Indo–Chinese Magmatic Activity in the Duobaoshan District of Heilongjiang Province and Its Geological Significance

The Duobaoshan ore concentration area, located in Nenjiang County of Heilongjiang Province, is an important porphyry Cu-Mo ore concentration area in China, which is characterized by complex magmatic activities and multi–phase overprinting metallogenesis. On the basis of field geological observation, systematic sampling, in-lab analysis and the metallogenic regularity in the Xiang'an–Mongolian metallogenic belt, this work carried out high-precision dating and geochemical analysis on the Yuejin, 173-kilometer and Wolihedingzi rock bodies. These rock bodies are renamed monzonitic granite and their consistent age(238 Ma) show that they were formed not in Variscan but in Indosinian. Therefore, it is inferred that the ore spots formed in the potassium silicate and sericite alteration zones of the rock mass also belong to Indosinian. In addition, we collected granodiorite from the Tongshan mining pit, and its zircon age is 223.1±2.8 Ma and the Cu content of the sample is high. The Tongshan mineralization is inferred to undergo the superimposition of Indosinian diagenetic mineralization. The age of the granodiorite porphyry related to copper-molybdenum mineralization in the Xiaoduobaoshan area is 222.1±5.5 Ma, and the earlier age of granodiorite is 471.8±7.4 Ma, indicating that the initial magmatic activities belong to the Duobaoshan porphyry system in the Caledonian period. The geochemical characteristics of the Indosinian rock samples show continental arc features, with reference to tectonic-magmatic activities of the whole Daxing'anling area. We consider that the magmatic activities and mineralization of the Indosinian period are affected by the southward subduction of Okhotsk Ocean since Late Permian. By combining the mineralization rules of Daxinganling area and the structural systems of Duobaoshan ore concentration area, we divide two rock-mineralization belts in this area including the Yuejin–Duobaoshan–Tongshan belt and 173-kilometer–Xiaoduobaoshan–Wolihedingzi belt, which are distributed nearly parallel along the NW-trending fractures and show similar geotectonic settings and the timing of the magmatic activities. It is favorable for discovering porphyry Cu-Mo deposits in these two metallogenic belts, especially in the Yuejin, 173-kilometer and Wolihedingzi areas where less research work has been made.     

丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响

“一带一路”上升为国家战略,推进丝绸之路经济带建设使中国西北地区由过去发展的腹地转变为开放的前沿。通过引入STIRPAT模型,研究分析了丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响,设定了三种情景分析节点城市未来低碳发展情况。结果表明：人文驱动因素对碳排放的影响程度较大,模型拟合优度达到95.2%,能源消耗强度（T）、富裕程度（A）和人口数量（P）的弹性系数分别为0.511、0.285和0.222,基准情景下二氧化碳排放总量呈现稳步上升态势,政策情景和低碳情景下碳排放存在“拐点”,预计碳排放峰值将在2025-2033年间出现,低碳情景峰值比政策情景提前8 a到达,峰值总量减少40.79×10⁴ t。最后针对分析结果就丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响提出了相关建议,即控制人口数量、优化产业结构、强化污染治理。     

Relationships Between Long-Term Trend of Satellite-Derived Chlorophyll-<Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> and Hypoxia Off the Changjiang Estuary

The Changjiang Estuary is one of the largest estuaries in the world, where hypoxia frequently occurs during the summer season. Recent routine surveys in the observed area found that the low dissolved oxygen (DO) in the summer bottom water was not rapidly expanding with increasing nutrient loads in Changjiang diluted waters. Based on the remote sensing data and in situ data, we examined the historic seasonal hypoxia observations for the bottom waters of the Changjiang Estuary and investigated the short- and long-term effects that runoff had on variations in DO and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). Our analysis indicated that the recent areal variation in hypoxia was due to the changing Chl-a distribution and stratification conditions. The correspondence between hypoxia and surface Chl-a concentration showed that remotely sensed Chl-a larger than 3.0 mg L^?1 was an essential condition for the formation of hypoxia off the Changjiang Estuary. The trend of Chl-a concentration was significantly impacted by the Three Gorges Dam (TGD), and the inter-annual variation of Chl-a was weakly affected by global-scale climate variability. After the TGD impoundment, the sediment loading in the Changjiang runoff and suspended sediments in Changjiang Estuary in August decreased, and the high Chl-a concentration moved landward. These shifted the hypoxia from its optimal forming conditions.     

北欧海海面高度上升减缓及其机理研究

A slowdown of sea surface height(SSH) rise occurred in the Nordic(GIN) seas around 2004.In this study,SSH satellite data and constructed steric height data for the decades before and after 2004(i.e.,May 1994 to April 2014)were used for comparative analysis.The findings indicate that the rate of slowdown of SSH rises in the GIN seas(3.0 mm/a) far exceeded that of the global mean(0.6 mm/a).In particular,the mean steric height of the GIN seas increased at a rate of 4.5 mm/a and then decreased at a slower pace.This was the main factor responsible for the stagnation of the SSH rises,while the mass factor only increased slightly.The Norwegian Sea particularly experienced the most prominent slowdown in SSH rises,mainly due to decreased warming of the 0–600 m layer.The controlling factors of this decreased warming were cessation in the increase of volume of the Atlantic inflow and stagnation of warming of the inflow.However,variations in air-sea thermal flux were not a major factor.In the recent two decades,mean halosteric components of the GIN seas decreased steadily and remained at a rate of 2 mm/a or more because of increased flow and salinity of the Atlantic inflow during the first decade,and reduction in freshwater inputs from the Arctic Ocean in the second decade.     

