一次造成乌鲁木齐市电网瑶线铁塔倒塌事故的气象原因分析

为了解2004年11月24日乌鲁木齐市两座电网瑶线铁塔倒塌事故的气象原因，通过实地调查，并对高低空环流形势场、加密气象站信息等进行了分析。结果表明，乌鲁木齐地区不同地理位置风速差异很大，红雁池和头屯河区瞬间极大风速分别比市区大12．8m／s和18．4m／s。纠正了过去认为东南大风的强中心只出现在红雁池附近的说法，为今后制作大风分区预报提供了参考，也可为城区高层建筑及相关设计规范的修正提供借鉴。     

夏季青藏高原加热和北半球环流年际变化的相关分析

利用 195 8～ 1997年NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集中加热率和环流资料 ,采用相关分析和对比分析相结合的方法 ,诊断和分析了夏季青藏高原的非绝热加热与北半球环流系统的年际变化的联系。分析结果表明 :夏季青藏高原的加热强 (弱 )的年份 ,高原及邻近地区的上升运动、下层辐合及上层辐散均增强 (减弱 ) ,使高原加热对周边地区低层暖湿空气的抽吸效应和对高层大气向周边地区的排放作用加强 (减弱 )。从而影响着高原和周边地区的环流以及亚洲季风区大尺度环流系统。而且高原的加热强迫能够激发产生一支沿亚欧大陆东部海岸向东北方向传播的Rossby波列 ,其频散效应可影响到更远的东太平洋以至北美地区的大气环流     

土壤热异常影响地表能量平衡的个例分析和数值模拟

The statistical relationship between soil thermal anomaly and short-term climate change is presented based on a typical case study. Furthermore, possible physical mechanisms behind the relationship are revealed through using an off-line land surface model with a reasonable soil thermal forcing at the bottom of the soil layer.In the first experiment, the given heat flux is 5 W m-2 at the bottom of the soil layer (in depth of 6.3 m)for 3 months, while only a positive ground temperature anomaly of 0.06℃ can be found compared to the control run. The anomaly, however, could reach 0.65℃ if the soil thermal conductivity was one order of magnitude larger. It could be even as large as 0.81℃ assuming the heat flux at bottom is 10 W m-2. Meanwhile, an increase of about 10 W m-2 was detected both for heat flux in soil and sensible heat on land surface, which is not neglectable to the short-term climate change. The results show that considerable response in land surface energy budget could be expected when the soil thermal forcing reaches a certain spatial-tem poral scale. Therefore, land surface models should not ignore the upward heat flux from the bottom of the soil layer. Moreover, integration for a longer period of time and coupled land-atmosphere model are also necessary for the better understanding of this issue.     

近百年中国东部夏季降水的时空变率

利用中国东部25°N以北28个站1880-1999年夏季季降水序列,用旋转复经验正交函数（RCEOF）方法,研究了中国东部地区百年干湿的时空演变规律。结果表明,夏季降水空间变率大值区依次为:长江中下游地区、淮河流域、江南、华北、西南及东北。除西南外的5个关键区大体上反映了从6月到8月夏季雨带自南向北椎进所滞留的地区。旋转空间位相分布揭示了长江中下游地区、江南、东北的旱涝异常主要表现为驻波振动特征;而淮河流域、华北、西南地区显示出降水异常信号具有部分的行波特征。尤其第4空间模显示出旱涝异常信号从东北南部可沿着黄淮下游传到长江下游地区。对于近百年中国东部地区夏季于湿变化,长江中下游地区、淮河流域、华北及东北四个地区都存在20-25年时间尺度的周期振荡;长江中下游地区及华北地区都存在准60年时间尺度的振荡周期;东北地区主要表现出36年时间尺度的振荡周期;淮河流域存在明显的70-80年时间尺度的振荡周期;华北地区存在的11年时间尺度的振荡周期恰好与太阳黑子活动的11年周期相一致。在年代际时间尺度（包括次年代际时间尺度）上,长江中下游、淮河流域及华北地区的夏季降水的变化与太阳活动有显著的正相关。     

Distribution of seasonal rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region

Summary ?This study deals with the climatological aspect of seasonal rainfall distribution in the East Asian monsoon region, which includes China, Korea and Japan. Rainfall patterns in these three countries have been investigated, but little attention has been paid to the linkages between them. This paper has contributed to the understanding of the inter-linkage of various sub-regions. Three datasets are used. One consists of several hundred gauges from China and South Korea. The second is based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). The two sources of precipitation information are found to be consistent. The third dataset is the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 850-hPa winds. The CMAP precipitation shows that the seasonal transition over East Asia from the boreal winter to the boreal summer monsoon component occurs abruptly in mid-May. From late March to early May, the spring rainy season usually appears over South China and the East China Sea, but it is not so pronounced in Japan. The summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia commonly begins from mid-May to late May along longitudes of eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan. A strong quasi-20-day sub-seasonal oscillation in the precipitation appears to be dominant during this rainy season. The end date of the summer monsoon rainy season in eastern China and Japan occurs in late July, while the end date in the Korean Peninsula is around early August. The autumn rainy season in the Korean Peninsula has a major range from mid-August to mid-September. In southern China, the autumn rainy season prevails from late August to mid-October but a short autumn rainy season from late August to early September is noted in the lower part of the Yangtze River. In Japan, the autumn rainy season is relatively longer from mid-September to late October. The sub-seasonal rainfall oscillation in Korea, eastern China and Japan are explained by, and comparable to, the 850-hPa circulation. The strong westerly frontal zone can control the location of the Meiyu, the Changma, and the Baiu in East Asia. The reason that the seasonal sea surface temperature change in the northwestern Pacific plays a critical role in the northward advance of the onset of the summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia is also discussed. Received October 5, 2001; revised April 23, 2002; accepted May 11, 2002     

