高速公路沉降计算中e-lg p法修正探讨

利用已有的高速公路土工试验资料，通过大量的非线性有限元计算得出一个与路堤填筑高度及路基土体压缩系数相关的沉降综合修正式，使得单向 e-lgp 法的计算结果修正后能够考虑土体侧向变形。实例验证表明：经此式修正后的沉降值误差较小，不但比规范法更合理，而且与实测值以及有限元法结果很接近，具有一定的工程参考价值和借鉴意义。     

Operational climate prediction in the era of big data in China: Reviews and prospects

Big data has emerged as the next technological revolution in IT industry after cloud computing and the Internet of Things. With the development of climate observing systems, particularly satellite meteorological observation and high-resolution climate models, and the rapid growth in the volume of climate data, climate prediction is now entering the era of big data. The application of big data will provide new ideas and methods for the continuous development of climate prediction. The rapid integration, cloud storage, cloud computing, and full-sample analysis of massive climate data makes it possible to understand climate states and their evolution more objectively, thus predicting the future climate more accurately. This paper describes the application status of big data in operational climate prediction in China; it analyzes the key big data technologies, discusses the future development of climate prediction operations from the perspective of big data, speculates on the prospects for applying climatic big data in cloud computing and data assimilation, and puts forward the notion of big data-based super-ensemble climate prediction methods and computerbased deep learning climate prediction methods.     

2014—2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的气候影响

2014—2016年,赤道中东太平洋发生了一次超强厄尔尼诺事件,此次事件于2015年11月达到峰值,12月开始衰减。其峰值强度超过了1951年以来另外两次超强厄尔尼诺事件（1982/1983年和1997/1998年）的强度,成为了1951年以来最强的事件。截至2016年4月,事件已持续20个月,也成为了1951年以来持续时间最长的厄尔尼诺事件。在这次事件的发展过程中,热带太平洋至东亚副热带地区的大气环流表现出了显著的响应特征：赤道中东太平洋对流活动加强,异常上升运动发展,而赤道西太平洋对流活动受抑制,异常下沉运动控制;菲律宾附近异常反气旋生成并发展加强,西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、西伸脊点异常偏西,尤其2015年冬季副热带高压强度为1980年以来最强。与此同时,2015年秋、冬季,我国长江以南大部降水偏多,尤其冬季华南地区（广东、广西、海南三省区）平均降水量达历史第一,较常年偏多1.6倍以上。近期,超强厄尔尼诺正处于衰减阶段,但是考虑到热带印度洋暖海温的“接力”作用,厄尔尼诺事件对2016年春、夏季我国气候异常的影响可能仍将持续。     

利用Abel-Poisson径向基函数模型化局部重力场

多种类型高分辨率重力场数据的不断增加,使得在局部范围内精化重力场模型成为了可能。本文采用Abel-Poisson核将重力场量表示成有限个径向基函数线性求和的形式,对局部区域的多种重力场数据进行联合建模。为了提高运算速度,运用了基于自适应精化格网算法的最小均方根误差准则(RMS)来求解径向基函数平均带宽。以南海核心地区为例,联合两种不同类型、不同分辨率的重力场资料(大地水准面起伏6'×6'、重力异常2'×2'),构建了局部区域高分辨率的重力场模型。所建模型表示的重力场参量达到了2'×2'的分辨率,对原始的重力异常数据(2'×2')拟合的符合程度达到±0.8×10-5m/s2。结果表明,利用径向基函数方法进行局部重力场建模,避免了球谐函数建模收敛慢的问题,有效提高了模型表示重力场的分辨率。     

基于部分最小二乘岭估计的粗差定值定位

在利用部分最小二乘原理进行粗差定值定位时,模型的法方程矩阵可能存在病态性,使得到的粗差定值定位结果不可靠。文中针对观测数据包含多个粗差且法方程病态问题,利用岭估计处理病态问题,建立部分最小二乘岭估计的粗差定值定位方法,给出粗差搜索步骤,利用迭代算法实现多个粗差的定值和定位。通过模拟算例分析部分最小二乘法、部分最小二乘岭估计在粗差搜索方面的效果,从另一个角度探讨粗差处理方法,推广现有的误差理论,证明文中方法的有效性。     

