Prediction of open stope hangingwall stability using random forests

Natural Hazards - The prediction of open stope hangingwall (HW) stability is a crucial task for underground mines. In this paper, a relatively novel technique, the random forest (RF) algorithm, is...     

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.     

Comparison of two types of persistent heavy rainfall events during sixteen warm seasons in the Sichuan Basin

本文筛选出四川盆地西部(盆西型)和盆地东部(盆东型)持续性暴雨个例,深入对比两类持续性暴雨的大气环流特征和直接造成持续性暴雨的西南低涡维持的机理.四川盆地的短波槽和西太平洋副热带高压的配置有利于持续性暴雨的维持,盆东型的降水强度较盆西型个例强,高空急流位置偏南,南亚高压的强度更强,高层辐散更强,对流层中层副热带高压偏东偏南.盆西型的水汽输送主要来自南海,而盆东型的水汽输送主要来自南海和孟加拉湾.合成涡度收支的结果表明散度项是两类持续暴雨中西南涡维持的主要原因,但盆西型中,垂直平流的作用更强.     

方解石与含硅流体的水-岩反应实验及其对“硅化碳酸盐岩”储层成因的启示

近年来的油气勘探表明, 含硅热液是碳酸盐岩层系中一种重要的溶蚀性流体, 查明其与碳酸盐岩的水-岩反应机理是揭示“硅化碳酸盐岩”储层发育机制并实现储层分布预测的基础和关键问题之一。文章采用熔融毛细硅管和水热反应釜为反应腔,开展了200~375℃范围内方解石和含硅流体的水岩反应实验。利用原位拉曼光谱技术在线描述反应过程中体系组成的变化,对于淬火后的固相样品,则采用扫描电镜—能谱分析进行形貌观测和成分鉴定。首先,查明了含硅流体与方解石脱碳反应发生的温度条件。方解石和含硅流体在275℃以上反应形成CO₂,固相为非硅灰石的钙硅酸盐,其结构有待进一步揭示。该结果表明单纯的硅质组分难以在储层温度条件下与灰岩发生反应;其次,提出高盐度、富CO2流体作用是造成灰岩溶蚀的重要因素;最后, CO₂的存在能够促进硅质（含石英）沉淀。在上述实验认识的基础上,结合前人研究结果探讨了塔里木盆地顺托果勒地区“硅化碳酸盐岩”储层的发育机制。含硅热液沿深大断裂上移,途径震旦系—下奥陶统白云岩层系,其中的硅质组分将与白云石反应形成富镁硅酸盐和CO₂。CO₂是重要的酸性组分,有利于鹰山组碳酸盐的溶蚀和孔隙的保存。流体温度和压力的降低以及CO₂的存在促进了石英沉淀,并形成了大量的石英晶间孔隙。     

国内外CO2地质封存潜力评价方法研究现状

碳捕集与封存(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)技术作为缓解全球气候变暖、减少CO₂排放的有效路径之一,其潜力评估至关重要。目前CCS技术主要包括CO₂强化石油(天然气)开采封存技术、CO₂驱替煤层气封存技术以及咸水层CO₂封存技术3类。各类封存技术利用了不同的封存机制,其潜力评估方法也略有差别。油气藏封存和咸水层封存主要利用了构造圈闭储存、束缚空间储存、溶解储存、矿化储存等封存机制,煤层气封存主要利用了吸附封存机制。国内外学者和机构针对各类封存技术提出了相应的计算方法,依据其计算原理可归纳为4类: 物质平衡封存量计算法、有效容积封存量计算法、溶解机制封存量计算法以及考虑多种捕获机制的综合封存量计算法。通过对各类经典方法及其计算原理进行综述,剖析潜力封存量计算方法的内涵原理和应用场景,分析了CO₂地质封存潜力评价方法在实际应用中面临的问题,有助于提升我国的CCS潜力评价质量。     