三峡库区滑坡治理工程设计中推力荷载计算方法初探

随着三峡水利工程的逐步实施，淹没区移民及新城镇建设等人类工程活动的加剧，以滑坡为主的环境地质问题日益突出。本文从稳定系数、安全系数入手，对铁道、公路等部门常用的设计计算原理进行了研究，并由此类比分析研究了三峡区回水后或库水位正常运行条件下，滑坡治理工程设计计算方法。     

泌阳凹陷安棚油田深层系成岩作用研究及其在成岩圈闭预测中的应用

深层系一般指沉积盆地中埋藏深度在2 500～2 700 m以下的地层,其储集物性普遍很差,但在一定条件下,深部溶蚀作用可产生优质储层,形成成岩圈闭.然而这种成岩圈闭的预测一直是一个难题.安棚油田位于河南泌阳凹陷东南部,勘探成果表明,在该油田深层系下第三系核桃园组核三段下部(简称(核三下)席状的扇三角洲砂体中存在成岩圈闭.本次通过定量的成岩作用研究和成岩阶段划分,对成岩圈闭的形成机理和分布进行了探讨.研究表明,该区核三下的砂体经历了压实、胶结、溶蚀等多种成岩作用,不同的成岩作用发生于不同的埋藏深度.2 700～3 100 m之间以胶结强烈为特征,属于胶结带.3 100～3 900 m之间以次生溶蚀孔隙发育为特征,尤其是3 200～3 600 m之间, 属于深部溶蚀带.本区核三下砂体自南而北埋藏深度逐渐变浅,其上倾方向处于胶结带的部分由于强烈胶结而变成致密层,可封堵油气,而下倾方向处于溶蚀带的部分由于次生溶蚀孔隙发育而成为良好储层,从而形成成岩圈闭.根据不同埋藏深度、不同成岩阶段孔隙发育和保存的特征,可预测成岩圈闭分布。     

固溶体矿物的性质对计算河南西峡红柱石矿形成条件的影响

自然界的大多数造岩矿的是由两种或多种组分混合而成的固溶体。因此，在矿物，岩石和矿床等地质体的平衡热力学研究中不可避免地要涉及固溶体矿物热力学地为的问题。河南省西峡县杨乃沟红柱石矿泥质片岩中仅出现红柱石而没有蓝晶石和夕线石，红柱石矿物包裹体测温结果为420－600℃。通过矿物共生平衡p-t曲线所计算出的片岩形成温度和压力条件也应位于上述岩石学和岩相学等特征所限定的范围内。以此为基础，通过构筑矿物共生p-t平衡曲线的方法，对片岩中若干固溶体矿物理想性／非理想性问题进行了研究。其中斜长石必须以非理想固溶体处理，而石榴子石，黑云母和白云母视作理想固溶体的计算结果同片岩的岩石学和岩相学等特征相一致。     

基于广义Kопытов模型及乙型水驱曲线的综合预测法

将广义Kопытов预测模型和乙型水驱曲线方法有机的结合起来，得到了油田开发中后期——递减时期的一种预测水驱开发油田的含水率、产油量、产水量及其相应的累积产量随开发时间变化的方法，此方法克服了在水驱油田预测开发指标中二者所存在的局限性。     

^40Ar／^39Ar Fast Neutron Activation Ages of Quartz from the Jinman Vein Copper Dposit in Western Yunnan and Their Significance

Quartz samples collected from the Jinman vein copper deposit in the Lanping Basin of western Yunnan were determined by⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar fast neutron activation techniques, and the spectra are characterized as being saddle-shaped. The samples yielded a plateau age of 58.05 ± 0.54 Ma, a minimum appearance age of 56.76 ±0.81 Ma and an isochron age of 54.30 ± 0.15 Ma, the three ages being close to each other, indicating that the ages of the quartz samples so far determined are true and reliable. The plateau age represents the time of formation of Cu-bearing quartz veins, which is corresponding to Early Himalayan. This age is also consistent with the time at which a tectonically thermal event (60 Ma) took place within the Lanping Basin, Yunnan Province. In consideration of the fact that copper ore and other ore types in the vast area of western Yunnan are concentrated mainly in the Early Himalayan strata, the authors believe that there must have existed some indispensable key factors leading to metallogenesis on a large scale during the Early Himalayan period in western Yunnan and also constraining in union the formation of ore deposits there.