国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展

变异点识别在区分气候变化和人类活动对水文过程的影响中具有十分重要的作用。近几十年来,国内水文序列变异点的研究逐渐发展,从最早的使用单一方法发展到由多种方法组成的水文序列变异点诊断系统和对部分方法的改进。同时,各种方法在中国各主要流域得到广泛应用,但是使用的方法不同,水文序列时间年限不同,得到的变异点的结果也不完全一致。本文将目前普遍采用的方法及在各流域的应用成果进行了系统总结,为今后水文序列变异点的方法改进及其在流域中的应用发展提供参考。     

铜仁地区陡山沱期盖帽碳酸盐岩地质地球化学特征及其成因

通过对贵州铜仁地区陡山沱期盖帽碳酸盐岩进行野外地质观察与室内岩石薄片显微镜下观察和研究,发现盖帽碳酸盐岩普遍发育有晶洞构造、帐篷构造、层状裂隙及包卷状构造等特殊沉积构造,重晶石、黄铁矿广泛发育,δ(13C)(2个研究剖面平均值分别为-4.73×10-3,-4.52×10-3)普遍显著负偏。研究区盖帽碳酸盐岩的地质地球化学特征依据"甲烷渗漏"成因假说能够较合理地解释。     

Ecologically based landscape pattern optimization in northwest of Beijing

Supported by the technologies of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS), we chose northwest of Beijing as a study area and gave priority to understanding of the spatial-temporal characteristics of landscape pattern change through visually interpreted Landsat TM images of 1989, 1996 and 2005. It is believed that there were a series of landscape ecological problems caused by city expansion: landscape ecological connectivity was low; landscape structure was simplified; the fragmentation of green land patch was more obvious on the plain areas, moreover, spatial distribution of green land was unbalanced. For this reason, this study adopted accumulative cost distance model, combined with ecosystem services and spatial interactions of landscape types, analyzed the spatial difference of the ecological function and the compactness of landscape structure in the study area, and further discussed the landscape pattern optimization proposal. We find that it is essential to protect and establish ecological sources, to establish urban ecological corridors, and to establish ecological nodes at the landscape ecological strategic positions so as to intensify spatial relationships among landscape elements and maintain continuity of landscape ecological process and pattern in the course of city expansion. The methods and final results from this study are expected to be useful for landscape ecological planning in Beijing region.     

On stress-forecasting strategy of earthquakes from stress buildup,stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS) based on numerical approach

Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), used for monitoring crust deformation, are found to be very promising in earthquake prediction subject to stress-forecasting. However, it is recognized that unless we can give reasonable explanations of these curious precursory phenomena that continue to be serendipitously observed from time to time, such high technology of GPS or InSAR is difficult to be efficiently used. Therefore, a proper model revealing the relation between earthquake evolution and stress variation, such as the phenomena of stress buildup, stress shadow and stress transfer (SSS), is crucial to the GPS or InSAR based earthquake prediction. Here we address this question through a numerical approach of earthquake development using an intuitive physical model with a map-like configuration of discontinuous fault system. The simulation provides a physical basis for the principle of stress-forecasting of earthquakes based on SSS and for the application of GPS or InSAR in earthquake prediction. The observed SSS associated phenomena with images of stress distribution during the failure process can be continuously simulated. It is shown that the SSS are better indicators of earthquake precursors than that of seismic foreshocks, suggesting a predictability of earthquakes based on stress-forecasting strategy.     

天水市干旱气候变化特征及粮食作物结构调整

分析了天水市1960-2005年干旱气候特征,包括温度、降水等气候因子及土壤水分、干旱频次等变化特点。结果表明,20世纪90年代为近46 a来降水的最低值,进入21世纪后,降水变率明显增大。气温自20世纪60年代总体呈上升趋势,特别是90年代以来上升趋势明显,土壤蒸散发加大。20世纪90年代土壤含水量最少,水分亏缺最为严重,春旱、初夏旱、伏旱出现几率最多。根据46 a来干旱气候变化特点及其对主要粮食作物生长的影响,引进影响系数,对主要夏、秋粮作物种植风险程度进行评估,并运用线性风险决策模式, 提出适应干旱气候特点的当地主要粮食作物种植比例调整方案。     

Molecular identification of scallop planktonic larvae using species-specific microsatellites

The identification of scallop larvae is essential to understand the population structure and community dynamics and to assess the potential environmental impacts caused by scallop larvae released or escaped. However, the larvae identification by morphological characteristics is notoriously difficult, mainly due to the small size （usually being less than 150 μm） and vague morphological characteristics among different scallop species. A simple and accurate molecular method was developed to identify four economically farmed scallop species, the Zhikong scallop Chlamys farreri, the noble scallop C. nobilis, the bay scallop Argopecten irradians and the Yesso scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis. The tests used the high degree of species-specific microsatellite markers, which was specified by transferability analyses, assessed by reference individuals and evaluated by BLAST searches. The sensitivity test indicated that the species-specific microsatellites were sensitive enough for the detection of 1% -2% larvae in mixed plankton samples. Larvae collected from scallop hatcheries and their effluents and from the artificially controlled crosses were well identified to the species/hybrid level. The results demonstrated that the one-step PCR-based assay was technically simple, inexpensive and robust in identification analyses, and also less sensitive to initial quality of template DNA extracted from the ethanol-preserved samples for several years.     

