长江巨洪前期物理因子的配置

提出了长江巨洪前期物理因子配置的概念，在每一次巨洪发生之前，影响巨洪的主要物理因子之间一般都会表现出相似的特征，即出现一些固有的配置，这些配置正是长江发生巨洪的强信号，对长江巨洪的预测研究具有重要的指示作用。     

区域可持续发展评价:进展与展望

可持续发展的评价是目前可持续发展研究的热点和前沿。当前评价可持续发展的单项指标和指标体系在指标与可持续性的关系、指标权重的选择、指标的定量化、可持续性的总体判别方法、资本替代性与替代速度、指标阈值的确定等方面具有不同的局限性 ,这也是可持续发展评价的主要难点。可持续发展的评价必然要落实到不同尺度的空间地理单元上 ,区域发展是评价的对象 ,因而可持续发展的评价必然具有显著的区域性 ,不同区域的评价指标或指标体系必然会有所不同。社会、经济与人口的发展是人类社会发展的主要目标 ,而发展的可持续性依赖于自然环境的质量 ,包括自然资源的再生或替代、生命支持系统与生物多样性的维持或改善。据此 ,论文构建了区域可持续发展评价的理论框架和发展——可持续性二维评价坐标体系 ,并提出了“自上而下”和“自下而上”的指标遴选方法。     

滇池农村固体废物和化肥流失治理试验研究

怎样合理处置农村固体废物和减少农田化肥流失一直是农村面源污染控制的难题之一。该研究将农村固体废物的处理与减少化肥施用措施有机结合，利用微生物复合发酵剂和农村固体废物生产活性肥料，开展了一系列农业种植试验和数据监测，在此基础上，提出了一套实用性强、效果好的控制农业固体废物和化肥流失污染的对策措施。     

Sedimentary cycles of trace elements in Salawusu River Valley since 150 ka BP

The paper makes some analyses on 11 trace elements in the Milanggouwan stratigraphical section in the Salawusu River valley, which is regarded as a prototype geology-palaeoclimate record since 150 ka BP. The results show that the content and variation of trace elements has experienced remarkably regular changes in the pace with coarse and fine sedimentary cycles of palaeo-aeolian sands to its overlying fluvio-lacustrine facies or/and palaeosols. The trace elements with chemical properties of relatively active (V, Sr, Cu, Ni, As) and relatively stable (P, Pb, Rb, Mn, Nb, Zr) are a manifestation of the corresponding 27 changeable cycles between peak and valley values, appearing a multi-fiuctuational process line of relative gathering and migration since then. The low numerical value distribution of these two types of trace elements in the aeolian sand facies represents erosion and accumulation under wind force during the cold-dry climate. Whereas their enrichments in both fluvio-lacustrine facies and palaeosols are related to the valley’s special low-lying physiognomic position between the Ordos Plateau and the Loess Plateau under the warm and humid climate conditions. The above relatively migrated and gathered change of the trace elements is the result of 27 climatic cycles of cold-dry and warm-humid, which is probably caused by repeated alternations of winter monsoon and summer monsoon in the Mu Us Sandy Land influenced by the climate vicissitudes in northern hemisphere during glacial and interglacial periods since 150 ka BP.     

Statistical characteristics of chlorophyll-a concentration in Hong Kong′s coastal waters

In this paper seven of the ten Water Control Zones (WCZs) in Hong Kong′s coastal waters with monthly or bi-weekly sampling data of 17 parameters collected at 37 monitoring stations from 1988 to 1999 were selected to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of chlorophyll-a and its influencing factors. Cluster analysis was employed to group the monitoring stations based on the structure of the data set. Multiple step regression was employed to determine the significant influencing factors of chlorophyll-a level. The results suggest that all the monitoring stations could be grouped into two clusters. Cluster I with frequent red tide incidents comprises two WCZs which aresemi-enclosed bays. Cluster II with less red tide occurrence comprises the other five WCZs in an estuarine environment in the west. For both clusters, the organic contents indicator, BOD5, was a common significant influencing factor of the chlorophyll-a level. Nitrogen and light penetration condition related to turbidity, total volatile solids and suspended solids had more influence on the cholophyll-a level in Cluster I than in Cluster II, while phosphorus and oceanographic conditions associated with salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH were more important in Cluster II than in Cluster 1. Generally, there was a higher average chlorophyll-a level in winter and autumn in a year.The chlorophyll-a level was much higher in Cluster I than in Cluster II among all seasons. Although the chlorophyll-a concentration had great variations from place to place in Hong Kong′s coastal waters, it seemed to have a common long term fluctuation period of 8-10 years with a high-low-high variation in the period in the whole region, which might be influenced by other factors of global scale.     

On the spatial relationship between landslides and causative factors on Lantau Island, Hong Kong

This paper presents a statistical approach to study the spatial relationship between landslides and their causative factors at the regional level. The approach is based on digital databases, and incorporates such methods as statistics, spatial pattern analysis, and interactive mapping. Firstly, the authors propose an object-oriented conceptual model for describing a landslide event, and a combined database of landslides and environmental factors is constructed by integrating the various databases within such a conceptual framework. The statistical histogram, spatial overlay, and dynamic mapping methods are linked together to interactively evaluate the spatial pattern of the relationship between landslides and their causative factors. A case study of an extreme event in 1993 on Lantau Island indicates that rainfall intensity and the migration of the center of the rainstorm greatly influence the occurrence of landslides on Lantau Island. A regional difference in the relationship between landslides and topography is identified. Most of the landslides in the middle and western parts of the island occurred on slopes with slope angles of 25–35°, while in the eastern part, the corresponding range is 30–35°. Overlaying landslide data with land cover reveals that a large number of landslides occurred in the bareland and shrub-covered area, and in the transition zones between different vegetation types. The proposed approach can be used not only to analyze the general characteristics of such a relationship, but also to depict its spatial distribution and variation, thereby providing a sound basis for regional landslide prediction.     

当前地震台站财务管理工作之浅见

本文简要介绍了台站财务管理的现状 ,针对目前台站管理中出现的一些问题 ,阐明加强台站财务管理与会计核算改革的必要性 ,并粗略提出地震台站财务管理工作的改革方向与对策。     

岫岩-海城5.4级地震前小震震源机制解与记录特征分析

采用Pn、Pg初始波初动符号，利用乌尔夫网上半球投影，用作图方法求解了岫岩－海城震区（1999年1月－1999年11月29日）主震前辽宁数字地震台网记录（ML≥2.5)的41个小震的震源机制参数。结合前震记录的某些特征，对主震前应力方向的时空变化，震源错动性质进行分析和讨论。     

最大熵原理与地震频度-震级关系

地震是一种随机事件 ,它的发生具有极大的不确定性 ,因而可以用熵来进行描述。地震以最无序的方式在各地发生 ,意味着地震熵达到了极大值。古登堡 (Gutenberg)和里克特 (Richter)根据资料和经验得出的地震频度 -震级关系式实际上是在给定的约束条件下 ,当地震熵取极大值时得到的一种负指数分布。文中从最大熵原理得出了同一形式的地震频度 -震级关系 ,使它的来源从理论上得到了解释