中长期地震预测方案综合信度评价的层次分析法

由于存在各种复杂的不确定因素的影响，正确合理地评价地震观测结果的可信度，具有一定的难度。本文首先引入具有广泛应用途的层次分析法，并以华北北部为例，结合Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ专家咨询结果，给出了反映各个预测方案结果的可信度及具有满意一致性的相对重要性权系数。其结果可作为综合各种预测方案，确定该地区中长期地震危险区的参考依据。     

Spheroidal oscillations of the Earth stimulated by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake with CDSN data

The 0S2~0S54 spheroidal modes of Earth’s free oscillations, triggered by the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 are retrieved from VHZ data recorded by seven upgraded stations of China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN). We compare these spheroidal modes with theoretical free oscillation spectra calculated from the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) and find a coincidence between their periods. Spectral splitting phenomenon is observed obviously in 0S2, 0S3, 0S4, 2S1 and 1S2 free oscillation modes. What is most noticeable is that the oscillation mode 2S1 is reported for the second time (the first time by Rosat et al) without any data stacking. We simulated the split singlet of 0S2 mode on seven CDSN stations based on general focal mechanism and seismic moment of the earthquake. The result shows that seismic moment of the earthquake can reach 1023 N.m. We also find that the recording of Earth’s free oscillations carries abundant information of source mechanism and earthquake location, which is applicable to the detailed study of source rupture parameters.     

Characteristics and method of synthesis seismic wave based on wavelet reconstruction

A novel method of synthesizing seismic wave using wavelet reconstruction is proposed and compared with the traditional method of using theory of Fourier transform. By adjusting the frequency band energy and taking it as criterion, the formula of synthesizing seismic wave is deduced. Using the design parameters specified in Chinese Seismic Design Code for buildings, seismic waves are synthesized. Moreover, the method of selecting wavelet bases in synthesizing seismic wave and the influence of the damping ratio on synthesizing results are analyzed. The results show that the synthesis seismic waves using wavelet bases can represent the characteristics of the seismic wave as well as the ground characteristic period, and have good time-frequency non-stationary.     

盐城地区大棚反季节蔬菜生产的温度条件及其应用

通过平行对比观测试验，分析得出了我市塑料大棚不同层次的增温效应，以及晴雨天气转换时大棚内的各项温度的变化情况，并根据大彬的几种主要蔬菜适宜生长的气象指标，对我市沿海地区大棚的反季节蔬菜生产作出各类蔬菜棚内的适宜生长期，为利用大棚进行反季节蔬菜生产提供了科学依据。     

记贵州顶效中三叠世一新的海生爬行动物

在贵州兴义顶效绿荫村西大约150m绿荫水泥厂南面采石场出露的中三叠统杨柳并组（拉丁阶）灰黑色中薄层灰岩中发现一新的海生爬行动物－绿荫顶效龙Dingxiaosaurus luyinensisgen.et sp.nov。它的肢骨形态和结构颇为独特，股骨，胫，腓骨以及跗骨的形状和结构相似于原始的鱼龙，而趾骨形状和数目有些相似于最早的蛇颈龙，但又与所有已知的鱼龙和蛇颈类类的属种均明显不同，它是早期海生爬行动脉进化的一个比较原始而孤立的新种类，它的发现对早期海生爬行动物进化多样性的认识具有十分重要的科学意义。     

技术创新是工程设计的灵魂

南昌有色冶金设计研究院是建国初期创建的有色行业综合甲级设计研究院,现有职工925人,设有36个专业。建院以来为国家基本建设提供了2000余项大中型综合工程和单项设计。共获国家和省(部)级优秀设计奖81项,国家和省(部)级科技进步奖87项。改革开放以来,在铜冶炼方面,先后承担了江西贵溪冶炼厂、安徽铜     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

株州市土壤重金属污染的对应分析

株州市土壤重金属污染的主要原因是工厂排放有害气体，或是水体污染物随灌溉进入土壤。采用对应分析方法，将市区土壤重金属污染分析３种类型。靠近人业污染源附近，镉的含量及污染指数高；大部分土壤受多种重金属污染；水稻土主要表现为铅的污染。     

Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。     

高美古与凤凰山水汽含量的统计分析

介绍了利用北京师范大学研制的ＩＲＡ－９３５型红外水汽测量仪对云南丽江高美古天文候选点及昆明凤凰山对比点上空垂直大气水汽积分含量Ｗ０的观测结果,给出了两地Ｗ０的日变化曲线及分布图,并对全年测量数据的统计结果作了分析和讨论