两种耦合模糊控制的局地化方法研究

在集合数据同化过程中,由于远距离的观测与同化状态之间存在着虚假相关,局地化方法受到广泛关注.此外,由于集合数的限制,容易引起欠采样和协方差被低估等现象,使得滤波效果欠佳.因此,提出模糊控制算法,模糊控制算法主要用于判断观测点与状态更新点之间的距离来匹配相应的观测权重,进而调整局地化系数来更新背景误差协方差和观测误差协方差矩阵,从而得到有效的状态估计.基于背景误差协方差局地化方法和观测误差协方差局地化方法,耦合模糊控制,形成了新的算法—模糊控制的背景误差协方差局地化方法和模糊控制的观测误差协方差局地化方法.利用Lorenz-96模型,在小集合数和局地化半径下,得出模糊控制的背景误差协方差局地化方法和模糊控制的观测误差协方差局地化方法有较好的同化性能.通过分析泰勒图谱甄别出新算法与观测点具有高度的相关性以及较小的空间变异性.最后,在不同维数的模糊控制器下,新算法的有效性进一步得到验证.为今后数据同化误差处理方面提供了良好的研究平台.     

辽代以前北京城址变迁初探

北京城历史悠久,辽代以后的城址位置变迁已基本考据清晰,而对于辽代以前的情况尚存在较多的模糊之处,当前一般认为是起源于广安门一带.重点对辽代以前的三期北京城(前期蓟城、后期蓟城、唐幽州)的城墙位置及变迁时间分别进行了一定的考证.首先对本区的历史自然地理条件进行了一定的分析,据此作为探讨北京城市发展变迁规律的基础.根据地铁施工的地层资料,发现了疑似"蓟丘",结合古文献分析认为本区最早出现的城市——前期蓟城应位于莲花池湖区域,推测后来由于莲花池的出现,大致于公元227—294年之间迁到广安门一带的后期蓟城.分析认为后期蓟城与唐幽州并非以往所认为的前后一致,而是有过扩城.根据前人研究成果及墓志铭中相关的方位记载,对后期蓟城与唐幽州的城墙位置分别进行了推定,对城墙方位发生改变的时间进行了界定,初步得出约在公元752年,时任幽州节度使安禄山进行了一次扩城.     

基于移动网格点云精简算法的研究

针对三维激光点云数据精简问题,提出一种基于移动网格划分的精简算法。基本思想是首先将点云模型空间网格化,再依据距离阈值对网格进行二次网格划分,利用权重值大小筛选出合适点,最后移动点云模型包围盒最小点位置,重新进行二次网格划分和点云筛选,最终完成点云的精简。实验得出,可移动网格划分的点云精简算法在精简效果与时间效率上均具有显著的优势。     

基于边界保留的k-means聚类点云精简算法研究

传统的栅格法与曲率法对数据模型进行精简时很容易剔除特征点,具有较高的误判率,导致精简后的数据不能较好地突出点云数据的特征,使重构后的实体模型精度下降。文中提出基于边界保留的k-means聚类算法对点云进行精简。该算法首先使用k-d树进行质心初始化,然后使用X-Y边界提取算法来保留边界完整性,最后根据曲率高低对簇进行细分,使在高曲率区域保留必要多的点,在低曲率地方保留一些均匀分布的点。实验验证该方法优于传统的栅格法与曲率法。     

Effect of model errors in ambient air humidity on the aerosol optical depth obtained via aerosol hygroscopicity in eastern China in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project datasets

当前全球气候模式普遍低估中国东部气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)。本文表明,模式低估中国东部地表大气相对湿度是AOD低估的原因之一。研究基于国际大气化学气候模式比较计划的干气溶胶质量浓度结果,用再分析湿度数据替换模拟湿度以计算AOD变化。结果表明,替换后我国大气相对湿度增加,多模式平均的华南年均AOD因此增长45%,华北6-8月AOD增长33%。不同模式采用相似的硫酸盐吸湿增长曲线。相对湿度低估对AOD模拟影响程度主要受吸湿颗粒质量浓度和相对湿度概率分布影响,该结论有助于解释我国AOD模拟误差。     

