随机Petri网在地震应急协同能力定量评价与动态分析中的应用

地震应急是一个复杂动态的过程,需要各部门协同配合方能高效开展应急工作。本文通过调研分析历史地震应急处置案例,提出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ级应急响应下多主体地震应急协同的一般流程,构建了相应的随机Petri网模型,并基于Petri网可能出现的状态集同构马尔科夫链,在计算各应急状态稳定概率的基础上,定量评价应急协同能力。同时,将应急过程中利用率高的变迁所对应的应急行为,作为应急处置的关键环节。通过调整各关键环节的应急速率,进一步对应急协同能力进行动态分析,进而提出有效提高应急协同联动能力的相关建议,为科学开展地震应急处置工作提供支持。     

基于实地调研的中国西南地区不同震级人员死亡数量研究

地震是造成人员死亡最严重的自然灾害之一,震后对人员死亡等灾情的快速评估是地震应急响应和救援的关键。总结经验发现,在地震前进行预评估工作是提高震后灾情快速评估精度和时效性的有效手段。通过对62次发生在我国西南地区的历史震例分析后发现,当地震震级小于4.5级时,基本不会造成人员死亡情况。本研究利用我国云南和四川部分区县的实地调研数据,发现地震人员死亡数与震级存在指数函数关系,由此构建了针对各个区县的地震人员死亡人数指数函数估算模型,并计算了回归系数。基于该模型,获得了5.0～8.0级地震人员死亡数查找表(以0.5级为间隔),用于辅助震后快速评估工作。     

Integrating hydrochemical and microbial methods to identify hydraulic connections between three saltworks in southern Laizhou Bay,China

Exploring hydraulic connections between brine mining wells is of great significance to the development of geological resources; however, there are still challenges to accurately identifying these connections. In this study, a combination of hydrochemical and biological analyses was used to investigate the hydraulic connections between three saltworks (Yangkou, Hanting, and Changyi) in southern Laizhou Bay, China. The results showed that the groundwater recharge sources at Yangkou saltworks, and therefore the associated salts and hydrochemical composition of the brine, were different from those of the other two saltworks. The diversity and composition of the microbial community among the three saltworks were identified based on a high-throughput DNA sequencing method. The brines of Hanting and Changyi saltworks had greater similarity in terms of microbial diversity and composition, which was consistent with the hydrochemical results. Based on microbial analysis combined with hydrochemistry, the depths of the mining wells at Hanting saltworks were identified, along with the hydraulic connection with Changyi saltworks. As a tool to judge the hydraulic connections of geological reservoirs, microbial analysis combined with hydrochemistry may be applicable to a wider range of subsurface resources, such as oil and gas, which will provide new ideas for the rational development of underground resources.

     

兰州第四纪黄土/古土壤序列物源演变: 来自于碳酸盐矿物的证据*

黄土/古土壤的物源研究对于揭示第四纪气候变化和青藏高原隆升历史具有重要意义。本研究以位于黄土高原西部1.4 Ma以来的兰州黄土/古土壤沉积序列为研究对象,基于X射线衍射技术分析了黄土/古土壤中的主要矿物组成,侧重于碳酸盐矿物含量,追溯了兰州黄土/古土壤的直接物源。结果显示: (1)1.4 Ma以来兰州地区黄土/古土壤沉积物的主要直接源区为柴达木盆地沙漠区和阿拉善干旱区。(2)基于二元混合模型计算的潜在原始源区对兰州黄土白云石和总碳酸盐矿物的相对贡献率以及长石与石英比值结果一致支持1.4 Ma以来兰州黄土原始物源发生了多次变化。1.4~1.1 Ma和0.9~0.3 Ma青藏高原东北缘造山带(昆仑山、祁连山)和中亚造山带对兰州黄土的贡献相当,而1.1~0.9 Ma和0.3 Ma以来,中亚造山带对兰州黄土的物源贡献增加,这可能分别是对中更新世气候转型和0.3 Ma以来青藏高原及邻近地区干冷气候增强的响应。1.15 Ma和0.8 Ma兰州黄土/古土壤中高的白云石含量、碳酸盐矿物总含量以及0.8 Ma长石与石英比值的快速升高可能是对“昆黄运动”的响应,进而造成了昆仑山、祁连山对黄土高原物源贡献的增加。     

Crustal Electrical Structure and Deep Metallogenic Potential in Northern Wuyi Area (South China), based on Magnetotelluric Data

The northern Wuyi area, which is located in the northern Wuyi metallogenic belt, has superior mineralization conditions. The Pingxiang–Guangfeng–Jiangshan–Shaoxing fault (PSF) extends across the whole region regardless of whether or how the PSF relates to the near-surface mineralization. We carried out an MT survey in the region and obtained a reliable 2D model of the crustal electrical structure to a depth of 30 km. In the resistivity model, we inferred that a continuous high conductivity belt that ranges from the shallow to deep crust is a part of the PSF. Then, we estimated the fluid content and pressure gradient to identify the deep sources of fluid as well as its pattern of motion pattern. Finally, we proposed a model for the deep metallogenic migration processes that combines geological data, fluid content data, pressure gradient data, and the subsurface resistivity model. The model analysis showed that the Jiangnan orogenic belt and the Cathaysia block formed the PSF during the process of com. The deep fluid migrated upward through the PSF to the shallow crust. Therefore, we believe that the PSF is an ore-forming fluid migration channel and that it laid the material basis for large-scale mineralization in the shallow crust.     

