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921.
Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle. 相似文献
922.
Vertical distributions of aerosol optical properties during haze and floating dust weather in Shanghai 下载免费PDF全文
A comparative study on the vertical distributions of aerosol optical properties during haze and floating dust weather in Shanghai was conducted based on the data obtained from a micro pulse lidar.There was a distinct difference in layer thickness and extinction coefficient under the two types of weather conditions.Aerosols were concentrated below 1 km and the aerosol extinction coefficients ranged from 0.25 to 1.50km-1 on haze days.In contrast,aerosols with smaller extinction coefficients(0.20 0.35 km-1) accumulated mainly from the surface to 2 km on floating dust days.The seasonal variations of extinction and aerosol optical depth(AOD) for both haze and floating dust cases were similar greatest in winter,smaller in spring,and smallest in autumn.More than 85%of the aerosols appeared in the atmosphere below 1 km during severe haze and floating dust weather.The diurnal variation of the extinction coefficient of haze exhibited a bimodal shape with two peaks in the morning or at noon,and at nightfall,respectively.The aerosol extinction coefficient gradually increased throughout the day during floating dust weather.Case studies showed that haze aerosols were generated from the surface and then lifted up,but floating dust aerosols were transported vertically from higher altitude to the surface.The AOD during floating dust weather was higher than that during haze.The boundary layer was more stable during haze than during floating dust weather. 相似文献
923.
This paper presents a new type of rainfall retrieval algorithm, called the model-oriented statistical and Volterra integration. It is a combination of the model-oriented statistical (MOS) and Volterra integral equation (VIE) approaches. The steps involved in this new algorithm can be briefly illustrated as follows. Firstly, information such as the start point and width of the rain is obtained through pre-analysis of the data received by synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Secondly, the VIE retrieval algorithm is employed over a short distance to obtain information on the shape of the rain. Finally, the rain rate can be calculated by using the MOS retrieval algorithm. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is effective and simple, and can lead to time savings of nearly 50% compared with MOS. An example of application of SAR data is also discussed, involving the retrieval of precipitation information over the South China Sea. 相似文献
924.
The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect. 相似文献
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928.
利用1960—2012年5—6月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,基于冷涡经典定义,采取客观识别方法检索东北冷涡活动过程,根据东北冷涡活动时空变化特征给出东北冷涡持续活动过程标准, 通过冷涡强度指数进行定量化分析,该指数对冷涡持续活动过程具有较好表征意义。冷涡活动强对应5月乌拉尔山阻塞高压、贝加尔湖阻塞高压和6月鄂霍次克海阻塞高压活动频繁。通过强弱指数年合成,得到6月强指数年冷涡系统较深厚,集中于对流层中高层,冷心结构明显,具有一定大气斜压特征; 高层存在冷中心,低层有冷空气活动,中高层西风带呈明显的上游分流和下游汇合特征,分汇流之间呈东北高、西南低的偶极子阻塞形势;弱指数年冷涡系统较浅薄,主要集中在对流层中低层,冷心结构不明显,不存在阻塞形势。 相似文献
929.
对21世纪以来定量降水预报技术流程中的数值模式预报、统计后处理、检验评估和预报员作用4个方面的研究工作进行了归纳,主要进展包括:业务全球模式对于降水的预报能力持续提升,而发展高分辨率模式 (尤其是对流尺度模式) 和集合预报是提高定量降水预报精准化水平的主要途径,且将两者相结合以促进短期降水预报是发展趋势;统计后处理技术已发展到应用数据挖掘方法对海量预报数据中有效信息进行提取和集成,而再预报资料的出现将进一步促进统计后处理技术的发展;为解决评估精细化定量降水预报面临的新问题,多种新的检验技术得到发展和应用,如极端降水检验评分、空间检验技术及概率检验方法等;预报员在模式和后处理方法上能够提供的附加值越来越有限,但在预报流程中仍将处于核心地位,其角色将逐渐向帮助用户进行决策方向转变。文章指出,定量降水预报技术的发展所面临的挑战包括大气水汽观测及同化技术改进、暖区和复杂地形下暴雨预报等科学问题的解决。 相似文献
930.
利用阿克苏及邻近地区12个气象站1980—2013年雷暴资料,以及同期高空资料,统计了各站年均雷暴日数,对发生区域雷暴天气的环流形势进行分类,归纳出各型的入型指标。通过逐步回归法,建立阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴概率回归预报模型,并对2013年进行试预报。结果表明:(1)阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴的影响系统主要分为4类:巴湖低槽型、急流型、西北气流型和温度槽型。(2)对2002—2012年5—9月(共1683 d)历史资料进行判别,满足入型条件的样本数为876 d,消空率为48%;对2013年5—9月(共153 d)历史资料进行判别,入型样本数为80 d,消空率为48%。(3)对2002—2012年5—9月所有入型样本进行回代检验,平均准确率为72.0%(平均TS评分为30.1%);对2013年5—9月所有入型样本进行试预报,平均准确率为63.2%(平均TS评分为28.2%)。 相似文献