Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin

Abstract

Pakistan has suffered a devastating flood disaster in 2010. In the Kabul River basin (92 605 km²), large-scale riverine and flash floods caused destructive damage with more than 1100 casualties. This study analysed rainfall–runoff and inundation in the Kabul River basin with a newly developed model that simulates the processes of rainfall–runoff and inundation simultaneously based on two-dimensional diffusion wave equations. The simulation results showed a good agreement with an inundation map produced based on MODIS for large-scale riverine flooding. In addition, the simulation identified flash flood-affected areas, which were confirmed to be severely damaged based on a housing damage distribution map. Since the model is designed to be used even immediately after a disaster, it can be a useful tool for analysing large-scale flooding and to provide supplemental information to agencies for relief operations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Sayama, T., Ozawa, G., Kawakami, T., Nabesaka, S. and Fukami, K., 2012. Rainfall–runoff–inundation analysis of the 2010 Pakistan flood in the Kabul River basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 298–312.     

利用两种活体荧光技术分析北极微藻对光照变化的响应

采用调制叶绿素荧光技术（脉冲-振幅-调制：Pulse-Amplitude-Modulation,简称为PAM技术）和荧光光谱两种技术研究不同光照下的两种北极微藻（北极异帽藻（Heterocapsa arctica）和红胞藻（Rhodomonas sp.）的荧光特性,发现（1）两种藻在三个不同光照水平下（5 000 lux、15 000 lux、25 000 lux）光合生理变化特征相似：随着光照强度增加,光量子产量越低,光合效率越低;在15 000 lux和25 000 lux两个较强光照条件下,最大光合电子传递速率（rETRmax）没有提高,且捕光能力下降;25 000 lux光照强度下,均处于胁迫状态,但对强光的耐受能力增强;（2）两种藻在15 000 lux条件下Chl a荧光强度最高,25 000 lux条件下的Chl a荧光强度都显著降低,受到不同程度的光损伤;类胡萝卜素和多甲藻素是维持北极异帽藻15 000 lux下种群生存的有效色素;藻胆素和Chl c则分别为维持红胞藻5 000 lux和15 000 lux条件下的种群的生存起了积极作用。     

陨石中铼锇同位素化学分离过程的几个重要影响因素

本文针对陨石中铼锇同位素比值高精度测定,选取6块不同类型的普通球粒陨石（吉林陨石、信阳陨石、武安陨石、肇东陨石、河北陨石、荷叶塘陨石）和两块铁陨石（南丹铁陨石和T-5）进行预处理和化学过程的一些条件实验。实验结果表明,陨石金属表面的锈迹清洗使用1M的HCl效果更佳;对于样品溶解,逆王水溶解效果比浓硝酸好,高温溶样熔解彻底,常温状态下仅能溶解出约30%的陨石样品中的Os;微蒸馏二次纯化可提高Os测定信号的稳定性和精度;稀释剂的浓度及加入量应与样品匹配,且达到平衡状态是高精度和高准确度的保障;普通球粒陨石取样范围在0.1g-0.3g (即样品中Os的绝对含量为100ng)即可获取最佳信号强度和精度;本次实验全流程空白Os可控制至0.5~81pg,Re可控制至4～77pg采用同位素稀释法,当187Os/188Os比值的精度最小可至4ppm（n=120,2se）。     

高精度热电离质谱（TIMS）在南极陨石研究中的应用前景

热电离质谱（TIMS）是同位素地球化学研究中传统、可靠、分析精度高的主要测试仪器之一,尤其对于微量样品的高精度同位素比值测定,以其高精度和高灵敏度获得广泛的认可,这一特征在天体化学微量样品同位素研究中具有广阔的应用前景。目前,新型TRITON TIMS质谱仪已实现了Re–Os,Cr,Sr,Nd,Pb等同位素的高精度测定。采用TIMS测定Sr同位素比值的Sr含量范围可由10pg—100ng以上,87Sr/88Sr比值测定精度可达到5‰—5ppm;LaJolla Nd同位素标样测试结果为：143Nd/144Nd=0.511842±0.000005（2SE,n=28）,143Nd/144Nd比值测定精度最佳可达2ppm;207Pb–204Pb双稀释剂法对Pb含量为5—20ng样品测定,外部精度206Pb/204Pb、207Pb/204Pb和208Pb/204Pb分别达到±0.0034、±0.0046和±0.0100（2SE,n=28）;负离子状态（NTIMS）下对Os含量低至几—几十pg的样品测定187Os/188Os比值精度可达0.2‰以内,对Os含量为ng级的样品,187Os/188Os比值精度好于20ppm;Cr同位素比值50Cr/52Cr,53Cr/52Cr,54Cr/52Cr的分析精度分别可达到1ppm,2ppm,2ppm（2SD）以内。这些方法涵盖了亲石元素、亲铁元素,长寿命放射性同位素和短寿命灭绝核素的同位素研究,为我国南极陨石的深入研究提供了有力技术保障。     