基于开源GIS的地震灾情速报信息收集与处置研究

针对河南省灾情获取效率低的现实问题,设计基于QGIS的微信小程序,实现灾情速报员属性数据空间化,并自动分配拨打电话任务,灾情调查人员及时将通过拨打电话获取的灾情信息快速上报,实时动态展布,并快速统计灾情速报信息,生成地震有感范围图和地震灾情信息汇总报告,为地震抗震救灾指挥部决策提供支持,满足河南及邻区小震、弱震较多地区地震应急、应急演练工作需求,也为其他应急系统建设提供参考。     

PVA1788成膜体系无固相冲洗液在桂柳地1井的应用

桂柳地1井为广西柳州市鱼峰区雒容镇区块页岩气地质调查井,设计井深2350 m,钻遇水敏性地层等复杂地层。为了提高无固相冲洗液在页岩气复杂地层深孔钻进中维持孔壁稳定的能力,在PVA1788体系无固相冲洗液的基础上,添加成膜A剂、封堵剂GFD-1等处理剂。根据冲洗液试验及现场应用,成膜A剂具有降失水功能,不影响冲洗液的润滑性能,对粘度影响不明显,该PVA1788成膜体系无固相冲洗液滤失量较低,封堵裂隙效果好,减弱了地层水化膨胀,提高了成膜抑制防塌能力,满足了桂柳地1井深孔复杂地层维护孔壁稳定、安全钻进的需要。对类似复杂地层无固相冲洗液的推广应用具有参考价值。     

Experimental study on three-point bending of granite after cryogenic freeze-thaw cycles at -160 ℃北大核心CSCD

In order to study the effect of freeze-thaw cycles on the type I fracture toughness of granite under ultra-low temperature conditions,semi-circular bending（SCB）specimens were used in this study,and different freeze-thaw times（1,2 and 3 times）were selected. The granite in the natural state was treated with -160 ℃ ultra-low temperature freeze-thaw cycles,and the three-point bending test was carried out on the granite after the freeze-thaw cycle. and microstructure effects. The results show that with the increase of freeze-thaw cycles,the localized damage of I-type crack tip of granite is intensified,the fracture toughness is decreased,the number of microcracks and pores in the rock is increased,the length of cracks is increased,and the pore size is increased. Finally,the changes of rock frost heaving force and fracture toughness under low temperature and ultra-low temperature conditions are compared and analyzed. Compared with low temperature conditions,the frost heaving force produced by ultra-low temperature freezing and thawing is larger. When fracture toughness decreases by approximately the same amplitude,rocks need more cycles of freezing and thawing at low temperature. The research results can provide theoretical reference for underground storage of liquefied natural gas（LNG）in ultra-low temperature environment. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

Chemical composition of garnet from the Xintianling skarn W deposit in southern Hunan and its geological significanceSCIEI北大核心CSCD

新田岭矿床是南岭钨锡成矿带中的一个大型矽卡岩型钨矿床,产于骑田岭岩体东北部与石炭系碳酸盐地层的接触带位置。本文运用LA-ICP-MS技术对该矿床矽卡岩中的石榴子石进行了系统的成分分析,获得了其主量、微量和稀土元素含量。结果显示,新田岭矿床中的石榴子石属于钙铁榴石-钙铝榴石固溶体系列(And₂₄Gro₆₆ -And₇₁Gro₂₂),石榴子石的端元成分在富钙铝榴石和富钙铁榴石之间变化。稀土元素的配分模式也同时出现了左倾、Eu负异常和右倾、Eu正异常两种类型,暗示新田岭矿床石榴子石结晶过程中热液流体存在不同的氧化还原环境和水/岩比条件,这也与其晶体中是否出现振荡环带相对应。将不同矽卡岩型矿床中石榴子石的W、Sn含量进行对比显示,含W矿化的矽卡岩型矿床中石榴子石的W、Sn含量整体上显著高于不含W矿化的矿床,指示石榴子石中的W、Sn含量在一定程度上具有预测矽卡岩型矿床成W矿潜力的作用。此外,石榴子石中Fe、Eu、U等元素的含量还可以进一步区分矽卡岩W矿床中的伴生金属元素类型(包括W-Mo、W-Sn、W-Cu-...     

孔兹岩带古元古代中期构造背景：来自卓资地区～2.2Ga紫苏碱长花岗岩的证据

麻粒岩-紫苏花岗岩杂岩在华北克拉通孔兹岩带内分布较广但研究程度较低,本文对孔兹岩带东部卓资地区大什字紫苏碱长花岗岩进行了详细的岩相学、地球化学和地质年代学研究,探讨了其形成时代、岩石成因及构造背景,为孔兹岩带构造演化及孔兹岩系沉积环境提供约束。SHRIMP锆石U-Pb测年结果表明大什字紫苏碱长花岗岩形成于古元古代中期(～2.2Ga),并经历了古元古代晚期构造热事件及～1.89Ga变质作用叠加改造。岩石具有铁质、钙碱性至碱钙性、准铝质至弱过铝质特征,具有较高SiO₂、Na₂O+K₂O、Ga、Zr含量及FeO~T/(FeO~T+MgO)值,低Al₂O₃、CaO、MgO、 Sr、Cr含量及较高的全岩锆石饱和温度(835～887℃,平均860℃),与A型花岗岩指标相近。样品呈现平坦的右倾型稀土元素配分模式和弱的负Eu异常,富集K、Rb、Ba、Zr、Hf,亏损Sr、Nb、Ta、P、Ti。综合研究表明大什字紫苏碱长花岗岩是在弧后伸展背景下幔源岩浆上涌导致英云闪长质、花岗闪长质地壳岩石部分熔...