Comparison of ionospheric characteristic parameters obtained by GPS and ionosonde with IRI model over China

This paper presents a comparison of ionospheric characteristic parameters obtained by a GPS network and three ionosondes at Mohe (122.4^°E, 53.5^°N, dip angle 70.983^°N), Zuolingzhen (114.6^°E, 30.5^°N, dip angle 46.350^°N), and Fuke (109.1^°E, 19.5^°N, dip angle 27.083^°N) located in China with an IRI model in the year 2011. Observed NmF2 and hmF2 values at the three stations are compared with IRI2007 and IRI2012 predictions, respectively. The results show that there are clear linear correlations between the observed values and the IRI model predicted values. The IRI model gives overestimations at the three stations mostly in 2011. For the NmF2 and hmF2 values, most of the results show that the IRI2012 predicted values are closer to the observed values compared with those of IRI2007. Additionally, the GPS TEC values derived from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are compared with the IRI2012 predictions. From the results, it is evident that the IRI2012 model predictions follow the normal trend of diurnal variation of GPS measured TEC monthly means but do not reproduce the measured data well. The IRI2012 model overestimates electron density in the latter part of spring as well as the first half of autumn and winter and underestimates electron density in early spring and the latter part of autumn. Referring to GPS TEC, the precision of the IRI2012 model predicted TEC values is ～5 TECU over China. It may also be noted that there are two discontinuities of IRI-TEC monthly means appearing in November and December of the year 2011. This brings a bias of ～3 TECU of TEC values between two adjacent months.     

川北旺苍唐家河剖面仙女洞组灰泥丘沉积特征及造丘环境分析

目前川北地区早寒武世微生物藻与古杯参与的生物礁(丘)发育特征存在较大争议。通过实测剖面与镜下分析,川北旺苍县鼓城乡唐家河剖面仙女洞组发育三期灰泥丘。对该剖面灰泥丘沉积特征进行精细研究认为:第一期灰泥丘发育在滑塌角砾灰岩之上,造丘生物主要为枝状和房室状附枝藻,主要岩性为砾屑灰岩、藻格架凝块灰岩和含云生物碎屑灰岩,发育丘基、丘核、丘盖和丘翼,后期演化为钙质砂泥岩结束生长。第二期生物丘发育在鲕粒滩间生屑灰岩之上,造丘生物主要为肾状藻,次为附枝藻,主要岩性为生物碎屑灰岩、藻格架凝块灰岩、漂浮砾岩和亮晶鲕粒灰岩,纵向上发育丘基、丘核、丘坪、丘盖和丘翼,最终再度沉积鲕粒灰岩。第三期灰泥丘发育在藻叠层灰岩之上,造丘生物为古杯和微生物藻,岩性主要为古杯灰岩、生物碎屑泥晶灰岩、藻格架凝块灰岩和藻叠层灰岩,发育丘基、丘核和丘盖。进一步分析三期灰泥丘的成丘环境认为第一期灰泥丘属于台缘斜坡环境内的斜坡灰泥丘低能沉积,经历三个演化阶段;第二期属于台地边缘灰泥丘,经历四期演化阶段;第三期为台缘高能鲕粒滩向陆一侧能量相对较低的台缘古杯灰泥丘沉积,经历三个演化阶段。剖面中灰泥丘多与鲕粒滩共存,构成丘滩复合体,为后期研究储集性能和油气富集关系具有重要的油气地质意义。     

渝东南下古生界页岩构造裂缝形成及分布控制因素

天然裂缝对页岩气储集和渗流有重要影响,但目前对页岩构造裂缝研究不够深入。本文通过露头、岩心裂缝观察和分析,探讨了渝东南下古生界页岩构造裂缝类型、形成机理及分布控制因素。基于裂缝特征及力学成因,将剪切裂缝分为高角度剪切裂缝、倾斜滑脱裂缝和水平滑脱裂缝。倾斜滑脱裂缝是在上覆岩层重力和水平构造应力共同作用下沿应力集中的软弱面发生剪切滑动形成,水平滑脱裂缝是在构造挤压应力作用条件下主要沿页理面方向的剪切或层间滑动形成;页理发育程度及岩层曲率是控制水平滑脱裂缝形成的关键因素,岩石矿物组成、构造作用及岩层厚度是控制其它类型构造裂缝形成和分布的主要因素,页岩岩石力学层的划分需要根据裂缝特征、岩性变化特征、岩石力学参数及沉积界面等综合确定,岩层厚度与层间构造裂缝密度呈负相关关系。     

中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究

基于中国1960-2014年771个气象站的逐日降水资料,选取有效降水序列95百分位数作为极端降水阈值,将既定持续时间尺度和连续面积上超过阈值的降水事件定义为区域性极端降水事件。采用强度-面积-持续时间（Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD）法,根据极端降水事件空间和时间上的连续性特征,对不同持续时间的区域性极端降水事件演变趋势及暴露于极端降水事件下的人口和国内生产总值进行研究。结果表明:（1）相对强度最大的区域性极端降水事件主要集中在1960-1968、1991-1999和2006-2013年3个时段;（2）区域性极端降水事件最强中心主要分布在长江以南和东北地区,发生在北方的多为单日极端降水,南方多为持续多日的极端降水;（3）1960-2014年区域性极端降水事件影响面积有所增大,相对强度变化不明显;（4）暴露于极端降水事件影响区域内的人口和国内生产总值均呈显著增大趋势,暴露人口最多的年份在1983年,达到2408万人/d,暴露国内生产总值最多的年份在1998年,达到20亿元/d。      

How Officers Create Guardianship: An Agent‐based Model of Policing

Crime is a complex phenomenon, emerging from the interactions of offenders, victims, and their environment, and in particular from the presence or absence of capable guardians. Researchers have historically struggled to understand how police officers create guardianship. This presents a challenge because, in order to understand how to advise the police, researchers must have an understanding of how the current system works. The work presents an agent‐based model that simulates the movement of police vehicles, using a record of real calls for service and real levels of police staffing in spatially explicit environments to emulate the demands on the police force. The GPS traces of the simulated officers are compared with real officer movement GPS data in order to assess the quality of the generated movement patterns. The model represents an improvement on existing standards of police simulation, and points the way toward more nuanced understandings of how police officers influence the criminological environment.     

Laboratory Estimation of Rock Joint Stiffness and Frictional Parameters

Numerical modeling of complex rock engineering problems involves the use of various input parameters which control usefulness of the output results. Hence, it is of utmost importance to select the right range of input physical and mechanical parameters based on laboratory or field estimation, and engineering judgment. Joint normal and shear stiffnesses are two popular input parameters to describe discontinuities in rock, which do not have specific guidelines for their estimation in literature. This study attempts to provide simple methods to estimate joint normal and shear stiffnesses in the laboratory using the uniaxial compression and small-scale direct shear tests. Samples have been prepared using rocks procured from different depths, geographical locations and formations. The study uses a mixture of relatively smooth natural joints and saw-cut joints in the various rock samples tested. The results indicate acceptable levels of uncertainty in the calculation of the stiffness parameters and provide a database of good first estimates and empirical relations which can be used for calculating values for joint stiffnesses when laboratory estimation is not possible. Joint basic friction angles have also been estimated as by-products in the small scale direct shear tests.