Investigation of inner-basin variation: Impact of large reservoirs on water regimes of downstream water bodies

Large dams and reservoirs alter not only the natural flow regimes of streams and rivers but also their flooding cycles and flood magnitudes. Although the effect of dams and reservoirs has been reported for some vulnerable locations, the understanding of the inner-basin variation with respect to the effects remains limited. In this study, we analyse the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) built on the Changjiang mainstream (Yangtze River) to investigate the dam effect variations in the system of interconnected water bodies located downstream. We investigated the effect of flow alterations along the downstream river network using discharge time series at different gauging stations. The river–lake interactions (referring to the interactions between the Changjiang mainstream and its tributary lakes i.e. the Dongting and Poyang lakes) and their roles in modifying the TGD effect intensity were also investigated in the large-scale river–lake system. The results show that the water storage of the tributary lakes decreased after the activation of the TGD. Severe droughts occurred in the lakes, weakening their ability to recharge the Changjiang mainstream. As a consequence, the effect of the TGD on the Changjiang flow increase during the dry season diminished quickly downstream of the dam, whereas its impact on the flow decrease during the wet season gradually exacerbated along the mainstream, especially at sites located downstream of the lake outlets. Therefore, when assessing dam-induced hydrological changes, special attention should be paid to the changes in the storage of tributary lakes and the associated effects in the mainstream. This is of high importance for managing the water resource trade-offs between different water bodies in dam-affected riverine systems.     

Convective stability analysis of the long-term storage of carbon dioxide in deep saline aquifers

Deep saline aquifers are one of the most suitable geologic formations for carbon sequestration. The linear and global stability analysis of the time-dependent density-driven convection in deep saline aquifers is presented for long-term storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂). The convective mixing that can greatly accelerate the CO₂ dissolution into saline aquifers arises because the density of brine increases upon the dissolution of CO₂ and such a density difference may induce instability. The effects of anisotropic permeability on the stability criteria, such as the critical time for the appearance of convective phenomena and the critical wavelength of the most unstable perturbation, are investigated with linear and global stability analysis. The linear stability analysis provides a sufficient condition for instability while the global stability analysis yields a sufficient condition for stability. The results obtained from these two approaches are not exactly the same but show a consistent trend, both indicating that the anisotropic system becomes more unstable when either the vertical or horizontal permeability increases.     

Two-dimensional landslide dynamic simulation based on a velocity-weakening friction law

Surprisingly, hypermobility (high velocity and long run-out) is a remarkable feature of large landslides and is still poorly understood. In this paper, a velocity-weakening friction law is incorporated into a depth-averaged landslide model for explaining the higher mobility mechanism of landslides. In order to improve the precision of the calculation, a coupled numerical method based on the finite volume method is proposed to solve the model equations. Finally, several numerical tests are performed to verify the stability of the algorithm and reliability of the model. The comparison between numerical results and experimental data indicates that the presented model can predict the movement of landslide accurately. Considering the effect of velocity-weakening friction law, the presented model can better reflect the hypermobility of landslide than the conventional Mohr–Coulomb friction model. This work shows that the application of a universal velocity-weakening friction law is effective in describing the hypermobility of landslide and predicting the extent of landslides.     

月尺度降水可预报性的实验研究

利用信噪方差比探讨了山东省月尺度降水可预报性,发现２～３月、９～１０月不可预报,其它月份可预报性强。一般大气环流系统冬夏转换季节可预报性差。与１３个代表站预报评分进行了比较,发现可预报性指数越高,则实际预报评分也相对较高,两者有较好的对应关系。     

AN ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN SLOPE OF THE KUNLUN MOUNTAINS

ＡＮＡＮＡＬＹＳＩＳＯＦＷＡＴＥＲＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＣＨＡＲＡＣＴＥＲＩＳＴＩＣＳＯＦＴＨＥＲＩＶＥＲＳＩＮＴＨＥＮＯＲＴＨＥＲＮＳＬＯＰＥＯＦＴＨＥＫＵＮＬＵＮＭＯＵＮＴＡＩＮＳＸｕＹｏｕｐｅｎｇ（许有鹏）；ＧａｏＹｕｎｊｕｅ（高蕴珏）（Ｄｅｐａｒｔ...     