香港海域2004年浮游植物群落结构特征

根据 2004 年冬、春、夏和秋季对香港海域(东部、中部、西部和南部水域共取 7 个站位)的浮游植物进行采样调查,分析了香港海域浮游植物的种类组成、丰度、优势种、群落组成、多样性和均匀度等群落特征.2004 年香港海域的浮游植物共鉴定了 73 属 196 种(含变种和变型),其中潜在赤潮种 88 种,丰度范围在 9.17 × 103 cells / L ～ 8.56 × 106 cells / L之间,平均值为 9.51 × 105 cells / L.丰度的周年变化曲线呈单峰型,夏季高,秋冬季节低.香港海域的浮游植物种类多样性较高,以暖水性和广分布性种类为主;浮游植物群落与上世纪 70 年代相比,仍以硅藻为主导,但甲藻和微型隐藻的优势有所增加.由于海洋环境特点的不同,香港不同海域的群落组成差异显著.     

利用位置与云计算建立电离层TEC主动式播发平台

提出了利用地理位置信息与云计算模式的电离层总电子含量主动式播发方式,并建设了相应的应用平台。该平台采用了“虚实”组合服务器,将科学计算部分与用户交互分离,充分发挥物理服务器的计算效能,大大提升了平台服务的性能,可根据用户数量进行弹性的服务器配置从而节省平台运行的成本,同时具备多个虚拟服务器备份从而实现平台持续安全运行,并能够有效控制针对特定时空下电离层总电子含量的精度,根据需求进行相应的部署即可服务于区域或者全球用户。     

成矿地质体找矿预测理论与方法在矿产勘查中的应用

成矿地质体找矿预测理论与方法的创建为中国勘查区找矿工作提供了理论指导和方法遵循, 已广泛应用于矿集区、老矿山深部与外围的找矿预测和矿产勘查中。在河南省银洞坡金银矿集区、甘肃省早子沟金矿、四川省拉拉铜矿集区等83个矿集区和168座矿山取得了良好的找矿效果。该理论方法的核心是构建成矿地质体-成矿构造和成矿结构面-成矿作用特征标志"三位一体"找矿预测地质模型。总结了应用成矿地质体找矿预测理论与方法开展找矿预测工作的流程和要点: 开展预研究提出找矿思路, 研究典型矿床确定主攻矿床类型; 研究成矿地质体确定找矿方向, 研究成矿构造与成矿结构面确定矿体赋存位置, 研究成矿作用特征标志提供矿体赋存依据, 构建找矿预测地质模型确定成矿作用中心; 综合地质、物探、化探方法, 预测深部矿体空间位置; 探矿工程验证实现找矿突破。本次研究为找矿预测工作提供了思路和示范, 为新一轮找矿突破战略行动提供了支撑服务。     

基于碎屑锆石特征的雅鲁藏布江山南宽谷风成沙丘物源示踪

雅鲁藏布江河谷（尤其是"一江两河"区域）风沙化较为严重,制约了当地社会经济的可持续发展,追踪河谷风沙来源对当地风沙治理意义重大。本研究聚焦于拉萨贡嘎机场附近的山南宽谷风沙地貌,采集2个河沙、3个风成沙丘和1个坡积物样品,以及引用前人研究的2个河沙样品。基于碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄及微量元素地球化学特征,进行沙源示踪研究,旨在为当地风沙治理提供科学依据。对360颗锆石进行LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年,获得322个谐和年龄。分析结果表明,河沙、风成沙丘及坡积物样品碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄分布特征高度相似,主要峰值与冈底斯岩浆弧新生代的两期岩浆活动一一对应;非矩阵多维标度统计技术（MDS）分析也证实了样品与冈底斯岩浆弧有良好的亲缘性;地球化学判别图解显示锆石具有亏损轻稀土元素、富集重稀土元素、明显正Ce异常和明显负Eu异常的特征,亦指示其岩浆成因,表明冈底斯岩浆弧为沙丘、河沙与坡积物中碎屑锆石的主要来源。依据不同类型样品碎屑锆石年龄对比以及锆石年龄相似程度对比,结果发现：1）雅鲁藏布江地区风沙地貌主要是由于枯水季河床水位下降,导致河岸和河漫滩出露地表,就地起沙吹扬到山坡上所形成;2）研究区河沙并非主要从上游搬运而来,更多是拉萨河搬运汇入的泥沙。依据沙源分析结果,欲解决河谷风沙化问题,首要应在河岸和河漫滩种植适宜当地气候的耐旱植物固定河床上的泥沙,这是最直接有效的手段。