A combined model of wind, wave, tide and storm surges

A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level, it can describe them very well. Contribution No. 4108 from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. This work supported by Stress Project (KZ952-S1-420), Chinese Academy of Sciences; 863 Project (863-818-06-05), and (863-818-Q-07)     

震后典型建筑物倒塌分类及救援特点分析

震后建筑物倒塌造成人员埋压,快速的搜索与营救是有效减少伤亡的重要途径之一。本文通过研究震后典型建筑物倒塌类型,从建筑物垂直和水平破坏角度出发,提出一套三级分类体系,并对每类倒塌建筑物的受力及生存空间进行讨论。同时结合大量文献及汶川地震救援案例资料,重点分析总结各类建筑物救援时的路线选择、救援通道建立、被困人员施救等技术特点。     

登陆广东热带气旋特征及其与副热带高压的关系

2004年登陆广东的热带气旋只有2个,个数明显偏少,粤西无热带气旋登陆;登陆广东的初台偏迟,终台结束早,登陆时间集中于7月;热带气旋移速快,强度弱(为热带风暴),对广东影响利大于弊。对1951~2004年7~9月登陆广东的热带气旋进行统计分析,发现各月登陆广东的热带气旋次数差异较大,最多时一个月有5个,最少时没有。登陆广东的热带气旋个数与西北太平洋副热带高压位置、强度有密切关系,可以将有利于和不利于热带气旋登陆广东的副热带高压各分为3种环流形势。     

集成学习和动态融合算法在福建省短时强降水预报中的应用

为了提高短时强降水预报准确性,在2019—2020年4—9月福建省逐时降水实况观测资料与中国气象局广东快速更新同化数值预报系统(CMA-GD)模式预报产品的基础上,应用LightGBM集成学习算法框架,建立以30 mm·h^-1为阈值的逐时降水预报模型。通过特征处理、自助聚合及超参数搜索等技术对模型进行优化,结合AUC、AUPR与传统分类指标,设计了包括业务模拟测试在内的多项试验,通过对比各建模方案验证了模型对于较长时效的短时强降水预报的适用性。结果表明:模式预报本身的命中率和空报率均较高,各建模方案具有不同程度的改善作用。自助聚合可以增强模型预测稳定性,轻微不平衡子训练集能降低模型预测空报率而取得更高的综合评分,在验证集中最佳TS评分可达17.5%;对分类信息增益贡献最大的特征变量为K指数,其次为500 hPa露点温度和时间参数特征;试验指标从优到劣依次为:随机交叉验证、小时划分的随机交叉验证、业务模拟测试,可见模型有效性主要来自相同或相邻时刻的样本信息;设计基于逻辑回归的异质模型动态融合方案以改善静态同质模型表现,各项指标均有小幅提升,在命中率接近50%时削减空...     

Analysis of Some Characteristics of the Fault Activities in Eastern China by Satellite Images

Active faults have special electromagnetic effect and remote sensing characteristics, and exhibit unique im-agery marks in satellite images. A comprehensive comparison of images of active faults in eastern China and ananalysis of geologic and geomorphic data can tell us some characteristics of fault activity in the area during theneotectonic period: 1) The fault activities of the north-south tectonic zone, North China and Taiwan werestronger than those of southeastern and northeastern China; 2) the faulting in the north-south tectonic zone,North China and Taiwan has continued up to now, and most of the fault activites in southeastern andnorth-eastern China have become weaker since the Middle Pleistocene; 3) the activity is unsteady in time, mostbeing intermittent, or episodic, i.e. alternately strong and weak; 4) most active faults of a definite size can be di-vided into several segments which somewhat differ from each other in the characteristics of the activity.     

