吉林省一次强对流天气的中尺度分析

作者对１９９３年８月１２日发生在吉林省境内的一次龙卷风天气进行了分析。结果表明：在出现龙卷风之前和形成初期，地面风场，高空环流形势，Ｑ↑→矢量散度，对流稳定度和能量场诸方面都有表现，可提供预报信息。     

南亚热带富营养化抽水型水库轮虫的组成与动态

大镜山水库位于广东省珠海市,是一座供应珠海市和澳门特别行政区饮水的抽水型中型水库.抽水改变了水体的水动力过程以及水体生态系统的动态过程.为了解这一动态过程中轮虫的群落结构及环境冈子对轮虫的影响,于2005年1-12月,每月一次对该水库敞水区进行了采样调查.共采集到轮虫32种,其中,臂尾轮科12种,异尾轮科、腔轮科各有4种,它们主要是热带、亚热带地区的常见种和优势种类.热带龟甲轮虫(Keratella tropica)、对棘异尾轮虫(Trichocerea stylata)、螺形龟甲轮虫(Keratella cochlearis)、迈氏三肢轮虫(Filinia maior)、裂痕龟纹轮虫(Anuraeopsis fissa)、角突臂尾轮虫(Brachionus angularis)、剪形臂尾轮虫(Brachionus forficula)、卵形无柄轮虫(Ascomorpha ovalis)、敞水胶鞘轮虫(Collotheea pelagiea)和卜氏品囊轮虫(Asplanchna brightwelli)为优势种,这些优势种个体小、具有硬被甲.轮虫的多样性指数在0.29-0.81之间变动,与相同营养水平的湖泊相比,大镜山水库轮虫的种类数和多样性指数均较低,轮虫丰度和生物量的分布范围分别为21-1094ind./L和4.04-1127μg/L,高峰期均出现在2月和5月,二者具有相似的动态特征.轮虫个体的大小范围在50-620μm之间,轮虫种类和丰度的组成均以200μm以下的小型个体为主,如裂痕龟纹轮虫、角突臂尾轮虫等,轮虫生物量组成主要是以200-400μm的中型个体为主,如卜氏晶囊轮虫、萼花臂尾轮虫(Brachionus Calyeiflorus)等,温度、透明度、浮游植物生物量和蓝藻生物量是影响水库轮虫群落结构特征和动态的主要环境因子.     

郑州市大雾气候特点及一次个例分析

为了了解近20 a郑州市大雾的时空变化特征,根据1980-2005年郑州市大雾观测记录,统计分析了这一时期郑州市大雾的变化特点及产生大雾时的气象要素特征;并利用河南省地面和探空观测资料以及NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,从要素场、大气稳定度等方面,对2007年12月25-27日郑州市大雾形成原因进行了分析.结果表明:郑州市年雾日数呈下降趋势,每月都可以出现大雾,但12月最多,6月最少.降水后较大的相对湿度、稳定的大气层结以及近地层较小风速等是大雾形成的必要条件.     

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

Experimental Investigation of Turbulent Momentum Transfer in a Neutral Boundary Layer over a Rough Surface

The turbulent characteristics of the neutral boundary layer developing over rough surfaces are not well predicted with operational weather-forecasting models. The problem is attributed to inadequate mixing-length models, to the anisotropy of the flow and to a lack of controlled experimental data against which to validate numerical studies. Therefore, in order to address directly the modelling difficulties for the development of a neutral boundary layer over rough surfaces, and to investigate the turbulent momentum transfer of such a layer, a set of hydraulic flume experiments were carried out. In the experiments, the mean and turbulent quantities were measured by a particle image velocimetry (PIV) technique. The measured velocity variances and fluxes \({(\overline{{u_{i}^{\prime}}{u_{j}^{\prime}}})}\) in longitudinal vertical planes allowed the vertical and longitudinal gradients (?/?z and ?/?x) of the mean and turbulent quantities (fluxes, variances and third-order moments) to be evaluated and the terms of the evolution equations for ?e/?t, \({\partial \overline{u^{\prime 2}}/\partial t}\), \({\partial \overline{w^{\prime 2}}/\partial t}\) and \({\partial \overline{{u^{\prime}}{w^{\prime}}}/\partial t}\) to be quantified, where e is the turbulent kinetic energy. The results show that the pressure-correlation terms allow the turbulent energy to be transferred equitably from \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}^{2}}}\) to \({\overline{{w^{\prime}}^{2}}}\). It appears that the repartition between the constitutive terms of the budget of e, \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}^{2}}}\), \({\overline{{w^{\prime}}^{2}}}\) and \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}{w^{\prime}}}}\) is not significantly affected by the development of the rough neutral boundary layer. For the whole evolution, the transfers of energy are governed by the same terms that are also very similar to the smooth-wall case. The PIV measurements also allowed the spatial integral scales to be computed directly and to be compared with the dissipative and mixing length scales, which were also computed from the data.     

