Preconditioned Optimizing Utility for Large-dimensional analyses (POpULar)

I present the derivation of the Preconditioned Optimizing Utility for Large-dimensional analyses (POpULar), which is developed for adopting a non-diagonal background error covariance matrix in nonlinear variational analyses (i.e., analyses employing a non-quadratic cost function). POpULar is based on the idea of a linear preconditioned conjugate gradient method widely adopted in ocean data assimilation systems. POpULar uses the background error covariance matrix as a preconditioner without any decomposition of the matrix. This preconditioning accelerates the convergence. Moreover, the inverse of the matrix is not required. POpULar therefore allows us easily to handle the correlations among deviations of control variables (i.e., the variables which will be analyzed) from their background in nonlinear problems. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of POpULar, we illustrate two effects which are often neglected in studies of ocean data assimilation before. One is the effect of correlations among the deviations of control variables in an adjoint analysis. The other is the nonlinear effect of sea surface dynamic height calculation required when sea surface height observation is employed in a three-dimensional ocean analysis. As the results, these effects are not so small to neglect.     

长江口咸潮入侵变化特征及成因分析

本文基于海洋站潮位观测数据、海平面变化影响调查信息以及长江口水文站径流量数据等,重点分析了2009−2018年长江口咸潮入侵的变化特征及其影响因素,分析结果表明：(1)长江口咸潮入侵季节变化特征明显。咸潮一般从每年的9−10月开始入侵,翌年4−5月结束。3月咸潮入侵次数最多,达12次。2009−2018年,长江口咸潮入侵次数和咸潮持续时间均呈下降趋势,2009年长江口咸潮入侵次数最多,达13次,时间均发生在10月至翌年的4月;咸潮持续时间年际变化较大,2011年咸潮入侵持续时间最长,累计为55 d。2015−2018年,咸潮入侵次数和入侵持续时间均明显减少,2018年没有监测到咸潮入侵过程。(2) 1−4月,长江口处于季节性低海平面期,且同期径流量少,但是受东亚季风影响,持续的增水过程使得增减水−径流量综合影响指数明显偏高,其中1月、2月、3月的影响指数分别为1.5、1.9和1.6,该时段长江口的咸潮入侵过程主要受增减水的影响。5−7月,长江口径流量明显增加,海平面−径流量综合影响指数均小于0,径流的作用强于海水上溯。8月,长江口径流量开始下降,虽然季节海平面较高,但是长江口呈现明显的减水过程,海平面−径流量和增减水−径流量的综合影响指数分别为0.1和−1.6,基本不会发生咸潮入侵。9月,长江口处于季节高海平面期,并且以增水为主,海平面−径流量和增减水−径流量的综合影响指数较大,分别为1.2和1.0,易发生咸潮入侵。10月、11月长江口海平面−径流量的综合影响指数分别为1.5和0.8,径流影响弱于海水上溯,易发生咸潮入侵。(3) 2009−2018年发生的48次咸潮入侵过程有2/3恰逢天文大潮。在某些年份长江口沿海基础海平面偏高,若持续增水恰逢天文大潮,则加剧咸潮入侵的影响程度。     

圆筒型FPSO优化设计与水动力性能分析

针对圆筒型海上储油装置FPSO垂荡运动性能较差、无法安装干式井口的问题,设计了带延伸筒体与矩形阻尼结构的圆筒型FPSO,根据延伸筒体与矩形阻尼结构是否通海分为两种型式。建立水动力计算模型,比较分析不同延伸筒体和阻尼结构型式对FPSO水动力性能的影响。针对南海作业海域,设计了悬链式系泊系统,基于JONSWAP波浪谱对FPSO的运动进行时域预报,并对系泊系统进行校核。分析结果表明:通海型FPSO垂荡固有周期显著提升,可以错开南海百年一遇谱峰周期,通海型FPSO满足钻井、安装干式井口的运动响应要求,系泊系统系缆张力满足规范要求。     

Screening and ranking framework for geologic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> storage site selection on the basis of health,safety, and environmental risk

