Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.     

Trophic ecology of the Patagonian skate, Bathyraja macloviana, on the Argentine continental shelf

When this article was originally published     

The concept of a equilibrium surface applied to particle sources and contaminant distributions in estuarine sediments

Studies have shown that many chemically-reactive contaminants become associated with fine particles in coastal waters and that the rate, patterns, and extent of contaminant accumulation within estuarine systems are extremely variable. In this paper, we briefly review our findings concerning the accumulation patterns of contaminants in several estuarine systems along the eastern coastline of the United States, and have applied a well-established concept in geology, that is “an equilibrium profile,” to explain the observed large variations in these patterns. We show that fine-particle deposition is the most important factor affecting contaminant accumulation in estuarine areas, and that accumulation patterns are governed by physical processes acting to establish or maintain a sediment surface in dynamic equilibrium with respect to sea level, river discharge, tidal currents, and wave activity. Net long-term particle and particle-associated contaminant accumulations are negliglible in areas where the sediment surface has attained “dynamic equilibrium” with the hydraulic regime. Contaminant, accumulation in these areas primarily occurs by the exchange of contaminant-poor sedimentary particles with contaminant-rich suspended particles during physical or biological mixing of the surface sediment. Virtually the entire estuarine particulate and contaminant load bypasses these “equilibrium” areas to accumulate at extremely rapid in relatively small areas that are temporally out of equilibriums as a result of natural processes or human activities. These relatively small areas serve as major sinks for particles from riverine and marine sources, and for biogenic carbon formed in situ within estuaries or on the inner shelf.     

Was there a ‘medieval warm period’, and if so,where and when?

It has frequently been suggested that the period encompassing the ninth to the fourteenth centuries A.D. experienced a climate warmer than that prevailing around the turn of the twentieth century. This epoch has become known as theMedieval Warm Period, since it coincides with the Middle Ages in Europe. In this review a number of lines of evidence are considered, (including climatesensitive tree rings, documentary sources, and montane glaciers) in order to evaluate whether it is reasonable to conclude that climate in medieval times was, indeed, warmer than the climate of more recent times. Our review indicates that for some areas of the globe (for example, Scandinavia, China, the Sierra Nevada in California, the Canadian Rockies and Tasmania), temperatures, particularly in summer, appear to have been higher during some parts of this period than those that were to prevail until the most recent decades of the twentieth century. These warmer regional episodes were not strongly synchronous. Evidence from other regions (for example, the Southeast United States, southern Europe along the Mediterranean, and parts of South America) indicates that the climate during that time was little different to that of later times, or that warming, if it occurred, was recorded at a later time than has been assumed. Taken together, the available evidence does not support aglobal Medieval Warm Period, although more support for such a phenomenon could be drawn from high-elevation records than from low-elevation records.The available data exhibit significant decadal to century scale variability throughout the last millennium. A comparison of 30-year averages for various climate indices places recent decades in a longer term perspective.     

Accelerating the solution of linear systems appearing in two-phase reservoir simulation by the use of POD-based deflation methods

We explore and develop a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)-based deflation method for the solution of ill-conditioned linear systems, appearing in simulations of two-phase flow through highly heterogeneous porous media. We accelerate the convergence of a Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient (PCG) method achieving speed-ups of factors up to five. The up-front extra computational cost of the proposed method depends on the number of deflation vectors. The POD-based deflation method is tested for a particular problem and linear solver; nevertheless, it can be applied to various transient problems, and combined with multiple solvers, e.g., Krylov subspace and multigrid methods.

     

Biogeochemical and ecological functioning of the low-salinity water lenses in the region of the Rhone River freshwater influence,NW Mediterranean Sea

A quasi-synoptic survey of a eulerian small grid was carried out twice during mid-spring 2002 in the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean Sea. Analysis of hydrological core parameters reveal for the first time, in the region of freshwater influence (ROFI) of the Rhone River, the presence of low-salinity water (LSW) lenses. The present work details the biogeochemical and ecological functioning of the two LSW lenses from a combined analysis of nutrients and organic matter content, taxonomic assemblages of phytoplankton, primary productivity measurements and nitrogen regeneration fluxes. During the first survey, the lens observed is only detached in part from the Rhone River plume and is considered as a juvenile lens. In contrast, the second lens is totally detached from the plume forming a confined 3D structure with a large vertical development and is considered as having a more advanced maturity. A second survey, 4 days later, provided the opportunity to propose a complete sequence of ecological functioning of the LSW lenses, from their formation to a late stage of maturity just before dispersion. Nitrate contents and dissolved organic matter remain in high concentrations during the juvenile stages while the little available phosphate is rapidly exhausted. In such, an unbalanced-nutrient environment picoplankton appear to out-compete bacterioplankton for phosphate and other resources such as ammonium. In turn, the dominance of such prokaryotic assemblages could have involved the rapid development of microzooplankton. The sudden increase in phosphate observed in a more advanced stage of lens maturity is attributed to intense P-regeneration driven by the large abundance of microzooplankton. This top-down control does not seem to enable the prokaryotic assemblages to bloom again but the high concentrations of phosphate and nitrate favour the development of larger phytoplankton. These autotrophic communities rapidly exhaust nutrients and then decline in the confined ecosystem of the LSW lens that subsequently evolves towards oligotrophic conditions. In the observed last stage, small-sized phytoplankton again dominates the microbial assemblages and the trophic regime is mainly based on regenerated production. The long lifetime of the LSW lens compared to that of the Rhone River plume enables a deep transformation of the initial characteristics of the Rhone River freshwaters both in terms of nutrients balance and microbial food webs, especially through trophic cascading effects. Hence, we show that the LSW lenses have the potential to transfer nutrients and organic matter offshore but the nature (inorganic vs. organic) of the dominant compound exported will depend on the maturity of the lens at the time of its dispersion.