Scaling of Wall-Normal Turbulence Intensity and Vertical Eddy Structures in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

Adequate high-quality data on three-dimensional velocities in the atmospheric surface layer (height \(\delta \)) were acquired in the field at the Qingtu Lake Observation Array. The measurement range occupies nearly the entire logarithmic layer from approximately \(0.006\delta \)–\(0.2\delta \). The turbulence intensity and eddy structures of the velocity fluctuations in the logarithmic region were primarily analyzed, and their variations in the z (wall-normal) direction were revealed. The primary finding was that the turbulent intensity of wall-normal velocity fluctuations exhibits a sharp upswing in the logarithmic region, which differs from classic scaling law and laboratory results. The upswing of the wall-normal turbulence intensity in the logarithmic region is deemed to be linear based on an ensemble of 20 sets of data. In addition, the wall-normal extent of the correlated structures and wall-normal spectra were compared to low Reynolds number results in the laboratory.     

北天山重点监视区地下流体临震前兆标志探讨

在“八五”短临预报和“九五”中短期（１年尺度）前兆研究的基础上,运用整点值、日测值、原始曲线法、一阶差分法和日工法,系统地分析了北天山１９８５年以来的地下流体前兆观测资料,研究了在此期间控制区范围内发生的７次Ｍs５.０级以上中强地震前临丑异常显示特征,探索了中强地震发生前地下流体临震前兆标志,表明只要正确地识别地震前兆的中长期向中短期、短期、临震前兆过渡的标志,并进行短临跟踪,是可以实现临震预报的。     

断层气CO2测定新方法与张北—尚义6.2级地震预报

简要介绍了断层气ＣＯ２快速测定法的特点,分析了近７年来在怀来后赤窑断层气ＣＯ２观测点测得的９个４级以上地震的ＣＯ２前兆异常特征。张北－尚义地震前４７天,断层气ＣＯ２出现突升异常,异常峰值是背景值的１０倍左右,据此在震前１２天对这次地震提出了较好的短临预报意见。     

Some Insights into Topographic,Elastic and Self-gravitation Interaction in Modelling Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes in Active Volcanic Areas

Surface displacements and gravity changes due to volcanic sources are influenced by medium properties. We investigate topographic, elastic and self-gravitation interaction in order to outline the major factors that are significant in data modelling. While elastic-gravitational models can provide a suitable approximation to problems of volcanic loading in areas where topographic relief is negligible, for prominent volcanoes the rough topography could affect deformation and gravity changes to a greater extent than self-gravitation. This fact requires the selection, depending on local relief, of a suitable model for use in the interpretation of surface precursors of volcanic activity. We use the three-dimensional Indirect Boundary Element Method to examine the effects of topography on deformation and gravity changes in models of magma chamber inflation/deflation. Topography has a significant effect on predicted surface deformation and gravity changes. Both the magnitude and pattern of the geodetic signals are significantly different compared to half-space solutions. Thus, failure to account for topographic effects in areas of prominent relief can bias the estimate of volcanic source parameters, since the magnitude and pattern of deformation and gravity changes depend on such effects.     

农牧交错带气候变化对土地利用的影响及对策——以内蒙古伊金霍洛旗为例

文章讨论了农牧交错带典型区域的气候变化特点,并运用GIS技术分析了区域土地利用变化。在此基础上,分析了气候变化对土地利用结构的影响,并提出了应对策略。这些对策将促进农牧交错带社会经济增长和生态环境的改善,对实现区域的可持续发展具有重要意义。