农业对气候变化的脆弱性

随着对气候变化研究的不断深入,气候变化脆弱性问题也得到了更多的关注。相对于水资源、森林等其他自然生态系统,农业受气候变化的影响最大,科学地评价其对气候变化的脆弱性,对于制定合理有效的适应对策具有重要意义。从气候变化脆弱性与农业对气候变化脆弱性的定义、研究内容和评价方法等角度综述了研究进展,在此基础上分析了目前该领域存在的问题,包括情景应用、方法和不确定性等方面,并展望了未来脆弱性评价的发展方向。     

预啁啾和脉冲沿锐度对光脉冲线性传输的影响

从忽略光纤非线性效应的光脉冲非线性薛定谔方程出发,在光纤正色散区,利用傅立叶变换和反傅立叶变换模拟了不同初始啁啾的二阶与四阶超高斯光脉冲波形随距离的三维演化.分析讨论了脉冲沿锐度以及脉冲预啁啾对脉冲波形演化的综合影响.结果表明:不论脉冲有无预啁啾,光脉冲波形最终都将随着传输距离的增大而展宽.但是负预啁啾将使脉冲波形在脉冲传输的初始阶段发生严重的畸变,即脉冲会分裂成尖峰结构,并且尖峰的数目和能量分布随距离而变.而当预啁啾为正或零时,脉冲前期的畸变很弱.随着脉冲沿锐度的增大,脉冲畸变会加强.此外,在脉冲的前后边缘会出现矮小的峰.整个脉冲波形都是中心对称的.     

Human settlement evaluation in mountain areas based on remote sensing, GIS and ecological niche modeling

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the world’s highest and largest plateau. Due to increasing demands for environment exploration and tourism, a large transitional area is required for altitude adaptation. Hehuang valley, which locates in the transition zone between the Loess Plateau and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has convenient transportation and relatively low elevation. Our question is whether the geographic conditions here are appropriate for adapted stay before going into the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, in this study, we examined the potential use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) for mapping current and potential distribution patterns of human settlements. We chose the Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent), an ENM which integrates climate, remote sensing and geographical data, to model distributions and assess land suitability for transition areas. After preprocessing and selection, the correlation between variables and spatial autocorrelation input data were removed and 106 occurrence points and 9 environmental layers were determined as the model inputs. The threshold-independent model performance was reasonable according to 10 times model running, with the area under the curve (AUC) values being 0.917 ± 0.01, and 0.923 ± 0.002 for test data. Cohen’s kappa coefficient of model performance was 0.848. Results showed that 82.22% of the study extent was not suitable for human settlement. Of the remaining areas, highly suitable areas accounted for 1.19%, moderately for 5.3% and marginally for 11.28%. These suitable areas totaled 418.79 km², and 86.25% of the sample data was identified in the different gradient of suitable area. The decisive environmental factors were slope and two climate variables: mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality. Our model showed a good performance in mapping and assessing human settlements. This study provides the first predicted potential habitat distribution map for human settlement in Ledu County, which could also help in land use management.     

渤海盆地现代构造应力场与强震活动

渤海位于北华北新生代裂陷盆地的东部,是一个晚第四纪形成的内陆海盆. 渤海盆地活动断裂发育,地震活动强烈,交会于渤海中部的NE向营口——潍坊断裂带北段、庙西北——黄河口——临邑断裂带及NW向北京——蓬莱断裂带是主要的活动构造带,将海区分成4个次级新构造区,成为现代应力场作用的构造基础. 综合研究38个震源机制解和75个井区应力场等资料,以及构造应力场二维数值模拟计算结果表明,渤海及其邻区现代构造应力场的压应力方向为NE60～90,张应力为SN——NW30;以水平和近水平应力作用为主;不同构造区主应力方向存在一定的差异. 现今渤海地区地壳发育以NNE——NE和NW——WNW走向的共轭剪切破裂为特征,是控制地震活动的主要构造.     

企业地震预警系统应用研究

在充分调研国外地震预警系统现状的基础上，进行了地震预警系统的研究，研制了相应的数据分析软件。采用数字化观测技术、GIS技术等高新技术，在中国石油天然气股份有限公司大连分公司建立了地震预警试验系统，并将该地震预警系统与地震应急系统相连，为今后开展类似工作积累了经验。