巴里坤地震台SQ-70DSi水平摆观测数据干扰分析

基于2018—2021年巴里坤地震台水平摆观测资料,选取典型受干扰曲线,分析其变化趋势,总结仪器运行中存在的各类干扰因素。研究发现,干扰主要包括自然干扰(降雨、气压、雷击)、人为干扰(进洞巡检、调零标定、仪器维修)、仪器自身故障(数采故障、光源灯故障)等。     

北斗三号组网卫星数据质量分析及单系统定轨精度初步评估

选取2018-01-23起10 d内16个iGMAS测站观测数据,对北斗三号卫星的观测数据质量及BDS单系统精密定轨精度进行评估。初步结果表明,老信号B1I、B3I北斗三号卫星的信噪比略强于二号卫星,噪声与多路径基本相当,均在0.1 m量级,新卫星不存在星内多路径偏差。新信号B1C/L1/E1频点GPS信噪比最强,Galileo和BDS卫星相当,B2a/L5/E5a和B2b/E5b各系统基本相当;噪声及多路径方面,B1C/L1/E1频点GPS优于BDS、Galileo卫星0.1 m量级,B2a/L5/E5a和B2b/E5b各系统基本相当,均在0.1 m量级,新信号中北斗三号卫星星内多路径偏差基本消失。单系统精密定轨试验中,分别进行有/无GEO卫星策略、太阳光压模型ECOM 五/九参数策略的比较,并使用卫星激光测距数据进行独立检核。初步结果表明,有GEO卫星、ECOM五参数光压模型的定轨精度最好,C19号卫星7个重叠弧段的平均定轨精度在沿迹向、法向、径向的精度分别为32 cm、16 cm、8 cm,与试验卫星的定轨精度基本相当。     

Research on the Optimization of Capital for the Governance of Bulk Coal in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei each contributed to the comprehensive governance of bulk coal to treat bulk coal pollution in a mutually beneficial way in 2017. The cooperative game theory is used in this paper to study the environmental benefits and cost effectiveness brought about by this comprehensive governance strategy, primarily focusing on the issue of how to maximize the environmental benefits by choosing an appropriate strategy since the benefits to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are closely related. Therefore, the linear optimization, game theory and Shapley value method in the cooperative game model are used to find the ways to minimize the total governance cost of bulk coal in the three areas. In addition, the issues of how to carry out rational distribution and transfer of governance capital among the three places are explored according to the actual amounts of consumption of bulk coal, the influence of the coal burning on the PM_2.5 and the actual cost of coal governance in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in 2017. The results show that the governance task in Hebei Province is the most onerous, and requires more investment than the other two cities. Thus, it requires the support from other two cities, with the amount of increased capital required of about 600 million Yuan. At the same time, the cost saved after optimization in Tianjin is calculated to be the largest, which thus can be adjusted appropriately and allocated to Hebei for the governance of bulk coal. The model constructed in this paper can not only be used to solve the issues related to bulk coal consumption in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, but also to carry out the effective distribution of capital, by which a win-win scenario among the three places can be achieved.     

Effect of polysaccharide from Enteromorpha prolifera on maize seedlings under NaCl stress

In this study, a polysaccharide from Enteromorpha prolifera (EP) was extracted and its effect on maize seedlings under NaCl stress was investigated. Firstly, the components and structure of the EP were determined. We found that EP is a sulfated polysaccharide of high-molecular weight (Mw, 1 840 KDa) heteropolysaccharides and the main monosaccharide is rhamnose. The polysaccharide was applied to explore its effect on the growth of maize seedlings and its defense response under a salt stress. The results show that EP could promote the growth of maize seedlings under the salt stress. In addition, EP was shown able to significantly regulate membrane permeability and adjustment of osmotic substances such as soluble protein, soluble sugar, and proline, antioxidant enzymes containing superoxide dismutase, catalase, peroxidase, and ascorbate peroxidase. Therefore, EP is an effective salt-resistant substance for the growth of maize seedlings under NaCl stress.