湖泊富营养化响应与流域优化调控决策的模型研究进展

湖泊富营养化是全球水环境领域面临的长期挑战,富营养化响应与流域优化决策模型是制定经济和高效调控方案的关键.然而已有的模型研究综述主要集中于模型开发、案例应用、敏感性分析、不确定性分析等单一方面,而缺少针对非线性响应、生态系统长期演变等最新湖泊治理挑战的研究总结.本文对数据驱动的统计模型、因果驱动的机理模型和决策导向的优化模型进行了综述.其中,统计模型包含经典统计、贝叶斯统计和机器学习模型,常用于建立响应关系、时间序列特征分析以及预报预警;机理模型包含流域的水文与污染物输移模拟以及湖泊的水文、水动力、水质、水生态等过程的模拟,用于不同时空尺度的变化过程模拟,其中复杂机理模型的敏感性分析、参数校验、模型不确定性等需要较高的计算成本;优化模型结合机理模型形成“模拟优化”体系,在不确定性条件下衍生出随机、区间优化等多种方法,通过并行计算、简化与替代模型可一定程度上解决计算时间成本的瓶颈.本文识别了湖泊治理面临的挑战,包括:①如何定量表征外源输入的非线性叠加和湖泊氮、磷、藻变化的非均匀性?②如何提高优化调控决策和水质目标的关联与精准性?③如何揭示湖泊生态系统的长期变化轨迹与驱动因素?最后,本文针对这些挑战提出研究展望,主要包括:①基于多源数据融合与机器学习算法以提升湖泊的短期水质预测精度;②以生物量为基础的机理模型与行为驱动的个体模型的升尺度或降尺度耦合以表达多种尺度的物质交互过程;③机器学习算法与机理模型的直接耦合或数据同化以降低模拟误差;④时空尺度各异的多介质模拟模型融合以实现精准和动态的优化调控.     

基于SVM-BP神经网络的气象能见度数据缺失值预估

自动气象站能见度检测仪多采用光学装置采样,雨雪、粉尘等天气因素会对部分仪器镜头造成污染,导致能见度要素数据缺测.针对能见度数据缺失问题,本文选用安徽部分气象站的历年数据,首先运用灰色关联分析方法筛选出与能见度密切相关的其他气象要素,通过支持向量机和BP神经网络单一预估方法预估不同地形的能见度缺失值,然后采用最优权重组合将两种方法预估的能见度值进行组合,并与单一预估方法进行对比.结果表明组合方法的预估结果误差均值小、整体准确度高,可以保证台站观测资料的完备性,为短时天气预报、实况分析和气象公共服务工作提供有效依据.     

2009年早春南方地区一次高架雷暴天气过程的机理分析

利用常规气象观测资料、6.7μm卫星水汽图像和TBB、闪电定位资料以及NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,对2009年3月3日南方地区一次高架雷暴天气过程进行诊断研究。结果表明,该过程主要影响系统是中低层低槽、低涡切变线、西南低空急流、南北支西风急流。低空急流造成暖湿气流输送和高空急流造成冷平流侵入是对流触发机制。近地层为层结稳定的"冷空气垫",位势不稳定出现在低空急流与中高层干冷气流之间,并因急流中的下沉运动得以加强;西南暖湿气流与其北部干冷气流在中低层形成湿斜压锋区,西南气流的下沉支和北方下沉气流汇合在近地层形成的东北风回流与上部西南风生成锋面次级环流圈及中高层上升气流与北支急流中的下沉气流耦合形成次级正环流圈有利于倾斜上升运动的发展;低空急流的强暖平流和水汽通量辐合、北支急流入口区右侧的强辐散和南支急流北侧的辐合均加强了中尺度上升运动。湿层浅薄、上下干层较为深厚、强垂直风切变、低层逆温、-20~0℃过冷水层气流强上升运动等有利于雷暴天气的发生。雷电和冰雹出现在TBB、低空急流风速、θse、水汽通量以及300 h Pa散度等值线密集区附近。     

我国干旱遥感监测技术方法研究进展

以裸露地表、部分覆盖度地表和全植被覆盖地表3种不同下垫面类型为着眼点,详尽地阐述了相应下垫面类型下不同的干旱遥感监测技术方法的适用范围和其监测的优劣。下垫面为裸露地表时,微波遥感法具有广阔的前景;部分覆盖时双层模型法较好,但模型复杂,应注重经典双层模型的简化;全覆盖时各类监测方法各有优劣。提出未来干旱遥感监测的发展方向和应用前景,对应用遥感技术进行干旱监测相关业务的开展提供有益的参考。     

浙江省夏季降水型及气候变化

用1961－1999年浙江省36站的夏季降水资料划分浙江省夏季降水型，并研究了夏季降水及降水型气候变化及年际变化特征。     

梅雨锋引发的“03.7”特大暴雨雷达回波分析

利用常德雷达站多普勒天气雷达资料及其它资料分析了2003年7月7-11日特大暴雨天气过程的天气形势、雷达回波特征及中小尺度系统.雷达回波经历了初始、积层混合云、带状回波、积层混合云减弱消失阶段.回波单体始终自西南向东北方向移动,回波整体先由西北向东南,后北抬并移出湖南.降水回波属于低质心降水回波,"列车效应"是造成特大暴雨的主要回波特征,"列车效应"由有组织的中-γ尺度回波单体不断生消形成.多普勒速度图上,短时出现了"逆风区"等回波特征,由对流层中层不连续中小尺度大风核造成有组织的次级环流,可能是"列车效应"形成和维持的主要原因.谱宽图上,谱宽值各层十分均匀,表明强降水长时间维持的主要原因在于上下层环境风始终处于稳定状态.