A screening and ranking framework (SRF) has been developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage sites on the basis of health, safety, and environmental (HSE) risk arising from CO₂ leakage. The approach is based on the assumption that CO₂ leakage risk is dependent on three basic characteristics of a geologic CO₂ storage site: (1) the potential for primary containment by the target formation; (2) the potential for secondary containment if the primary formation leaks; and (3) the potential for attenuation and dispersion of leaking CO₂ if the primary formation leaks and secondary containment fails. The framework is implemented in a spreadsheet in which users enter numerical scores representing expert opinions or published information along with estimates of uncertainty. Applications to three sites in California demonstrate the approach. Refinements and extensions are possible through the use of more detailed data or model results in place of property proxies.     

烟威及石岛近海春季水团分析

本文使用1960—1980年春季的水文资料,以温度和盐度作为主要指标,根据聚类分析逼近温盐图解,结合对该海域地理环境特征的分析,对烟台、威海及石岛近海春季的水团结构演变及其和渔场、渔期的关系进行综合分析。结果表明,北黄海及青岛外海的冷水团,以及黄海暖水团的强度与位置的变动,对春季渔期的早迟以及渔场位置的变动,都有很大的影响。     

三次样条函数在海洋水文资料整理中的应用

本文引入三次样条函数插值法,并尝试用于海洋资料处理。根据渤海及北黄海部分海洋站的历史资料进行了试验。用SHARP—PC—1211袖珍计算机进行计算,并将资料处理的结果与传统的过程曲线法订正值作了比较。结果表明,二者之间的误差不大,而样条函数拟合更好。作者认为三次样条函数插值法是可行的,在处理海洋资料时间序列中是有效的。在有温跃层的地方,如何应用,本文也给出了必要的说明。     

Prediction of Load Carrying Capacity of Corroded Reinforced Concrete Beam

A novel method for prediction of the load carrying capacity of a corroded reinforced concrete beam (CRCB) is presented in the paper. Nine reinforced concrete beams, which had been working in an aggressive environment for more than 10 years, were tested in the laboratory. Comprehensive tests, including flexural test, strength test for corroded concrete and rusty rebar, and pullout test for bond strength between concrete and rebar, were condueted. The flexural test results of CRCBs reveal that the distribution of surface cracks on the beams shows a fractal behavior. The relationship between the fractal dimensions and mechanical properties of CRCBs is then studied. A prediction model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is established by the use of the fractal dimension as the corrosion index, together with the basic intbrmation of the beam. The validity of the prediction model is demonstrated through the experimental data, and satisfactory resuits are achieved.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Sound Speed at the PN Section

Gridded sound speed data were calculated using Del Grosso's formulation from the temperature and salinity data at the PN section in the East China Sea covering 92 cruises between February 1978 and October 2000. The vertical gradients of sound speed are mainly related to the seasonal variations, and the strong horizontal gradients are mainly related to the Kuroshio and the upwelling. The standard deviations show that great variations of sound speed exist in the upper layer and in the slope zone. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that contributions of surface heating and the Kuroshio to sound speed variance are almost equivalent. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

登陆我国热带气旋活动的年代际变化分析

本文利用1950－1999年西北太平洋热带气旋资料，对50年来登陆我国热带气旋的月际、年际和年代际变化及异常情况进行了统计分析，指出了登陆我国的热带气旋频数存在明显的年代际差异，并对比分析了同期的副热带高压等海洋大气环流指数的统计特征。     

湛江港风暴增水特征分析

本文在统计1950－1997年影响湛江港的热带气旋的基础上，利用1953－1982年30年间湛江港发生的风暴增水的资料，对湛江港风暴增水的总体特征进行了分析，总结出湛江港风暴增水的特征在于季节分布的不均匀、大的正增水和高实测水位出现频繁、造成的风暴潮灾比较严重；通过两类典型风暴潮的详细分析，结果表明：湛江港的风暴增水与影响湛江的热带气旋密切相关，大的风暴增水主要由台风引起，湛江港的地理位置也是影响风暴增水的重要因子。