汶川震区暴雨泥石流激发雨型特征

汶川地震后暴雨诱发的泥石流不断增加,通过收集整理降雨资料,分析汶川震区不同地域泥石流暴发的激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量变化过程,揭示震区暴雨泥石流的激发雨型特征,为暴雨泥石流的预报提供科学依据。研究结果表明,汶川震区的暴雨泥石流激发雨型可分为短期突然降雨型、中期持续降雨型和长期间断降雨型3种类型,主要表现为引发泥石流的激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量的不同。暴雨泥石流的形成机制体现为降雨导致流域内松散土体渗透、饱和及侵蚀移动的过程。激发雨型与激发雨强及前期有效累计降雨量存在相关关系,短期突然降雨型的激发雨强最大,前期有效累计降雨量最少;中期持续降雨型的激发雨强居中,前期有效累计降雨量最多;长期间断降雨型的激发雨强最小,前期有效累计降雨量居中。对四川茂县叠溪镇新磨村突发山体高位垮塌碎屑流进行验证,初步判定是由长期间断降雨型引发岩体抗剪强度降低而引起的。对不同激发雨型特征的研究能够为汶川震区泥石流监测预警提供科学依据。     

内蒙古贺根山蛇绿岩中玄武岩锆石U-Pb年龄、地球化学特征及其地质意义

贺根山蛇绿岩（套）中发育有气孔杏仁状玄武岩,为蛇绿岩套的组成部分。通过对其锆石U-Pb测年,其加权平均年龄为395.9 Ma±3.0 Ma,结合区域地质背景,认为贺根山蛇绿岩（套）形成时代为中泥盆世—早石炭世。玄武岩为亚碱性系列,具有LREE亏损、类似N-MORB的稀土配分模式,同时具备大洋玄武岩和岛弧玄武岩特征,认为贺根山蛇绿岩（套）应形成于弧后盆地;通过与现代典型Mariana洋内弧后盆地和Okinawa陆缘弧后盆地的玄武岩以及同属中亚造山带的新疆库尔提洋内弧后盆地蛇绿岩对比,发现贺根山玄武岩同Mariana玄武岩和库尔提蛇绿岩更加类似,由此认为贺根山蛇绿岩（套）很可能形成于洋内弧后盆地环境,而非大陆边缘弧后盆地环境。     

Application of Partial Least Squares Regression in Multimodal Integrated Forecasting of Water Vapor and Surface Air Temperature

The use of a new multi model integration method of Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) can completely eliminate the multicollinearity features to improve multi model’s integrated forecasting results of the humidity and temperature. Based on the four centers’ ensemble forecast results, namely, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the UK Met Office (UKMO), we built a 2012 multi mode (25°~60°N, 60°~150°E) 24 ~168 hours forecast time (interval 24 hours) multi model for humidity and temperature and used the four methods, like ensemble average (BREM) for eliminating the deviation, a simple set of average (EMN), Super Ensemble (SUP) and Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) for ground temperature multi model integration. We used the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (cor) to determine the effect of more modes of integration and to predict a short course of cold. The two prediction results showed that the Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) was the best multi model integrated method, more superior than the other three single modes and compared with the other three methods, it showed better prediction performance, which has certain value and application prospect.     

Analysis of Cloud Scale Error of Low Resolution Satellite Based on GF-4 and Its Influence on Downward Radiation Calculation

In order to study the scale error of low resolution meteorological satellite cloud detection and its impact on the calculation of downlink radiation, cloud detection using high resolution stationary satellite GF-4 data and error analysis were carried out. Firstly, the cloud detection of GF-4 data is carried out by using visible channel threshold method and time series method, and the error of cloud detection results of Himawari-8 and FY-2 (FY-2G, FY-2E) is analyzed based on the results of GF-4 cloud detection.In the study area, FY-2G, FY-2E and Himawari-8 cloud images could distinguish the clouds and clear sky. The main reason for the error was the scale effect produced by different spatial resolution satellites(the differences caused by cloud detection algorithms are not discussed here).Most of the errors occurred in the areas of thin clouds and broken clouds.High resolution data could detect broken clouds, while low resolution data lead to false and missed detection. On this basis, the error of remote sensing calculation of short wave radiation was analyzed,and it was found that the error of the actual cloud amount in the pixel would bring significant error to the estimation of the downward radiation.The relative error of the instantaneous downward radiation in the selected test area was -173.52%, and the maximum relative error of shortwave radiation was -20.20%.The results show that the high resolution stationary satellite data can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the downlink shortwave radiation in the regions with more broken clouds.     

河南省崤山地区崤山岩群的建立及其与邻区对比

河南省崤山地区的地层具典型地台型双层结构,其结晶基底为一套中深变质岩系,前人将其解体为两部分:一部分为太古宙变形变质花岗岩系(TTG--G),不具地层意义;另一部分为呈残留顶盖或包体形式残存于TTG--G中的壳岩系,并将其划分为新太古代兰树沟岩组和杨寺沟岩组。通过2009—2014年开展的1∶5万矿产地质调查工作,将这一套表壳岩新建为新太古代崤山岩群,可与登封地区的新太古代登封岩群对比。