Self-similar solution of hot accretion flows with ordered magnetic field and outflow

Observations and numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations indicate the existence of outflows and ordered large-scale magnetic fields in the inner region of hot accretion flows. In this paper, we present the self-similar solutions for advection-dominated accretion flows (ADAFs) with outflows and ordered magnetic fields. Stimulated by numerical simulations, we assume that the magnetic field has a strong toroidal component and a vertical component in addition to a stochastic component. We obtain the self-similar solutions to the equations describing the magnetized ADAFs, taking into account the dynamical effects of the outflow. We compare the results with the canonical ADAFs and find that the dynamical properties of ADAFs such as radial velocity, angular velocity and temperature can be significantly changed in the presence of ordered magnetic fields and outflows. The stronger the magnetic field is, the lower the temperature of the accretion flow will be and the faster the flow rotates. The relevance to observations is briefly discussed.     

Dehydration melting of solid amphibolite at 2.0 GPa: Effects of time and temperature

The dehydration melting of the natural rock at high pressure is important to investigating the magma formation in the earth’s interior. Since the 1970s, a lot of geological scientists have paid more atten- tion to the dehydration melting of the natural rock[1―5]. Previous experiments of dehydration melting and observations of fieldwork argued that the dehy- dration melting of the rock was probably the most important fashion for the melting of the lower crust rock[6―12]. The genesis of most …     

我国断层气测量在地震科学研究中的应用现状

氢气被认为是反应断裂活动最灵敏的地球化学组分之一。研究影响断裂带氢浓度动态变化的主要因素,是科学分析断裂带氢与构造活动关系的基础工作。本文基于河南内乡马山口断层气氢气浓度与辅助测项的连续观测资料,重点分析了氢浓度变化与地温、气温、气压的相关关系,确定了主要影响因素。结果表明,氢气浓度日变化极值介于气温和地温之间,极值点靠近地温一侧。使用逐步回归方法分析进一步证明,地温、温度对氢气浓度均有影响,但地温影响更显著,气压影响不显著。总体来讲,氢浓度会受到地温和气温的双重影响,但与地温关系更为密切。     

基于网络药理学和分子对接技术探究柯里拉京治疗卵巢癌的关键靶点及分子机制

目的：采用网络药理学和分子对接技术相结合的方法探究柯里拉京（Cor）治疗卵巢癌的关键作用靶点和分子机制。方法：利用PharmMapper、TargetNet及Swiss Target Prediction在线工具预测Cor的作用靶点,通过OMIM、TTD、CTD、DisGenet、PharmGKB及MalaCards数据库获取卵巢癌相关的疾病靶点,并将药物靶点与疾病靶点取交集得到Cor治疗卵巢癌的预测靶点。借助STRING数据库、Cytoscape 软件构建蛋白质-蛋白质相互作用（PPI）网络,并采用CentiScape插件筛选出PPI网络中的核心靶点。运用GEPIA和Kaplan-Meier Plotter在线平台分别对这些核心靶点进行基因表达差异分析和生存分析,以明确Cor治疗卵巢癌的关键靶点。利用DAVID数据库进行基因本体（GO）功能及京都基因与基因组百科全书（KEGG）通路富集分析。运用Autodock Vina软件进行正向分子对接,预测关键靶点和Cor之间的结合活性。结果：Cor治疗卵巢癌的预测作用靶点共24个,其中RAC-α丝氨酸/苏氨酸蛋白激酶(AKT1)、表皮生长因子受体(EGFR)、雌激素受体1(ESR1)、原癌基因酪氨酸蛋白激酶(SRC)是Cor治疗卵巢癌的关键靶点,主要涉及血管内皮生长因子(VEGF)信号通路、缺氧诱导因子-1(HIF-1)信号通路及叉头样转录因子(FoxO)信号通路,可能通过调控细胞凋亡、细胞增殖、血管内皮细胞迁移等生物过程而发挥治疗卵巢癌的作用。分子对接结果显示,Cor与预测靶点之间具有较好的亲和力,表明通过网络药理学预测作用靶点的方法具有良好的可靠性。结论：Cor是通过多靶点、多通路的协同作用来干预多个生物过程,从而发挥其抗卵巢癌疗效,为进一步研究其治疗卵巢癌的分子机制提供了新的线索。