基于 ＲS 和 GIS 的土壤侵蚀强度快速分析: 以昌都市扎玉镇为例

以昌都市左贡县扎玉镇为例,选用中巴地球资源二号遥感数据、数字高程模型数据和土地利用类型数据,用遥感软件提取植被指数并进行密度分割,确定植被覆盖度,并对其进行分级; 用地理信息系统软件提取坡度信息,并对坡度进行分级; 在1∶ 5 万比例尺下修正已有的土地利用类型。结果统计扎玉镇 76. 26%的土壤处于轻度及以下侵蚀状态,强烈及以上的土壤侵蚀比例达 5. 48%,土壤侵蚀剧烈的地区主要分布在耕地部分,中度侵蚀的地区主要集中在林草地部分,因此土地利用合理化以及提高植被覆盖率可以有效减小土壤侵蚀强度。     

基于MTSAT卫星遥感的中国海及西北太平洋海域海表温度日增温研究

Hourly sea surface temperature(SST) observations from the geostationary satellite are increasingly used in studies of the diurnal warming of the surface oceans. The aim of this study is to derive the spatial and temporal distribution of diurnal warming in the China seas and northwestern Pacific Ocean from Multi-functional Transport Satellite(MTSAT) SST. The MTSAT SST is validated against drifting buoy measurements firstly. It shows mean biases is about –0.2°C and standard deviation is about 0.6°C comparable to other satellite SST accuracy. The results show that the tropics, mid-latitudes controlled by subtropical high and marginal seas are frequently affected by large diurnal warming. The Kuroshio and its extension regions are smaller compared with the surrounding regions. A clear seasonal signal, peaking at spring and summer can be seen from the long time series of diurnal warming in the domain in average. It may due to large insolation and low wind speed in spring and summer, while the winter being the opposite. Surface wind speed modulates the amplitude of the diurnal cycle by influencing the surface heat flux and by determining the momentum flux. For the shallow marginal seas, such as the East China Sea, turbidity would be another important factor promoting diurnal warming. It suggests the need for the diurnal variation to be considered in SST measurement, air-sea flux estimation and multiple sensors SST blending.     

LA-ICP-MS测定锡石U-Pb同位素年龄时两种普通铅扣除方法的原理及适用性比较

根据近年来激光烧蚀电感耦合等离子体质谱仪锡石微区原位U-Pb同位素定年的实验结果,结合相关资料,对实验过程中普通铅扣除的2种主要方法,即谐和图法和等时线法的原理、效果、优点和局限性进行了深入的比较。研究成果表明,2种主要方法各有不同的优点及局限性。在实际工作中,要想获得比较准确的测试结果,需要根据具体矿物样品的年龄范围、总的U和Pb含量、普通铅相对含量、测年精度要求等因素,灵活地选择普通铅扣除的方法。     

Advance in Matrix Effect Study of LA‐MC‐ICPMS U‐Pb Dating on U‐Bearing Oxide Minerals

正Objective With the development of analytic technologies,in-situ dating on U-bearing oxide minerals(e.g.,cassiterite,rutile and baddeleyite)has been widely used in geological chronological researches and has attracted remarkable attention to explore evolution of the earth and obtain age information of various geological processes.Matrix effect     

Cosmogenic 26Al/10Be Burial Dating of the Uplift Rate of Southern Qinling Mountains since the Middle Pleistocene

正Objective The Qinling Mountains(QM)in Central China is a natural barrier that corresponds to the boundary between the southern and northern climate and environment(Gong Hujun et al.,2017).Northern QM is relatively steep,and southern QM is in contrast relatively low and gentle.Investigations have shown that the average uplift rate of