of the Yangtze River, China, are analysed using scanning t‐test and the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme. Results indicate significant changes in the sediment load and streamflow from the upper reach to the lower reach of the Yangtze River. Relatively consistent positive coherency relations can be detected between streamflow and sediment load in the upper reach and negative coherency in the middle and lower reaches. Interestingly, negative coherency is found mainly for larger time scales. Changes in sediment load are the result mainly of human influence; specifically, the construction of water reservoirs may be the major cause of negative coherency. Accentuating the human influence from the upper to the lower reach results in inconsistent correlations between sediment load and streamflow. Decreasing sediment load being observed in recent years has the potential to alter the topographical properties of the river channel and the consequent development and recession of the Yangtze Delta. Results of this study are of practical significance for river channel management and evaluation of the influence of human activities on the hydrological regimes of large rivers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

清江隔河岩电钻厂房超高边坡的稳定性评价

The stability evaluation on superhigh slope behind the powerhouse of Geheyan hydroelectric station over Qingjiang River is made in this paper. Engineering geological condition, new tectonic movement, and deformation observation results for the slope are analyzed. Natural angles, stable angles, and design angles of the slope are compared with each other. Limit equilibrium analysis and finite element method are used for the stability evaluation of this slope. The engineering prevention and cure of landslip hazards are also proposed in this paper.     

朝鲜安州煤矿岩岩膨胀特性试验研究

In this paper, the test results of mineral component and swelling behavior of the shale at An Zhou Coal Mine, D.P.R.Korea are introduced. The results showed that the shale has properties of high unit weight, low porosity and high content of hydrophilic clay mineral. With such properties, it will have large swell and high swelling force to the support of the project. Therefore it is considered that the effective measure to prevent unstable of the surrounding rock may be reducing disturbance and changes of water content. This paper is the first achievement in cooperation research between the colleagues of our institute and Institute of Rock Mechanics Academia Korea.