南极GRV 024237橄辉无球粒陨石的岩石矿物学特征

GRV024237是第19次中国南极科学考察队在南极格罗夫山地区一号冰碛上发现的。主要由粗粒状橄榄石(60vol%)、易变辉石(30vol%)和不透明矿物(10vol%)组成,粗粒橄榄石辉石、颗粒边界呈120°接触角,无球粒,粗粒橄榄石具有明显的反环带结构,这些特征符合典型的橄辉无球粒陨石结构。薄片中橄榄石颗粒的边部到核部化学组成变化显著,边部富镁,Fa6.2—Fa17.5;易变辉石组成比较均一,Fs14.0—Fs15.5;基质不透明矿物富含碳质,充填于大颗粒的间隙及裂隙。岩石学和矿物化学组成两方面都表明GRV024237是一块橄辉无球粒陨石,且属于I型单矿角砾岩,中等FeO/MgO比值,冲击程度较弱,经历了部分熔融。     

Validation and use of rainfall radar data to simulate water flows in the Rio Escondido basin

This paper presents a combined validation method of radar-sensed rainfall, using rain gauge data and hydrologic closure, with an application to the Rio Escondido basin (North-East of Mexico). The space–time scaling behavior of rainfall between rain gauge and radar scales is compared with the intrinsic variability of rainfall, for a statistical validation of space–time variability. For hydrological validation purposes, the CEQUEAU model is used to perform rainfall-runoff routing. It provides a basin-wide water balance, to be compared with the measured water flow at the Villa de Fuentes hydrometric station, for mean-value gauging closure. A good qualitative agreement in terms of hydrograph shape and timing is obtained between the simulated and the observed water flows, and a multiplicative correction factor of an initially proposed Z–R relationship is adopted for the watershed under study, which agrees approximately with other authors’ findings about that relationship. The results are considered particularly useful as a validation-and-correction methodology of radar rainfall estimates for areas sparsely covered by rain gauges.     

传染病多维度聚集性探测方法

及早发现异常健康事件的苗头是有效进行传染病早期预警的关键.现有的传染病聚集性探测仅限于时间、空间或时空维度,往往容易忽略病例个人情况从其他方面反映的信息,从而造成过度预警.论文结合蚁群聚类算法和Bayesian Gamma-Poisson 模型,提出一种全新的传染病多维度聚类探测技术.研究区麻疹爆发案例证明该技术在继承以往时空聚集性探测技术思想的基础上,考虑了病例的属性信息,能更为灵敏、准确地找出传染病聚集区域.此方法在实际工作中具有潜在的重要应用价值.     

A central difference method with low numerical dispersion for solving the scalar wave equation

In this paper, we propose a nearly‐analytic central difference method, which is an improved version of the central difference method. The new method is fourth‐order accurate with respect to both space and time but uses only three grid points in spatial directions. The stability criteria and numerical dispersion for the new scheme are analysed in detail. We also apply the nearly‐analytic central difference method to 1D and 2D cases to compute synthetic seismograms. For comparison, the fourth‐order Lax‐Wendroff correction scheme and the fourth‐order staggered‐grid finite‐difference method are used to model acoustic wavefields. Numerical results indicate that the nearly‐analytic central difference method can be used to solve large‐scale problems because it effectively suppresses numerical dispersion caused by discretizing the scalar wave equation when too coarse grids are used. Meanwhile, numerical results show that the minimum sampling rate of the nearly‐analytic central difference method is about 2.5 points per minimal wavelength for eliminating numerical dispersion, resulting that the nearly‐analytic central difference method can save greatly both computational costs and storage space as contrasted to other high‐order finite‐difference methods such as the fourth‐order Lax‐Wendroff correction scheme and the fourth‐order staggered‐grid finite‐difference method.     

路基坡脚积水对多年冻土路基稳定性的影响研究进展

多年冻土路基的稳定性很大程度上取决于其下伏多年冻土层的热稳定性. 当融雪、降雨或人为等外界因素形成的路基坡脚积水持续一段时间后,这些积水可能通过入渗对流换热、热边界侵蚀、补给冻胀水分等方式加剧或诱发多年冻土路基热稳定性的下降和丧失. 通过回顾国内外相关文献,从影响多年冻土路基稳定性的因素、积水对路基活动层冻融过程中水分迁移的影响、热融湖塘类积水对冻土路基的热影响、降雨和融雪积水入渗对冻土路基的热影响等方面,归纳总结了坡脚积水对多年冻土路基影响方面的研究进展;在此基础上,提出了对此问题进一步深入的研究展望和探讨.     

Uptake and biological effects of synthetic glucocorticoids in common carp (Cyprinus carpio)

Uptake and biological effects of synthetic glucocorticoids (GCs) were analyzed using common carp (Cyprinus carpio). Fish were exposed to clobetasol propionate (CP) or clobetasone butyrate (CB) individually or in mixture at 1 μg L⁻¹ for 21 days. Bioconcentration factor (BCF) of CB was calculated as 100, and BCF of CP was less than 16. No effects were found in fish erythrocyte and leukocyte numbers and serum glucose levels after exposure to the selected GCs. On the other hand, serum concentrations of free amino acids significantly increased in GC-exposed groups. Thus, exposures to synthetic GCs at relatively low concentrations seemed to cause enhancement of protein degradation and subsequent increase of serum free amino acids without a corresponding increase in serum glucose levels, an effect which might be related to partial induction of gluconeogenesis by GC.