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941.
942.
以巴南地震台钻孔应变某一时段观测资料异常变化为例,指出观测仪器元件标定格值是影响钻孔应变观测数据的重要参数,与固体潮汐幅度成反比例关系,且格值变化也可能是改变钻孔应变趋势形态的一种因素。文中分析格值与应变观测数据之间的物理机制,校正恢复异常时段观测曲线,为钻孔应变异常干扰识别工作提供参考。 相似文献
943.
Binquan?LiEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Zhongmin?Liang Yingqing?He Lin?Hu Weimin?Zhao Kumud?Acharya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1045-1059
Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations. 相似文献
944.
针对核电厂CAP1400核岛结构地震反应问题,构建了核岛屏蔽厂房和辅助厂房整体结构的3个分析模型:原型和1/16、1/40缩尺模型,并在AP000谱和RG1.60谱地震动输入下进行了有限元模拟对比分析,探讨了振动台试验模型缩尺处理的合理性和精确性。研究表明,基于缩尺模型得到的结构自振频率相对于原型结构模型有所降低,降低幅度在8.5%以内;结构模型的缩尺对结构反应峰值加速度和高频(大于3Hz)加速度反应谱的影响较为显著,但对较低频(小于3Hz)的加速度反应谱影响较小;模型缩尺对结构不同方向反应的影响中,刚度越大的方向其影响越大。进一步将结构模型数值模拟结果与1/16缩尺模型的振动台试验结果进行了比较分析,试验给出的结构自振频率远低于模型数值模拟结果,但原型和1/16缩尺模型数值模拟得到的结构反应均与试验结果较为接近。基于模型数值模拟和振动台试验研究,认为对于缩尺比1/16或更大的模型可以忽略模型的缩尺效应。 相似文献
945.
在城市浅层地震勘探数据采集中,地震测线经常会遇到河流、桥、交叉路口等地表障碍。为了尽量减小地表障碍造成的影响,需要对观测系统作变观设计。作者分析总结了城市浅层地震勘探中常见障碍以及过障碍变观模式,并开发了浅层地震过障碍变观设计软件,利用此软件可在采集现场快捷地进行过障碍变观。将这种方法应用于实际工作中,有效减小了资料缺失造成的影响,提高了资料的信噪比。该软件能够根据实际工作环境和设备条件在野外现场对观测系统进行灵活变观,设计出合理的过障碍观测系统,有效地提高了变观设计的效率。 相似文献
946.
The shales of the Qiongzhusi Formation and Wufeng–Longmaxi Formations at Sichuan Basin and surrounding areas are presently the most important stratigraphic horizons for shale gas exploration and development in China. However, the regional characteristics of the seismic elastic properties need to be better determined. The ultrasonic velocities of shale samples were measured under dry conditions and the relations between elastic properties and petrology were systemically analyzed. The results suggest that 1) the effective porosity is positively correlated with clay content but negatively correlated with brittle minerals, 2) the dry shale matrix consists of clays, quartz, feldspars, and carbonates, and 3) organic matter and pyrite are in the pore spaces, weakly coupled with the shale matrix. Thus, by assuming that all connected pores are only present in the clay minerals and using the Gassmann substitution method to calculate the elastic effect of organic matter and pyrite in the pores, a relatively simple rock-physics model was constructed by combining the self-consistent approximation (SCA), the differential effective medium (DEM), and Gassmann’s equation. In addition, the effective pore aspect ratio was adopted from the sample averages or estimated from the carbonate content. The proposed model was used to predict the P-wave velocities and generally matched the ultrasonic measurements very well. 相似文献
947.
The conventional acoustic logging interpretation method, which is based on vertical wells that penetrate isotropic formations, is not suitable for horizontal and deviated wells penetrating anisotropic formations. This unsuitability is because during horizontal and deviated well drilling, cuttings will splash on the well wall or fall into the borehole bottom and form a thin bed of cuttings. In addition, the high velocity layers at different depths and intrinsic anisotropy may affect acoustic logging measurements. In this study, we examine how these factors affect the acoustic wave slowness measured in horizontal and deviated wells that are surrounded by an anisotropic medium using numerical simulation. We use the staggered-grid finite difference method in time domain (FDTD) combined with hybrid-PML. First, we acquire the acoustic slowness using a simulated array logging system, and then, we analyze how various factors affect acoustic slowness measurements and the differences between the effects of these factors. The factors considered are high-velocity layers, thin beds of cuttings, dipping angle, formation thickness, and anisotropy. The simulation results show that these factors affect acoustic wave slowness measurements differently. We observe that when the wavelength is much smaller than the distance between the borehole wall and high velocity layer, the true slowness of the formation could be acquired. When the wavelengths are of the same order (i.e., in the near-field scenarios), the geometrical acoustics theory is no longer applicable. Furthermore, when a thin bed of cuttings exists at the bottom of the borehole, Fermat's principle is still applicable, and true slowness can be acquired. In anisotropic formations, the measured slowness changes with increments in the dipping angle. Finally, for a measurement system with specific spacing, the slowness of a thin target layer can be acquired when the distance covered by the logging tool is sufficiently long. Based on systematical simulations with different dipping angles and anisotropy in homogenous TI media, slowness estimation charts are established to quantitatively determine the slowness at any dipping angle and for any value of the anisotropic ratio. Synthetic examples with different acoustic logging tools and different elastic parameters demonstrate that the acoustic slowness estimation method can be conveniently applied to horizontal and deviated wells in TI formations with high accuracy. 相似文献
948.
目前,太空碎片的天基探测方法一般是激光雷达法.由于激光雷达的辐射频率一般为可见光或红外波段,在分辨厘米量级的太空碎片时具有一定的优势.但激光雷达在探测时也面临一些客观问题:即(1)难以捕捉快速移动的太空碎片;(2)对目标体穿透能力低;(3)外层空间的强干扰环境对激光雷达的不良影响等.这些问题在一定程度上限制了激光雷达在太空碎片探测方面的应用.本文针对太空碎片体积小、预警距离远和强干扰环境等特点,提出使用高性能瞬变电磁辐射源对远距离、小尺度的太空碎片进行探测.通过三维矢量有限元方法,分析了利用高性能瞬变电磁辐射源的优点,对比不同瞬变电磁辐射源的幅频特性,从发射机理上证明高性能瞬变电磁辐射源在辐射能力与频率带宽方面都优于传统瞬变电磁辐射源.并通过调整脉冲宽度,得到最适合探测本文太空碎片模型的辐射脉冲.最后通过电场分布图和多测道图对太空碎片的明显电场分异结果,证实了高性能瞬变电磁辐射源在探测远距离、小尺度太空碎片方面的有效性. 相似文献
949.
垂直气柱中大气微量成分总含量的反演 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
提出了一种利用地面中等光谱分辨率的太阳红外光谱反演整层大气中某几种微量成分总含量的方法,用逐线积分( L B L) 法计算整层大气分子吸收,采用差分吸收法测量太阳红外光谱得到实际大气中微量成分的吸收,用最大似然法反演出微量成分的总量。详细分析了这种方法的可行性和反演精度,数值模拟分析和实际测量表明该方法有较高的精度,已把该方法用于监测实际大气中甲烷和水汽总含量的变化。 相似文献
950.